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PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


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5 minutes ago, JBolin said:

WTF is this s***?

Unsure but I can tell the numbers are already too high. It shows Seattle getting over an inch, and per the NWS Seattle will go from the 20's early Thursday morning to above freezing with a rain/snow mix and then back into the 20's Friday morning.  Under 1" total snow accumulation in Seattle.

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I know Jim has mentioned and we have recently discussed in PM's that SE King/Pierce Counties can do well with a low crossing over the Cascades to the SSE, similar to the track this low takes. It can lead to some backfill precip behind the departing low hanging around for longer down here. Looks like that's what the Euro is picking up on.

Could lead to us EPSL/S Sound folks ending up closer to the 4 inches of the 2-4 range by the time all is said and done Friday morning. Will be fun to track regardless!

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Shows some light snow hanging around the Central/South Sound tomorrow evening and into Friday morning to help pad totals and fill in the holes a bit more.

1640930400-AwQAOsi0OJ4.png

1640952000-UU1xBJoLZEw.png

12z euro kuchera.png

Ya I was wondering if there low would stall at all like Sundays low which was also supposed to run through quicker but ended up taking its time. I haven’t look at the overall pattern to see if it would lead to stalling tithe low around the PNW.  If it did stall at all I could see more snow than expected but wouldn’t put money on that. 

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29 minutes ago, JBolin said:

It isn't when you lose power for days, even weeks, can't get groceries, firewood, medication, etc.

 

Just ask anyone south of Tacoma in 2012.

I despise freezing rain.  I work in Park maintenance and the damage to trees and the cleanup required from a ZR event is something I never want to see again.  2012 was bad!

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8 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Ya I was wondering if there low would stall at all like Sundays low which was also supposed to run through quicker but ended up taking its time. I haven’t look at the overall pattern to see if it would lead to stalling tithe low around the PNW.  If it did stall at all I could see more snow than expected but wouldn’t put money on that. 

I don't think this one has too much of a chance to stall out. The 500mb trough driving it is fairly progressive which is why it's shooting down from AK over the course of today, will be at our doorstep tonight, and more or less east of the state by Friday.

Our best shot of over performance will be less of a shadow than modeled (which, actually, the progressive nature of the low lends itself to this idea), more precip with the initial front than we think, or more precip behind the departing low than what is currently shown. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I don't think this one has too much of a chance to stall out. The 500mb trough driving it is fairly progressive which is why it's shooting down from AK over the course of today, will be at our doorstep tonight, and more or less east of the state by Friday.

Our best shot of over performance will be less of a shadow than modeled (which, actually, the progressive nature of the low lends itself to this idea), more precip with the initial front than we think, or more precip behind the departing low than what is currently shown. 

It has been nice to see the snow totals creep back up ever so slightly across the models last night/this morning. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, Prairiedog said:

How do your temps compare with Wintrop?  I'm guessing you get a little less snow? 

Is your cabin west of Omak general area? 

Interesting question, hopefully he answers it  I think he is NE of Omak based on the picture he once posted which I have copied below  His cabin is where the red dot is.  I'm guessing he gets more snow than Winthrop, which is more in the valley. His previous pictures also look more snowy than Winthrop.  Higher altitude I think and probably colder. 

Winthrop is cold, but a relatively dry area compared to a lot of areas that are located in the east slopes or nearby higher altitude areas. Winthrop averages "only" about 70 inches of snow per year, where nearby Mazama averages 120 inches and even my town Leavenworth, which is further south and at a lower altitude, averages 94.  Both of those areas are much wetter overall.

image.png.ebd16b3b3008419aaf3546bf11a11f92.png

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

South Lake Tahoe averages lows in the teens dec-feb and records are in the -20s

I meant when it's snowing we rarely get snow below 25F. Kayla was getting snow while below 0!

We get a lot of morning lows in the 5F-20F range but daytime can still reach the mid 40's 

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29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like timing has sped up just a bit with light snow falling by 10PM tonight...

image.png

I like how most of the snow falls during the dark hours.  Did you notice the period of extended snowfall for south King County on this run?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting question, hopefully he answers it  I think he is NE of Omak based on the picture he once posted which I have copied below  His cabin is where the red dot is.  I'm guessing he gets more snow than Winthrop, which is more in the valley. His previous pictures also look more snowy than Winthrop.  Higher altitude I think and probably colder. 

Winthrop is cold, but a relatively dry area compared to a lot of areas that are located in the east slopes or nearby higher altitude areas. Winthrop averages "only" about 70 inches of snow per year, where nearby Mazama averages 120 inches and even my town Leavenworth, which is further south and at a lower altitude, averages 94.  Both of those areas are much wetter overall.

image.png.ebd16b3b3008419aaf3546bf11a11f92.png

I would take the Winthrop climate.  Who needs more snow than they get, and the cold is incredible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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I'm noticing the NBM is doing the same thing it did with the Sunday storm - cutting totals back drastically once we get within about 24 hours of the event. It very consistently showed Sunday being quite the snowy day in the days leading up to it but by Friday night/Saturday it drew way back on totals and only showed an inch or two on Sunday. Weird behavior. 

Seems like this model is best used the mid range. Once we get within the immediate short term some funkiness  starts to happen, at least when it comes to snow totals.

12z NBM no bueno.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Moments like these make me want to move to Minneapolis sight unseen.

Does it stick around all season though? MN started getting blizzards a month ago but then decided it wanted tornadoes back in December. lol

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I like how most of the snow falls during the dark hours.  Did you notice the period of extended snowfall for south King County on this run?

Yup, Euro picking up on that backfill that we were talking about yesterday. Nice to see that.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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25 minutes ago, MossMan said:

16 degrees at 10am…Ahhh this is PERFECT AND I NEVER WANT IT TO LEAVE until mid March. 

762FFA79-F231-423E-8AF7-9BEBC45D89A3.jpeg

This is as good as it gets.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Looks like we have a good shot at coming up with six consecutive freezing max temps here if we can keep it 32 or below ahead of the system tonight.  I suppose there is even an outside chance of New Years day staying down there for some places.  For locations up north this cold wave will go down as a very major one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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The NWS is taking a pretty big chance with such a low snowfall forecast when the two big models show at least ok amounts.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would take the Winthrop climate.  Who needs more snow than they get, and the cold is incredible.

They have high quality snow for sure.  But if I moved there I would go to nearby Mazama.  Winthrop is a bit too dusty for my taste and the hills are pretty brown and lacking of trees.  Pretty dry overall. Reminds me of the scenery around Cashmere.  Sun Mountain Lodge, close to Winthrop, is another world though.  

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35F and cloudy. Still snow on the ground. What a fun few days this has been!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Anybody see the jet suppression on the GEM?! 

408F547E-F1C2-4AC5-8848-D4985E2DAF98.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The NWS is a lot snowier for the EPSL.  They are going for 2 to 5 inches.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Does it stick around all season though? MN started getting blizzards a month ago but then decided it wanted tornadoes back in December. lol

Some winters there can be snow cover from early November to early April. At that point though it’s brown snow and grime. Most years there is a month and a half of cover, a thaw, and then more snow. I’m missing the link for it, but there was an article out there that showed that the a couple times a decade, the Twin Cities will have longer snow cover than Anchorage.

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15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

They have high quality snow for sure.  But if I moved there I would go to nearby Mazama.  Winthrop is a bit too dusty for my taste and the hills are pretty brown and lacking of trees.  Pretty dry overall. Reminds me of the scenery around Cashmere.  Sun Mountain Lodge, close to Winthrop, is another world though.  

I like the forest to steppe transitions zones.  Kind of an open feeling to it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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