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PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Beyond that they’re a lot different unfortunately. Other thing is the gfs seems to be on its own with the colder snowier solution while the euro is basically back to normal weather…which usually isn’t a good thing. 

I'm not expecting much after Sunday night / Monday morning actually.  Cold could linger a little bit for a couple more days than that I suppose.  We might have a shot at a drier / chilly inversion situation as we get a bit deeper into the month.

This has been a great run for us, and I think more will come later.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

So it might or might not snow on Monday. Felton says no, JAYA says I don’t know, and everyone on the forum says yes. Majority wins!! 

That one’s a little tricky it’s all dependent on how heavy the precip is since the surface temps will be pretty mild. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm not expecting much after Sunday night / Monday morning actually.  Cold could linger a little bit for a couple more days than that I suppose.  We might have a shot at a drier / chilly inversion situation as we get a bit deeper into the month.

This has been a great run for us, and I think more will come later.

I definitely think more fun things are going to happen this winter for sure. Not sure if that’s next week or later in January into February though. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So it might or might not snow on Monday. Felton says no, JAYA says I don’t know, and everyone on the forum says yes. Majority wins!! 

Felton didn't say no actually.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I definitely think more fun things are going to happen this winter for sure. Not sure if that’s next week or later in January into February though. 

I agree. The BCC long-range model has done well for our area this winter, and shows cold in the PNW January- March. image.thumb.png.9e33446920ca70c769994d22b0580f04.png

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not expecting much after Sunday night / Monday morning actually.  Cold could linger a little bit for a couple more days than that I suppose.  We might have a shot at a drier / chilly inversion situation as we get a bit deeper into the month.

This has been a great run for us, and I think more will come later.

The big picture is that there is zero sign of southwesterlies showing back up anytime soon. Pattern remains very blocky. The jet is dead. 

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I don't doubt that the upcoming inversion pattern will produce the chilliest temps of the season so far for places like Salem and Eugene. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nothing crazy, but a clear retrogression signal on the long range GEFS. Bet we are a few days away from some wild clown range GFS runs. 

The CFS, ECMWF weeklies, GEFS extended all show the same progression.  The regular GEFS is just seeing the beginning of it.  It would be amazing to get hit in the second half of January.  That period is way beyond due to deliver.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The big picture is that there is zero sign of southwesterlies showing back up anytime soon. Pattern remains very blocky. The jet is dead. 

Good point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m gonna miss our first snowfall of the winter, stuck down in Florida. I despise Tim weather.

Bummer.  It would have killed me to miss this past week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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5 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

I agree. The BCC long-range model has done well for our area this winter, and shows cold in the PNW January- March. image.thumb.png.9e33446920ca70c769994d22b0580f04.png

Very strong signal there.  Haven't heard of that model.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Bummer.  It would have killed me to miss this past week.

Definitely sucked for me but I’m over it now. Have had a good time down here regardless and I think there’s a good chance this won’t be the only event this winter. Makes it easier when I was home for February 2021 too. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What is the BCC? 

It's a Chinese weather model, but it's based on a cutting edge model from NCAR according to what I just found out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Palm trees are ugly. Give me ponderosa pines and sagebrush any day.

They are nice in their native environment.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Definitely sucked for me but I’m over it now. Have had a good time down here regardless and I think there’s a good chance this won’t be the only event this winter. Makes it easier when I was home for February 2021 too. 

I guess you just have to get over it.  No other choice.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't doubt that the upcoming inversion pattern will produce the chilliest temps of the season so far for places like Salem and Eugene. 

I'm low key excited for it. I hope there isn't much melt, we get some wet snow and ice, and then bam, ice fog and 28º highs. Might be the one time that living in a valley near sea level pays off.

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Palm trees draped in Christmas lights is an abomination.

Dude... there are different climates in the world.     Should people in tropical places not celebrate Christmas?    I thought the decorations and lights in Hawaii were really cool.   Mele Kalikimaka!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Troutdale down to 32 with East winds gusting over 20mph and dp down to 24

Holding at 34 DP 31 here and cloudy no east wind yet.

I was just going to make this post! Great to see some cold outflow starting up. Up to 37 here away from the start of the easterlies. All snow gone once again, but looking forward to a cold night.

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The beauty on the trip is flat out stunning. We dropped to -12 again and was still -11 at 10am under blazing sunshine.  Tonight will probably be 25 below.

20211231_075712.jpg

20211231_091008.jpg

20211231_093211.jpg

20211231_092256.jpg

Pretty area for sure.  The blue sky just makes it with that snowscape.  Thankfully we've had some of that over here with this event.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Holding on to 30 but some definite dripping going on. Blinding sunshine out there right now.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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000
FXUS66 KOTX 311808
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1008 AM PST Fri Dec 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow decreases this morning, while cold temperatures continues
through the weekend. In fact, the coldest temperatures should be
tonight with most areas seeing below zero lows. The next system
looks to arrive late Sunday into Monday with snow likely.
Temperatures return closer to normal by early next week along with
more rounds of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: Drier air is moving into the region from the north
winds gusty northeast winds at Sandpoint and Omak and winds
channel down into these areas. Satellite shows clearing over much
of Eastern WA except for a band of mid clouds around Wenatchee and
Moses Lake, and a patches of stratus over SE Washington into the
Central Panhandle Mountains. Have allowed the Winter Weather
Advisories to expire for the Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle
Mountains although flurries will remain possible into the
afternoon where stratus lingers. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in
effect through noon for the Okanogan Valley and Waterville
Plateau.

