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PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


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4 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Target already has valentines candy out.

Valentine's has never been high on my list of holidays. Though it is my half birthday... An event which becomes more depressing with the passage of time. 

  • lol 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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33 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is what the NWS is going with through 4pm Friday. Calling for 2-3"  most of the areas using the NBM. 5" is the high end for Seattle. 

 

So 2” for me at the high end…I’m going to blow that out of the frozen water. 5-6” for me…Book it! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Up here you can't make a snowball because it's just fluff.

That was our problem the past few days. Pretty wet now, so maybe the kiddo and I will make one tonight. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm really surprised there is talk about it not being an all snow event for the Seattle area.  The low track just doesn't support any outcome other than snow given all of the cold air in place.

I was a little surprised to hear Snyder say that as well. Even NWS SEA thinks it will stay snow from Olympia/Chehalis northward, at the very least. Which, if they think it will be all snow, it probably will be (assuming no drastic change in the models) considering they are usually the first to mention the possibility of rain mixing in. Granted, Snyder was looking at the ECMWF surface temp map showing above freezing at the time he said that so maybe he was just talking model output directly and didn't mean it as his forecast.

I don't think most places in Western WA will have a problem staying snow. I think the larger issue will be shadowing and general precip amounts. NWS seems to think shadowing will only be a short lived temporary problem and some models have been under-forecasting precip this week anyways so those two problems could easily be fixed at the last minute.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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6 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

34F and flurry rain mix here 🤮

I think its very low level moisture right now. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow for tonight's system per 18z Euro vs 12z...

image.png

I am just gonna keep an eye on the radar again, models haven't exactly handled the small impulses all that well, although they were close with last nights, but didn't show the extra inch I got today.

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Portland NWS seems WAY to aggressive with their temps still. Low of 23 tonight at PDX and 20 tomorrow night... Seems 5-8 degrees to cold, but I would love to be wrong. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Been a beautifully cold day here in Spokane had a high of 17 and a low of 8. Looking forward to being colder tonight. With no wind and low humidity it does not even feel that cold out. Truly delightful.😊 Been pretty much a snowless event here, but overall the cold has been awesome! I love it here!!!

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Looking at the latest 18z ensemble 850mb temperature plumes I see no way we have anything but snow on Thursday.  The mean, control, and operational never even reach -6.  How does that support anything but snow given this situation?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oddly enough, we are getting a freezing rain/graupel/pellet type thing going on right now. Definitely not fully snow. 

Temp of 27.

Not even sure how that's possible given the profile.  Must be super cooled somehow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I was hoping 18z Euro might reverse the trend a little bit but looks like it continues to cut totals for most.

Maybe the 00z Euro will?

image.png

Looks slightly better down here actually... 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not even sure how that's possible given the profile.  Must be super cooled somehow.

Some kind of warm layer in there. Probably fairly low. Happens a lot in the midwest behind departing storms. Not sure the physics behind it, but remember clearly a big snow event out in Oklahoma in January 2010 where behind the system we had temps around 20, very cold 850mb temps, but a couple hours of freezing drizzle. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I was hoping 18z Euro might reverse the trend a little bit but looks like it continues to cut totals for most...

image.png

The track of the low on the ECMWF is a bit tight.  It causes lot more south wind than the track the GFS shows.  The GFS has been better in regards to tracks lately FWIW.  Even with the ECMWF track our area would be almost calm due to the offshore component to the gradient.  I'm think it will go to more of a GFS track or they will meet in the middle.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some kind of warm layer in there. Probably fairly low. Happens a lot in the midwest behind departing storms. Not sure the physics behind it, but remember clearly a big snow event out in Oklahoma in January 2010 where behind the system we had temps around 20, very cold 850mb temps, but a couple hours of freezing drizzle. 

There isn't.  The profile is all well below freezing here.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 hour ago, mtep said:

Thankful to have made it back to Bellingham. Looks like the same flight was cancelled yesterday. Everything went smooth today though, other than having to wade through hundreds of bags at baggage claim due to cancelled connecting flights. I5 was pretty clean the whole way too, made it up in about an hour 45. Truly bummed that your flight got cancelled @TacomaWaWx. You seem to be taking it better than I would have though, and im glad you're in a city with good friends. 

 

Here's a pic of the fozzy at the remote lot before brushing and scrapping. 

20211228_110924.jpg

Yeah it’s not a total loss. I fully got to enjoy February 2021 so it’s not like I am totally snow starved. 

  • Like 4

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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I've heard of rare cases where precip can form as super cooled water in the low levels even if the entire column is sub freezing.  This must be one of those.  Probably won't last.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Absolutely beautiful up here in the Okanagan.  When we arrived at cabin it was 2 degrees above at noon! Checked my station and we hit -18 last night. Coldest there since I've had my cabin. 6 years. 

20211228_115856.jpg

20211228_150654.jpg

20211228_111355.jpg

20211228_111452.jpg

Having sun with fresh snow is as good as it gets.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very unlikely that PDX goes below the 26 they recorded earlier in this event.

Some cold air is getting into the lower Columbia east of the mountains now.  Who knows.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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People are giving up way too easily on the Thursday event.  Besides that tomorrow is supposed to be a colder day in the Seattle area with some clearing.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was excited to see that 18 below. 

Should be impressive over there tonight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Absolutely beautiful up here in the Okanagan.  When we arrived at cabin it was 2 degrees above at noon! Checked my station and we hit -18 last night. Coldest there since I've had my cabin. 6 years. 

20211228_115856.jpg

20211228_150654.jpg

20211228_111355.jpg

20211228_111452.jpg

So beautiful!!!!! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very unlikely that PDX goes below the 26 they recorded earlier in this event.

I just don't understand why they have been so cold with this whole event. They were forecasting widespread mid-20s last night, which made no sense with the system coming in. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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31 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Been a beautifully cold day here in Spokane had a high of 17 and a low of 8. Looking forward to being colder tonight. With no wind and low humidity it does not even feel that cold out. Truly delightful.😊 Been pretty much a snowless event here, but overall the cold has been awesome! I love it here!!!

Yeah so much better than west of the Cascades!

I'm surprised you didn't get much snow though. 

-2F/-19F here today. 🥶😍

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just don't understand why they have been so cold with this whole event. They were forecasting widespread mid-20s last night, which made no sense with the system coming in. 

They are just straight up not very accurate. They have been awful with winter events over the last few years. 

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