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PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


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OMG this run is amazing when I really look at it.  Nearly continuous cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

OMG this run is amazing when I really look at it.  Nearly continuous cold.

Nice looking regional snowstorm after the ice storm. Not sure how that would end up looking. Would be a wild couple of days!

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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One thing I've noticed is the GFS has really been emphasizing King County being quite cold due to outflow from the passes next week.  Quite dramatic effect.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Nice looking regional snowstorm after the ice storm. Not sure how that would end up looking. Would be a wild couple of days!

It is showing one of the ugliest (from a 500mb perspective) cold spells I've ever seen.  There is support for this type of solution from other models too.  Much of it relies on really odd surface pressure anomalies hinted at by most models.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

18z NAM and RGEM showing snow arriving earlier now. Both of them have snow down to PDX by midnight.

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_15.thumb.png.b5bb3bc343544a6902a418f0bd0da893.pngrgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.thumb.png.199c3104a21ed12c408b048f702232aa.png

The timing on this thing is just moving up on every run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

18z NAM and RGEM showing snow arriving earlier now. Both of them have snow down to PDX by midnight.

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_15.thumb.png.b5bb3bc343544a6902a418f0bd0da893.pngrgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.thumb.png.199c3104a21ed12c408b048f702232aa.png

That shadowing on the NAM is a little too close for comfort.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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Got to 28.2 today, so we stayed lower than we got yesterday (28.6).

Down to 27.1 now with the sun obscured by high clouds.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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Just can't get over how cold this run is.  Cold offshore flow (sometimes northerly) the entire time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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35 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Looking ahead to next Monday night:

It always catches my eye when I see pepto over Willamette Valley

Gfs has been insistent in having one of these Anafront scenarios Monday night.  Only things going for it might be that it won’t be 57 degrees at the start of it and that it is happening at night.  
Models only paint 1-1.5” 24 hour precip totals with highest precip rates around .15”/hr.  That is not enough for me to be impressed.  Maybe it cools down enough that we get an inch of almost molten slush.

still 6 days away.

We average about 10" of snow in January, could easily hit it next week. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Under an inch on this mornings update to 2-3 now. I mean, I’ll take it but to my knowledge there’s been no major shift in the models to justify the change. NWS is all over the place. 

FC455E06-0E0D-4423-A4FA-3F5DF6772413.jpeg

Forecasts can change fairly considerably between shifts - just depends on who is the lead forecaster at the time. I believe Kovacik is for the day shift today and she generally tends to at least consider the snowier option moreso than some other mets over there who only like to go with climo (i.e. "it will rain for much of the interior"). Probably explains the thinking of a bit higher totals vs the earlier shift.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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I had a really great hike today in Kitsap Peninsula. 1650ft up there was 12-15 inches of snow with 18" snowdrifts. Everything was white and there was enough snow to create snow monsters and bend alder trees and branches of pines down to the ground. Blowing snow and it was really cold. Brutal winter weather conditions up above 1000 ft in the Kitsap Peninsula.

Washington State Patrol was on a snowmobile checking for people who got lost or fell on the trail because conditions could be deadly for people stranded up there. They said that for the Bremerton/Central Kitsap Peninsula area, expect 3-4" inches for tonight.

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Forecasts can change fairly considerably between shifts - just depends on who is the lead forecaster at the time. I believe Kovacik is for the day shift today and she generally tends to at least consider the snowier option moreso than some other mets over there who only like to go with climo (i.e. "it will rain for much of the interior"). Probably explains the thinking of a bit higher totals vs the earlier shift.

Agreed. You can see it in the discussions too. For the first storm one discussion said 3-5 in the lowlands and the next said 1-3 with absolutely no reference to the idea this was different than what the last shift said or what had changed. It feels like the shifts don’t talk to one another. I also miss when Logan, Jaya and Courtney all worked there and posted on Twitter regularly and gave insight into their (NWS SEA) thinking. Logan is the only one still there and he’s been dead silent this season. It feels like a black box now. 
 

Edit: Kovacik is on Twitter too but doesn’t talk about the forecast much. 

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Looks like they sort of got the road in the park cleared... lol. We will have a midnight high of 32. 3 sub-freezing highs out of this, not bad. We only had one last winter, and I think one in January 2020. 

ORE214 at Silver Creek

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Forecasts can change fairly considerably between shifts - just depends on who is the lead forecaster at the time. I believe Kovacik is for the day shift today and she generally tends to at least consider the snowier option moreso than some other mets over there who only like to go with climo (i.e. "it will rain for much of the interior"). Probably explains the thinking of a bit higher totals vs the earlier shift.

At the end of the day there is as much "art" to forecasting as there is science.

My wife is in the medical field, and for all of the skill, expertise and training of doctors, sometimes there is an unforeseen factor that makes things go sideways and there is a bad outcome.  It is a reminder that doctors *practice* medicine. 

It could also be said that meteorologists *practice* weather forecasting.

 

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The NWS is already hinting at possible surprises like possible banding tomorrow into tomorrow evening.  I would say north of Seattle would be most likely earlier in the day and then south of Seattle in the evening.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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850s bottom out at -10 behind the snow event now.  Colder and colder on each run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Looks like they just had to pluck someone off Mt. Baker, Navy rescue chopper just flew over my house coming from that direction (I am directly on the path between Mt. Baker and the hospital as the crow....or rescue chopper...flies)

 

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36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just can't get over how cold this run is.  Cold offshore flow (sometimes northerly) the entire time.

Jim next week has massive potential, especially for areas with outflow from the passes and for the hood canal area. Just from what I see on the 18z some places will get a massive wet snow dump.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Has the EPS been trending colder also for next week?

About the same, but it has been having some very cold members on every run.  A cold outcome is possible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jim next week has massive potential, especially for areas with outflow from the passes and for the hood canal area. Just from what I see on the 18z some places will get a massive wet snow dump.

Some drier snow too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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18z Euro continuing to show rain tomorrow afternoon (this is for 1PM) for as far north as southern Snohomish County. In fact, it looks like snow levels are even a hair higher than 12z.

Still don't think this will be the case but I could very well be wrong...

image.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like that rain for Puget Sound is short lived. By 4PM it's back to snow for Tacoma northward (first frame) and it's still showing precip hanging around the S Sound/EPSL into early Friday morning (second frame for 1AM Friday).

 

18z euro tacoma.png

18z euro 1am.png

Definitely will be threading the needle here in The Swamp.

Excited to see what happens.

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