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PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


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Still polishing off this victory cigar.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

It's a love-hate relationship.

I get excited seeing the autumn stuff at Hobby Lobby and Michaels being brought out in late June. The Christmas bits that get pulled out in mid July. Then seeing the ivy like creep of Christmas make its way through retail, Starbucks in late August, Costco in mid September, Christmas candy sometimes escaping their cardboard prisons to find freedom on a Safeway shelf by mid October. Then the siren songs of Mariah Carey and Bing Crosby flood the airwaves on November 2nd, and I love it.

I bask in it all, trying my best to wring out the peppermint flavored cheer that lasts just under sixty days. But after the 14th, the stress of the holiday becomes clearer and clearer, and some depression creeps out from an illuminated and flocked living room pine. My wife's christmas cookies and a house littered with wrapping prep and gifts for others do little to scrub clean the reminders that only the lucky will see more than sixty Christmas days. Having a strong long term memory hurts even more, as I clearly remember every Christmas Eve celebration as a child, the pre Mass Christmas Light drives with my Dad in the white F-350. Going through the 9pm Mass and stairung up at the song board as is it were a chronological chart of how much more remained at St Aloysius. Our festive drive back with the local Christmas station on. Coming home to find that Santa had filled our mobile home with presents.

One of my early memories of Christmas was spending it in a Dutchman travel trailer in the front yard of our soon to be built house. We had purple Christmas lights and a tiny tree on the kitchette table. I still remember falling alseep to those lights as the wind pelted the trailer. That year my brother and I got a MicroMachine Super Van with a little city, and about a pound of pogs. We watched the Rocko's Modern Life Christmas Special that was on Fox and ate cookies with little metal sugar balls.

There was the year we upgraded from the travel trailer to a double wide with no heat, and as our Christmas present, my Dad bought my brother and myself beds. We had one of those propane space heaters where the metal grate glowed orange and there were more than a few times where my Dad had to tell us not to try to put things in it. That year we also got two big green boxes of K'Nex to accompany our Girder+Panel and Legos from our Christmas trip from the previous year. These toys would eventually just end up in a single box of "building materials".

Then there was the Christmas I got my first computer, a special from the Boeing Surplus Store, Christmas of 98. My Dad had a wealthy friend who gifted me a bunch of computer games. My brother got a PS1 along with Spyro and Soviet Strike. We spent so many hours playing those games, I remember spending that break learning what a "BIOS" was and how to get Civilization to play in DOS.

Christmas 99 was spent at Buck Creek, and I have a memory that I will take to my grave of an evergreen caked in snow, illuminated like a secret treasure with glowing ruby, amber, sapphire, and emerald lights. Since then I have always wanted to live somewhere where this was a yearly occurrence. This was the year that I had figured that Santa was most likely not real. The year prior I had worked out this elaborate "Santa must be real" and that it was most likely Tim Allen.

The following year I learned that I could spoil my own Christmas by using a crayon to shade the relief imprint of the boxes I got. I ended up with Civilization III and Sim City 3000. I had to act surprised and realized that at the age of 11, the magic of Christmas could be lost if I chose to lose it.

Its these memories that get amplified with my December birthday and our many trips to Leavenworth that have started to wreck me. After my wife and I lost our first child, I just can't make it through the month without a breakdown. Its hard to talk about but this month starts to remind me of the life that has passed me by, the youth that slips away, and the finality of it all. Maybe its the Vitamin D, maybe its the pandemic, but there is something that has stripped the joy as the Advent Calendar opens to the 24th.

There is a sense of sadness and relief as the holiday fades before New Years Eve, and I force myself to enjoy these golden sun angles, the model riding, and try to remind myself that youth is relative and when my first child arrives, I can maybe give them the same gift of joy that my parents gave me.

real talk civ 3 was dope af

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39 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Rain? Geez, that's a bummer.

I also get super bummed out once Christmas is over, especially going to Costco and TJ Maxx and the like, and seeing the Christmas stuff just cleared out. It just ends so abruptly.

A while back I realized I now much prefer the build up to Christmas, whereas when I was young, Christmas day couldn't come soon enough. You just want to get there so you can open presents. But as an adult, you just take it all in and appreciate those other aspects; the decor, the shopping, the music, etc.

This is one thing I still can't get used to when I moved to the states. It's like everything is done and over after Christmas. In Puerto Rico we celebrate Three Kings Day (we get presents that day too) so we still in holiday mode till January 6th. 

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5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

real talk civ 3 was dope af

My first foray into XML and making super panzers that could spam the map with cities. Then there was that "real world mod" on Civfanatics that resulted in 15 minute turns. There was a summer day where I had taken over my Mom's computer to play that map, I would make a turn, spend about 5 minutes planning, go do something outside or play on my computer, and then come back for the next move.

12-20 turns in the game would crash and it didn't occur to me that I had wasted a day on nothing.