With the clearing skies over most of the region temperatures will
likely plummet this evening with diminishing winds as a short wave
ridge moves over the area along with fresh snow cover on the
ground. Will be taking a hard look at low temperatures for the
afternoon package. JW
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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The CFS, ECMWF weeklies, GEFS extended all show the same progression.  The regular GEFS is just seeing the beginning of it.  It would be amazing to get hit in the second half of January.  That period is way beyond due to deliver.

I'd say second half of December was even more due, considering January 2012 happened.

But yeah, other than that there's been virtually nothing major or widespread in the second half of January since 1996. The closest was January 2002.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Yep. My comment was a bit tongue in cheek. In all honesty, most of the full timers moving here know what they are getting into and are indeed big snow fans while enjoying all the winter sports that this area has to offer.

Or they watched the TV show Yellowstone and "fell in love with the scenery". 😂

My wife has been "ok" with the idea of moving to Western Montana, I guess with Bozeman being about as far east as she'd be ok with. I've got a handful of coworkers that moved out there and love it and the fiber situation seems to good too. Kalispell-Whitefish is my top choice for anywhere in interior NW, but fiber doesn't look great.

The cold reality is that I need to convince my wife that Anchorage, or a polygon bounded by Ottawa, Hartford CT, and Portland ME, are great places to live. I keep telling her that direct flights from Anchorage to Seattle are quick and cheap and that its a Pacific Northwest kind of city, but with better colors.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I'd say second half of December was even more due, considering January 2012 happened.

But yeah, other than that there's been virtually nothing major or widespread in the second half of January since 1996. The closest was January 2002.

The "impact potential" of a mid to late Jan event is bit higher than what we just went through. Solar insolation is still pretty low, the pool of cold air is still there, and the upper atmosphere hasn't started any serious seasonal transition. It might be the the chemicals that the USAF sprayed overhead, but I have a deep gut feeling that MLK to Valentines Day could be something to remember.

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2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Drought report, some improvement region wide

DGT_Dec31.pdf 2.15 MB · 3 downloads

Yeah looking much better in western Oregon. Pattern looks decently active going into January too so it should continue to get better. Still lots of work to do on the eastern slopes of the Oregon cascades. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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9 minutes ago, iFred said:

My wife has been "ok" with the idea of moving to Western Montana, I guess with Bozeman being about as far east as she'd be ok with. I've got a handful of coworkers that moved out there and love it and the fiber situation seems to good too. Kalispell-Whitefish is my top choice for anywhere in interior NW, but fiber doesn't look great.

The cold reality is that I need to convince my wife that Anchorage, or a polygon bounded by Ottawa, Hartford CT, and Portland ME, are great places to live. I keep telling her that direct flights from Anchorage to Seattle are quick and cheap and that its a Pacific Northwest kind of city, but with better colors.

How does she feel about snow?

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7 minutes ago, iFred said:

The "impact potential" of a mid to late Jan event is bit higher than what we just went through. Solar insolation is still pretty low, the pool of cold air is still there, and the upper atmosphere hasn't started any serious seasonal transition. It might be the the chemicals that the USAF sprayed overhead, but I have a deep gut feeling that MLK to Valentines Day could be something to remember.

It’s not coming like this was coming.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I want to dig into this later, but I had a good conversation with a friend about climate change and some of the patterns we are seeing now. Rough idea was weaker lows over the pole are easier to get pulled down by the jet stream, then they gain a bit of energy, feed the jet over the Pacific that pumps up a ridge which then enters a feedback loop of creating conditions to continue that ridge. Then as long as the jet remains week on the leeward side of the block, and anything marginally blocks over the Eastern Seaboard, we end up right in the path of any air that cooled off in Alaska.

Again, I want to dig into this later, but it seems to be a catch-22 where our summers will be hotter and drier, but our winters will be and drier and a bit more continental. The flip side is the overall background still gets warmer, snowpack means less and less as it melts off quicker, and even if we end up with ARs, if they're in the first half of the season, then any snowpack gains will be hard to come by.

There is also the solar aspect of this, but with activity picking up but the blocky patterns remaining, I am less inclined to think that our recent minimum was enough to kick off any significant cooling. Might be a different story if we hit a real flatline in the next cycle. 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

It’s not coming like this was coming.

Think that if we see anything again this winter it’ll be the more traditional type of event. Highs in the low to mid 30s with marginal snow chances and not as prolonged as this. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How does she feel about snow?

She thinks it is pretty, but my obsession over is not. When we moved back to Seattle from Philly, I wanted to buy a house with an elevation of at least 500ft and not windshadowed, so the foothills or out by Mossman. She wanted to live no more than ten minutes away from her mom and in the town she grew up in. We compromised by moving to Everett and living seven minutes away from her Mom.

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Headed back to Springfield. 41F and mostly cloudy in Brownsville.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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