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PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


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1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

big yikes on the 00z euro those of us in pdx better be praying to baby santa that it is out to lunch with precip or we're looking at a dusting of a snow event here tomorrow/mon.

NWS already set that in motion.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, OysterPrintout said:

Been a bit of an ebb and flow between 00z and 12z for precip totals so without any evidence to prove it I'm going with a national blend of euros map and saying it's all gonna be jussssst fine. 

I think 1-2 inches in the lowlands is a decent bet. There might be some spotty accumulations preceding that, but I suspect most of that will be with whatever enhancement we pick up Sunday afternoon and evening with the wind shift. Best case is kind of a repeat of February 2018. Same day/time frame!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The ECMWF is slowly trending colder for the early part of week two.  Still looking like a long cold period is on the table.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I can't wait to go back! 🥰

It is nice, but we will have our snow soon enough.  Nothing can make me leave when there is actually snow here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Anybody else watching the NOAA mPING (Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground) app right now? Obviously we have our own real time reporting, but some really lovely bands of snow are being reported at the north and sound king county lines, as well as freezing precipitation are happening on the city high points. Can’t wait to finally be able to send in a snow report of my own!

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58 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro snow maps are a joke. It’s clear as day, for whatever reason, that they are shifted about 15 (give or take) to the west. Those totals are for the coast range, just as the vaginal dead zone is in reality more over the metro area as opposed to east slopes.

You may want to hop on the PDX NWS conference call and let them know about this. 

Tonight's AFD:

With this system in general will say that there is still a lot
of variability in accumulation outputs from models. The GFS
tends to be the most robust at this point with accumulations
inland, while the ECMWF produces more along the coast.
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Down to 35 here now.  Just a heavy shower away from going to snow.  The period I have always had my eye on though is late tomorrow through early Sunday.  That has great potential.  There is eventually going to be a wind shift and that should get things going bigly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think 1-2 inches in the lowlands is a decent bet. There might be some spotty accumulations preceding that, but I suspect most of that will be with whatever enhancement we pick up Sunday afternoon and evening with the wind shift. Best case is kind of a repeat of February 2018. Same day/time frame!

Out of curiosity-- probably a bit too early to really theorize-- what are your thoughts on that potential Tuesday system? Seems models are split as to how much moisture it's packing.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

Anybody else watching the NOAA mPING (Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground) app right now? Obviously we have our own real time reporting, but some really lovely bands of snow are being reported at the north and sound king county lines, as well as freezing precipitation are happening on the city high points. Can’t wait to finally be able to send in a snow report of my own!

Do you have alink?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

You may want to hop on the PDX NWS conference call and let them know about this. 

Tonight's AFD:

With this system in general will say that there is still a lot
of variability in accumulation outputs from models. The GFS
tends to be the most robust at this point with accumulations
inland, while the ECMWF produces more along the coast.

I read that. Pretty funny.

And it’s reflected in their warning as well as they talk about up to a foot above 100 feet.

Don’t get me wrong, I think the north coast could do pretty well with this, but that’s just silly.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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