Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


Recommended Posts

Got just under a half inch of slushy stuff overnight. Wet snow still occasionally coming down, but temps are rising and soon should be cold rain.

Doesn't look super-snowy for Christmas Day here, but still should score some. That should stick around, and there will be chances for more later.

  • Like 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So Cliff was right…No white Christmas in western Wa unless you are at 1,000ft…Then some spotty snow showers Sunday night. Got it! 
Guess I will put the snow plow away. 
 

Sarcasm there…I still think majority of Western Wa sees snow by afternoon Christmas. 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To Wxmet from previous topic…. As a meteorologist, I’d expect more of a detailed and local specific forecast, rather than a generalization of the area as a whole. I’d bet my kids xmas presents that Bellingham is all snow tomorrow, with accumulation and extremely impaired travel conditions as the day goes on.  NWS is underestimating this event up here. Mark my words. 

  • Like 6
  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Time to start shifting from model riding to window licking!!!!  We had some slushy rain last night, and currently 34 after being at 37 around 7:30.

 

Let the games begin!!!!!

orangutan.jpg

  • Like 6
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2116454199_ScreenShot2021-12-24at8_52_08AM.thumb.png.282822f9c4f55695b1131af9220bdf91.png

Just re-posting this from the last thread since it got locked before many members likely got a chance to see it.

The "pro" part of "pro met" means that when these people make forecasts that don't align with raw deterministic model output, it doesn't mean they don't know what they're doing.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

To Wxmet from previous topic…. As a meteorologist, I’d expect more of a detailed and local specific forecast, rather than a generalization of the area as a whole. I’d bet my kids xmas presents that Bellingham is all snow tomorrow, with accumulation and extremely impaired travel conditions as the day goes on.  NWS is underestimating this event up here. Mark my words. 

Agree. We have a 991-997 low moving down the coast with around 1025-1032 high pressure up over Williams lake, ummm that's pretty good lol. And all this starts to happen SOON. 

  • Like 1

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m expecting mainly a messy mix of rain and wet snow until about sunset Saturday when things should start sticking just about everywhere. There will probably be spotty light accumulations (trace-1”) tonight into tomorrow morning but I think that will be the exception rather than the rule. Still think most of Western Washington will get 2-4” between Saturday afternoon and Monday morning with more in the spots where the boundary stalls. There are usual winners that see 8-10” in these prolonged boundary setups.

  • Like 3

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully the last time we split a thread this winter. For reference sake, it was easier when we had one thread. 

  • Like 3

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 6.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 6.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 3 (3.0" Jan 16th)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Facebook reminded me that K-Falls in 2010 did not have a white Christmas, and that was my 2nd snowiest winter (also 2nd snowiest December). 

It isn't meant to be sometimes. 

  • Like 1

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 6.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 6.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 3 (3.0" Jan 16th)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

GEM through Monday AM. The amount of shadowing over PDX is nasty. The Tuesday system is back on the menu now since the push of cold air has become weaker but until the euro also shows it consistently I'm not fully buying that yet.

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

I think the Euro will come around a bit more on the 12z. Too much overall support for that at the moment.

At this point that Tuesday system is probably our only realistic hope of salvaging a nice performing event down here. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks like the Arctic outflow has reached Abbotsford. 32F with snow and NE winds there. It's firmly entrenched in the BC interior. Pretty good progression so far.

The slow-bleed of arctic air is very favorable for my location. I'm firmly on TeamBrennan. My money is on my area getting nuked by end-of-day tomorrow, regardless of what NWS says.

  • Like 4
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every single model (with the exception of the HRW FV3--whatever that is--which shows 4" and the WRF which shows 2" and isn't in this loop) shows Skagit County getting at least 6" of snow in the next 48 hours. If I get no snow it would be pretty disappointing. There's some snow that falls after this time period on most models, but a number of models only go out to 48 hours.

models-2021122412-f048.sn10_acc.us_nw.thumb.gif.9987238f57c09cd351c1a35cb1082e5e.gif

  • Like 1

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Hopefully the last time we split a thread this winter. For reference sake, it was easier when we had one thread. 