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazing that insolation can cause some melting even this time of year with temps below freezing and low dps.  Very little melting though.

Just drove into town earlier and some houses have some major icicles on them already.

Yes….just a smidge of melting.  Nothing major, briefly touched 30* though 😱

30/23 and currently 29* 

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Thankful to have made it back to Bellingham. Looks like the same flight was cancelled yesterday. Everything went smooth today though, other than having to wade through hundreds of bags at baggage claim due to cancelled connecting flights. I5 was pretty clean the whole way too, made it up in about an hour 45. Truly bummed that your flight got cancelled @TacomaWaWx. You seem to be taking it better than I would have though, and im glad you're in a city with good friends. 

 

Here's a pic of the fozzy at the remote lot before brushing and scrapping. 

20211228_110924.jpg

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty good agreement with the Euro there. 

Offshore trough moves in over the West Coast but alas the block breaks down.

Guess it has to break down sometime. Hopefully it can reform again. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

My niece sent me this…..ouch!

 

357BEE2C-30E9-4547-87AF-1B385C6A252D.png

Interesting that the daily snowfall record PDX broke the other day was from 1951 as well.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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22/12 on the day, currently 20. 
So judging by some posts here this is pretty much it, warming, a trace of snow on Thursday and then back to chillish normal. 🤮 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

22/12 on the day, currently 20. 
So judging by some posts here this is pretty much it, warming, a trace of snow on Thursday and then back to chillish normal. 🤮 

We have dry and sub-freezing tomorrow, a decent shot for a little reload Thursday, an then another dry and sub-freezing day Friday. Even after that, it won't take much change for things to get really interesting again.

I'm thrilled!

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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The 12z GEFS didn't look too bad at the 500mb level. Does anyone have a good link to the 850mb spaghetti ensemble chart? I need to bookmark that again so I don't always have to ask. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

22/12 on the day, currently 20. 
So judging by some posts here this is pretty much it, warming, a trace of snow on Thursday and then back to chillish normal. 🤮 

That about sums it up.

Cold, little colder, warmer, colder, then warm until February.

Little snow, dry, little snow, dry, then rain until spring.

Time to pack this thing up and hit the road.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 12z GEFS didn't look too bad at the 500mb level. Does anyone have a good link to the 850mb spaghetti ensemble chart? I need to bookmark that again so I don't always have to ask. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=201&geoid=136221&lid=ENS&bw=true

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That about sums it up.

Cold, little colder, warmer, colder, then warm until February.

Little snow, dry, little snow, dry, then rain until spring.

Time to pack this thing up and hit the road.

I think you're being too bullish.

Cold, Coldish, Warmer, Mild, then Mild Zonal until April
Flurries, Dry, Flurries to Rain, Dry, Rain until May

Winter to resume in 2025.

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Ensemble mean is actually pretty decent as we go into January. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 850's look good through New Years Eve.

Hope we can squeeze out some more snowfall.

They actually don't look too bad beyond Jan. 1 but obviously from the looks of the chart above they are trending up a tad.

I bet that block out there in the ocean reforms, rebuilds or reappears one more time before winter is over.

Sometimes these patterns tend repeat themselves.

Fingers crossed.  It's pretty much a lock though.

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Just now, iFred said:

I think you're being too bullish.

Cold, Coldish, Warmer, Mild, then Mild Zonal until April
Flurries, Dry, Flurries to Rain, Dry, Rain until May

Winter to resume in 2025.

This actually sounds much more reasonable than my forecast. @MossMan Here's a more accurate description of our upcoming weather.

Maybe if I escape to Sioux Falls now I can get in just before Judah's experimental AI model is proven to be correct and they drop into the frozen tundra. No real point in hanging around here any longer.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This actually sounds much more reasonable than my forecast. @MossMan Here's a more accurate description of our upcoming weather.

Maybe if I escape to Sioux Falls now I can get in just before Judah's experimental AI model is proven to be correct and they drop into the frozen tundra. No real point in hanging around here any longer.

Here's the experimental learning model. Unfortunately for Eastern weenies it is probably transitory and the contiguous US will be blasted with zonal flow a few days later before a ridge sets up in the sweet spot and pumps off a late January arctic blast into the PNW. February and March should be wet and cool too. Would love to know Phil's thoughts if he is able to type while wearing 6 masks.  

gfs_z500a_namer_62.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like SEA is going to peak at 28 today.  Still downright impressive.

On another note...the sky looks very close to snow here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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15 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

The 850's look good through New Years Eve.

Hope we can squeeze out some more snowfall.

They actually don't look too bad beyond Jan. 1 but obviously from the looks of the chart above they are trending up a tad.

I bet that block out there in the ocean reforms, rebuilds or reappears one more time before winter is over.

Sometimes these patterns tend repeat themselves.

Fingers crossed.  It's pretty much a lock though.

