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12/27 - 12/29 Upper MW/GL's Multi-System Snow Event

Tom

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Folks, its just the pattern that keeps on givin' for our northern members.  Will Chicago set another abysmal record for the longest period between last flake & first flake?  The only saving grace would be the 2nd in a series of strong waves coming out of the SW during the 29th period for a possible front end thump of snow.  Let's dive in as I'm sure there are going to be a lot of folks in the GL's region and Upper MW counting their blessings during this coming week.

0z EPS...

1.png

 

2.png

  • Snow 1
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Jaycee
Jaycee

So this is what a weenie band looks like! 

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

We went from a few flurries to moderate snow very quickly.  The latest HRRR shows 1"/hr for a few hours.

jaster220
jaster220

...and I've joined the party! Looks like a sneaky last-minute scenario. I will take it! 1"+ per hour pound-town! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Servi

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Tom said:

Folks, its just the pattern that keeps on givin' for our northern members.  Will Chicago set another abysmal record for the longest period between last flake & first flake?  The only saving grace would be the 2nd in a series of strong waves coming out of the SW during the 29th period for a possible front end thump of snow.  Let's dive in as I'm sure there are going to be a lot of folks in the GL's region and Upper MW counting their blessings during this coming week.

0z EPS...

1.png

 

2.png

Looks like we're both riding the 2" line. Better than I thought, lol. Glad we have thread at least.

  • Like 2

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Not going to bubble-over with enthusiasm from this range, but this morning's Euro was showing me the Christmas giving spirit with a 4" front-end hit Monday morning. The GEM goes more 2-3" here, all others (can't count the NAM yet), are dustings to nada. I get Monday as holiday so it'd be nice to see.

12z Euro (to 18z Mon)

image.png.70d2588ffcb6fb64244355a33e6ddd31.png

12z GEM

image.png.ba6372543634bda82146196e6d2a6eac.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

GRR 

-Travel Impacts Possible Sunday Night/Monday Morning

Next fast moving Pacific system in active jet stream sends a
slug/burst of warm advection precip our way on Sunday night into
early Monday, starting as snow but transitioning to freezing rain
or rain. Current expectation is for a 1-3" snowfall north of I-96
and generally an inch or less south of I-96. Any ice
accumulations should be only a few hundredths.

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Hmmm, it looks like there may be a possibility the Chicago does not break the snowless streak if the 0z Euro is correct.  The 0z Ukie is similar on the front-end thump of snow with the second wave.

0z Ukie...

image.png

 

0z Euro...

1.png

 

 

For those up north, boy...you guys are in for quite a thrill from Mother Nature....#snowblitz

2.png

 

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Posted

The Euro shows >0º 850 temp over eastern Iowa when the precip moves in, then suddenly plunges the 850 temp, apparently due to dynamic cooling, before the warmer air moves back in.  I'm skeptical the atmosphere will be cold enough to support a good snow thump here.  Other models are mix to rain.

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season snowfall: 30.2"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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bud2380 Mentor

bud2380

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro shows >0º 850 temp over eastern Iowa when the precip moves in, then suddenly plunges the 850 temp, apparently due to dynamic cooling, before the warmer air moves back in.  I'm skeptical the atmosphere will be cold enough to support a good snow thump here.  Other models are mix to rain.

Just something we’ll have to monitor as we get closer. At least there’s something to keep an eye on, and honestly that’s half the fun for me. 

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Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Just something we’ll have to monitor as we get closer. At least there’s something to keep an eye on, and honestly that’s half the fun for me. 

12z EPS has gotten snowier from I-80 on north in IA…trends are positive…it’s even painting a couple inches here and into S MI.   I wasn’t banking on anything so this would be a bonus snow in my book.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The Euro was most bullish with snow here Tuesday, but warmed us up and removed most of the snow on last night's run.  Well, the snow is back this morning.  I'm not buying it.  No other model has anything like this.  I'm expecting 1" at most here.

image.thumb.png.db688815effb6ff7d6e0c0dbb4d39a11.png

season snowfall: 30.2"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Will some computers win?  No met here thinks we will see much snow.  Quick change over to frz and rain.  