100 posts in a thread filled with images and roughly a 1000 people viewing during a hot and heavy model run can make things a bit difficult for me.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Here's was the 06z Euro with the Tuesday system. Only goes to 90 hours so can't see the whole thing. 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-instant_ptype-0649600.png

Looks juicy

  • Like 2

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40F with some moderate rain.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just read the EPSL zone forecast and it doesn't really line up with the AFD. Calls for up to 1 inch tonight and up to 3 inches during the day tomorrow. No snow totals forecasted for tomorrow night or Sunday yet. I guess we are almost to the point of just seeing what happens and where the chips fall. That'll be nice.

I am, or rather I was, pretty excited about our chances out here and think we could be in for some surprises but based on NWS, Cliff, some posts on here... Maybe I should be tempering my expectations a bit. 1 inch of slop tomorrow and maybe another Sunday? Guess that's still good for Christmas weekend.

  • Like 1

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They finally might have a normal December for snowfall. 

I had 4.4" in 2020, 6.7" 2019, 5.8" 2018, 3.4" 2017. Bad run.

2021-12-24 12_19_10-CoCoRaHS - Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network.png

  • Like 2

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 6.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 6.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 3 (3.0" Jan 16th)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm pretty sold on the Central Puget Sound seeing snow tonight.  The NWS is picking up on that for the EPSL, but not for the Seattle metro area.  Still looking great for tomorrow evening / night.  Also....the 12z GFS keeps the party going longer.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

12z ICON annoyingly sends the Tuesday system too far offshore but does hint at some kind of deformation on the north side of it. At least the GFS, GEM and UKMET are onboard with Tuesday. Hopefully we will get the 12z Euro to bite too.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

The pattern is clearly in flux with the handling of initial vort. Could swing either way, but it’ll be a while before we can zero in. Hard to trust anything beyond about 72 hours at this point.

  • Like 7
  • Popcorn 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dropped to 38F heavy rain and now some splats mixing in.

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am a little confused, and concerned, that the TV mets and NWS are still only saying "half an inch or less". I am concerned for those who plan on traveling over the weekend, that may not be prepared, if this thing really goes nuts. What year was it, where we got hammered and people got stuck on the freeways after the Seahawks game? I don't remember details, so I dunno what was actually forecast for that event, but I feel like people weren't prepared for that....Not that I am EXPECTING this to be like that, but as we all know, it *can* happen. I dunno, I just have this feeling that many people are going to be ill-prepared, if some of these models verify. It's honestly probably wishful thinking on my part....to have tons and tons of snow. lol 

  • Like 4
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW the 6z control model on the EPS looked better than the 0z around day 6.  More GFS like.  As I've said this is likely to be a very good event for Seattle and Portland isn't out of the running.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

I am a little confused, and concerned, that the TV mets and NWS are still only saying "half an inch or less". I am concerned for those who plan on traveling over the weekend, that may not be prepared, if this thing really goes nuts. What year was it, where we got hammered and people got stuck on the freeways after the Seahawks game? I don't remember details, so I dunno what was actually forecast for that event, but I feel like people weren't prepared for that....Not that I am EXPECTING this to be like that, but as we all know, it *can* happen. I dunno, I just have this feeling that many people are going to be ill-prepared, if some of these models verify. It's honestly probably wishful thinking on my part....to have tons and tons of snow. lol 

Every person I have mentioned the possible snow to has no idea what I’m talking about. If 2-5 inches blankets the sound so many people will be completely blindsided. Event has been downplayed by forecasts all week 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z 4km WRF total snow through 4AM Monday. 

At least it came back down to earth a little bit...

ww_snow48.72.0000 (1).gif

Very good for our area.  The NWS forecast has winds shifting to NW for the EPSL tomorrow night.  A great direction for us.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really think Cliff, the NWS, and TV mets are so focused on the extreme cold they are sleeping on the impacts this snow this weekend will likely have.

The NWS is forecasting less than 1” total for Everett while also predicting 4 straight highs in the 20’s including a high of 22 on Monday. I’d raise the temps up a bit if I were them but increase the snow forecast as well.

  • Like 4

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z 4km WRF total snow through 4AM Monday. 

At least it came back down to earth a little bit...

ww_snow48.72.0000 (1).gif

Looks absolutely terrible for my area. Yikes. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...