Another quick shot of winter around the 5th or 6th is looking decently likely also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Snyder's new video doesn't sound too optimistic for Thursday. Mentions maybe 1-2 inches for Puget Sound with some rain/snow mix or even just plain ol rain entering into the picture before freezing over again Thursday night. Oof.

 

925s never go above freezing as per the models.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Heavy pixie dust snow!!!

 

I'm think we get some marine air / Arctic air interaction tonight.  That sky is really snowy looking.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 hour ago, iFred said:

It's a love-hate relationship.

I get excited seeing the autumn stuff at Hobby Lobby and Michaels being brought out in late June. The Christmas bits that get pulled out in mid July. Then seeing the ivy like creep of Christmas make its way through retail, Starbucks in late August, Costco in mid September, Christmas candy sometimes escaping their cardboard prisons to find freedom on a Safeway shelf by mid October. Then the siren songs of Mariah Carey and Bing Crosby flood the airwaves on November 2nd, and I love it.

I bask in it all, trying my best to wring out the peppermint flavored cheer that lasts just under sixty days. But after the 14th, the stress of the holiday becomes clearer and clearer, and some depression creeps out from an illuminated and flocked living room pine. My wife's christmas cookies and a house littered with wrapping prep and gifts for others do little to scrub clean the reminders that only the lucky will see more than sixty Christmas days. Having a strong long term memory hurts even more, as I clearly remember every Christmas Eve celebration as a child, the pre Mass Christmas Light drives with my Dad in the white F-350. Going through the 9pm Mass and stairung up at the song board as is it were a chronological chart of how much more remained at St Aloysius. Our festive drive back with the local Christmas station on. Coming home to find that Santa had filled our mobile home with presents.

One of my early memories of Christmas was spending it in a Dutchman travel trailer in the front yard of our soon to be built house. We had purple Christmas lights and a tiny tree on the kitchette table. I still remember falling alseep to those lights as the wind pelted the trailer. That year my brother and I got a MicroMachine Super Van with a little city, and about a pound of pogs. We watched the Rocko's Modern Life Christmas Special that was on Fox and ate cookies with little metal sugar balls.

There was the year we upgraded from the travel trailer to a double wide with no heat, and as our Christmas present, my Dad bought my brother and myself beds. We had one of those propane space heaters where the metal grate glowed orange and there were more than a few times where my Dad had to tell us not to try to put things in it. That year we also got two big green boxes of K'Nex to accompany our Girder+Panel and Legos from our Christmas trip from the previous year. These toys would eventually just end up in a single box of "building materials".

Then there was the Christmas I got my first computer, a special from the Boeing Surplus Store, Christmas of 98. My Dad had a wealthy friend who gifted me a bunch of computer games. My brother got a PS1 along with Spyro and Soviet Strike. We spent so many hours playing those games, I remember spending that break learning what a "BIOS" was and how to get Civilization to play in DOS.

Christmas 99 was spent at Buck Creek, and I have a memory that I will take to my grave of an evergreen caked in snow, illuminated like a secret treasure with glowing ruby, amber, sapphire, and emerald lights. Since then I have always wanted to live somewhere where this was a yearly occurrence. This was the year that I had figured that Santa was most likely not real. The year prior I had worked out this elaborate "Santa must be real" and that it was most likely Tim Allen.

The following year I learned that I could spoil my own Christmas by using a crayon to shade the relief imprint of the boxes I got. I ended up with Civilization III and Sim City 3000. I had to act surprised and realized that at the age of 11, the magic of Christmas could be lost if I chose to lose it.

Its these memories that get amplified with my December birthday and our many trips to Leavenworth that have started to wreck me. After my wife and I lost our first child, I just can't make it through the month without a breakdown. Its hard to talk about but this month starts to remind me of the life that has passed me by, the youth that slips away, and the finality of it all. Maybe its the Vitamin D, maybe its the pandemic, but there is something that has stripped the joy as the Advent Calendar opens to the 24th.

There is a sense of sadness and relief as the holiday fades before New Years Eve, and I force myself to enjoy these golden sun angles, the model riding, and try to remind myself that youth is relative and when my first child arrives, I can maybe give them the same gift of joy that my parents gave me.

The last couple Christmases have been ruff. Lots of moving parts to it, but the kids are getting older, the pandemic, some additional extended family dynamic issues have definitely compounded to make things more visceral. One thing I can say without a doubt is that Christmas with little ones around is Christmas at its best!

For us weather weenies, this post Christmas could be rough. The post-event malaise combined with the post-Christmas fog can take its toll. Everyone take care of yourselves!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I'm really surprised there is talk about it not being an all snow event for the Seattle area.  The low track just doesn't support any outcome other than snow given all of the cold air in place.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

I’ve never seen such a high snow:snowman ratio, just not very many snowmen/snowpersons out there.  I think we have an iProblem

Up here you can't make a snowball because it's just fluff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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