3k NAM gives me only 0.1, but gets me up to 3" with the 2nd wave that looks to remain snow quite a bit longer.

 

nam3km_asnow_ferrier_ncus_61.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

...and I've joined the party! Looks like a sneaky last-minute scenario. I will take it! 1"+ per hour pound-town!

Winter Weather Advisory 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1049 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-270915-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0010.211227T0800Z-211227T1400Z/
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
1049 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow with some mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of around 2 inches with ice accumulations of a
  light glaze possible.

* WHERE...Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston,
  Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High impact snowfall rates appear likely
  during the 4AM to 7AM morning commute. Snowfall rates exceeding
  1 inch per hour will be possible with total snowfall
  accumulations of around 2 inches in less than 3 hours time.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling

 

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  • Snow 3

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

...and I've joined the party! Looks like a sneaky last-minute scenario. I will take it! 1"+ per hour pound-town!

Winter Weather Advisory 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1049 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-270915-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0010.211227T0800Z-211227T1400Z/
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
1049 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow with some mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of around 2 inches with ice accumulations of a
  light glaze possible.

* WHERE...Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston,
  Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High impact snowfall rates appear likely
  during the 4AM to 7AM morning commute. Snowfall rates exceeding
  1 inch per hour will be possible with total snowfall
  accumulations of around 2 inches in less than 3 hours time.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling

 

Who knows, maybe we get to December snowfall average by the time this month finishes.

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area

Oct'22:  Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22:  2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9"

Dec'22:  5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5"

Jan'23:  11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3"

Feb '23:  2.2"  Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4"

March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0"

(Season is @ 37.0")

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Posted

Just had a line of storms roll through and I saw a huge flash reflect off my computer and was like "what the heck was that?"...then it came, a sudden and deep rolling thunder...man, my whole house shook!  DEC thunderstorms seem to be the norm around here lately...

1.gif

  • Storm 3
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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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D**n, there must have been some intense banding with this 1st wave up north.  I wasn't paying much attn to the radar last night but there are some lolipop snowfall totals showing up in MN/N WI.  10-16" totals are quite that surprise if you ask me...

Screen Shot 2021-12-27 at 3.55.25 AM.png

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

About an inch so far has fallen and it continues to snow moderately. Winter Wonderland outside. Temps are at 30F.

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area

Oct'22:  Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22:  2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9"

Dec'22:  5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5"

Jan'23:  11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3"

Feb '23:  2.2"  Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4"

March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0"

(Season is @ 37.0")

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Madtown Experienced

Madtown

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Tom said:

D**n, there must have been some intense banding with this 1st wave up north.  I wasn't paying much attn to the radar last night but there are some lolipop snowfall totals showing up in MN/N WI.  10-16" totals are quite that surprise if you ask me...

Screen Shot 2021-12-27 at 3.55.25 AM.png

I'm not sayin those yellow and orange dots around Hayward can't be true or aren't true. but I will say with it being a huge snowmobile week there may have been one or two slanted rulers😀

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Sciascia Apprentice

Sciascia

Posted
Posted

WWA hoisted for N IL areas.

40703A15-9F54-4462-AF38-56934D61B12E.jpeg
  

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
203 PM CST Mon Dec 27 2021

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-103-104-280415-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0013.211228T1500Z-211229T0000Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake,
Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove,
Mundelein, Gurnee, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, Dixon, DeKalb,
Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove,
Lombard, Carol Stream, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg,
Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park,
and La Grange
203 PM CST Mon Dec 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Slippery travel conditions due to steady snow expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The peak snow rates of up to one half inch
  per hour are expected between noon and 3 pm CST. Snow totals are
  expected to range from 1 to 3 inches by the time snow ends.

Source

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...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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Sciascia Apprentice

Sciascia

Posted
Posted

If I remember correctly, the snow season didn’t really start for ORD/N IL until right after Christmas last year either. I recall finally being able to take off my Christmas lawn inflatable sometime in March because it had been buried under snow & ice.

EDIT: Here it is, from Dec. 29th & 30th. ORD had only seen 0.9 inches up until this storm. I got around 6” at my house.

 

AE6F019D-FE6E-4338-A902-84A6B4A5591C.png

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...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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