Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

Some winters there can be snow cover from early November to early April. At that point though it’s brown snow and grime. Most years there is a month and a half of cover, a thaw, and then more snow. I’m missing the link for it, but there was an article out there that showed that the a couple times a decade, the Twin Cities will have longer snow cover than Anchorage.

That's interesting, thanks. There was never more than a month of ground cover at my last place. 

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Considering the first one brought widespread 1-1.5" to the Puget Sound area, I have a hard time imagining the second not doing at least as well tomorrow morning:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_1.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_5.png

Good point.  That system the other night was way better than expected.  This one is way juicier.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

925mb.gif?1640805187309

No way anyone gets rain in the interior.  The cold is just too entrenched.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Noticed the 12z GFS was basically completely dry till Sunday afternoon and actually flips the Puget Sound area back to some heavy wet snow Sunday night into Monday morning. Euro isn't too close to that though.

 

  • Like 1
  • scream 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Are you back?

Nah, he just has a 3,000 mile long shovel. Gotta get a jump on it before the next storm hits tonight.

  • Excited 2

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

I don't think this one has too much of a chance to stall out. The 500mb trough driving it is fairly progressive which is why it's shooting down from AK over the course of today, will be at our doorstep tonight, and more or less east of the state by Friday.

Our best shot of over performance will be less of a shadow than modeled (which, actually, the progressive nature of the low lends itself to this idea), more precip with the initial front than we think, or more precip behind the departing low than what is currently shown. 

Both of the overperformance options you outlined seem likely. If the last few days have shown us anything, it's that there will be more precip invading the Sound than forecasted.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Greenlake is trying really hard to freeze, doesn't look like it's gonna make it this time.

greenlake2.png

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Then again it may just be a matter of timing

image.thumb.png.f18232f896de3291177d5c0900eb275c.png

EURO/EPS wants to float the block away. Other models want to suppress it more. GEFS looked like it wanted to build GOA ridging with the bulk of the cold air going into the center of the country. Personally I like that solution, as it primes us for retrogression later on. The EURO is just flat out ugly. I was talking to @IbrChristhis morning, and he was saying the ensembles are really struggling after about the 7-10 period and it's still completely up in the air. Guess it wouldn't be to surprising if January sucked AGAIN, but there is still hope. From a Nina perspective we would probably be primed for a cold February/March if we torch again in January. We may be primed for that regardless. 

All in all, it looks like some pretty chilly troughing early-middle next week and then what happens after that is kind of a crapshoot at this point. 

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO/EPS wants to float the block away. Other models want to suppress it more. GEFS looked like it wanted to build GOA ridging with the bulk of the cold air going into the center of the country. Personally I like that solution, as it primes us for retrogression later on. The EURO is just flat out ugly. I was talking to @IbrChristhis morning, and he was saying the ensembles are really struggling after about the 7-10 period and it's still completely up in the air. Guess it wouldn't be to surprising if January sucked AGAIN, but there is still hope. From a Nina perspective we would probably be primed for a cold February/March if we torch again in January. We may be primed for that regardless. 

All in all, it looks like some pretty chilly troughing early-middle next week and then what happens after that is kind of a crapshoot at this point. 

Agree there is a lot of hope.  After all, Nina's and Ninos usually don't start to kick in until mid January.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Up to 31 now, that’s a 7 degree climb in 2 hours. Drippage is commencing. Starting to worry about precip switching to rain tonight. Hoping not, but wasn’t expecting to be this warm today. A 4th day under freezing is starting to appear unlikely.

You should be good @GHweatherChris might get rain this event unfortunately. However, you never know tbh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, gusky said:

Greenlake is trying really hard to freeze, doesn't look like it's gonna make it this time.

greenlake2.png

Even with the benefit of the significantly colder temperatures up this way, most of our lakes, with the exception of the smallest ponds, are not yet safely skateable. Just needs more time. And if we get a reload soon, there just might be enough.

  • Like 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Agree there is a lot of hope.  After all, Nina's and Ninos usually don't start to kick in until mid January.

A 5-7 day "torch" would also make some sense, but I am not super concerned that the pattern would get locked in. Something like the 12z GFS would be ideal for setting us up for a below average month. As we end up with some chilly weather, as the ridge is not amplified enough and to close to deliver arctic air. On the other hand it wouldn't take much for it to reorganize a little closer to the sweet spot. Right now I think the GEM or EURO solutions are a bit more likely around day 10, than the GFS.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Up to 31 now, that’s a 7 degree climb in 2 hours. Drippage is commencing. Starting to worry about precip switching to rain tonight. Hoping not, but wasn’t expecting to be this warm today. A 4th day under freezing is starting to appear unlikely.

You should be fine. The surface temps rising above freezing today under sunny skies with low dew points (OLM is 30/21 right now) won’t impact the chance of snow tomorrow morning. As long as the low stays to your West and South it will be all snow and right now all models still show that for everyone Olympia North.

  • Like 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO/EPS wants to float the block away. Other models want to suppress it more. GEFS looked like it wanted to build GOA ridging with the bulk of the cold air going into the center of the country. Personally I like that solution, as it primes us for retrogression later on. The EURO is just flat out ugly. I was talking to @IbrChristhis morning, and he was saying the ensembles are really struggling after about the 7-10 period and it's still completely up in the air. Guess it wouldn't be to surprising if January sucked AGAIN, but there is still hope. From a Nina perspective we would probably be primed for a cold February/March if we torch again in January. We may be primed for that regardless. 

All in all, it looks like some pretty chilly troughing early-middle next week and then what happens after that is kind of a crapshoot at this point. 

A reset feels like the natural progression at this point. A period of undercut westerlies has felt like it was on the horizon for sometime early next month for a while now, with a messy transition in there for at least some folks (probably north of Seattle). The suppression potential is probably the biggest question mark, but once the block’s retrogression/amplification takes place it feels like it’s set in motion. Once they make it to such a latitude they rarely remain stable.

  • Like 4

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is weird. The WRF and GFS differ substantially on low placement tomorrow morning. GFS brings the low just South of Olympia at hour 27 but the WRF has it up near Sequim at the same time which is like 60 miles further North and would bring warmer air way further North to at least Seattle. Looking closer the rain/snow line does get to about Olympia tomorrow morning on the GFS.

 

slp.27.0000.gif

prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

  • Like 1
  • scream 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

A reset feels like the natural progression at this point. A period of undercut westerlies has felt like it was on the horizon for sometime early next month for a while now, with a messy transition in there for at least some folks (probably north of Seattle). The suppression potential is probably the biggest question mark, but once the block’s retrogression/amplification takes place it feels like it’s set in motion. Once they make it to such a latitude they rarely remain stable.

If the EURO is right at least it's happening early enough the much maligned late January/early February period is still on the table. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had a temp spike up to 26! Warmest since I believe the very early morning hours of the 26th if I am remembering correctly. Now the clouds are starting to roll in and the temp went back to 24.8 DP 21.0. 

65D3078F-BD48-441D-95D3-2D9580140958.jpeg

  • Like 6

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is weird. The WRF and GFS differ substantially on low placement tomorrow morning. GFS brings the low just South of Olympia at hour 27 but the WRF has it up near Sequim at the same time which is like 60 miles further North and would bring warmer air way further North to at least Seattle. Looking closer the rain/snow line does get to about Olympia tomorrow morning on the GFS.

What does the EPS/Euro show for the low placement? I assume closer to the GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27.7 here. Would be surprised if we stayed below 28, but as the clouds come in it might actually happen.

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprised Seattle NWS hasn't issued any Winter Weather Advisories for tomorrow morning. Even 1-2" of widespread snow with roads already below freezing will likely be pretty impactful to the morning commute.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...