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PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


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49 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

I’m curious what models are in the NBM that the NWS uses? Just weird that every individual model we’re looking at shows more snow than the “blend” they’re using. Maybe they’re including some really obscure models here?

According to a Blog by NWS Spokane NBM is a blend of over 100 models, maybe some stuff the general public does not see.

 

it's in this blog from yesterday

 

http://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/snow-then-bitterly-cold.html

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6 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

I am a little confused, and concerned, that the TV mets and NWS are still only saying "half an inch or less". I am concerned for those who plan on traveling over the weekend, that may not be prepared, if this thing really goes nuts. What year was it, where we got hammered and people got stuck on the freeways after the Seahawks game? I don't remember details, so I dunno what was actually forecast for that event, but I feel like people weren't prepared for that....Not that I am EXPECTING this to be like that, but as we all know, it *can* happen. I dunno, I just have this feeling that many people are going to be ill-prepared, if some of these models verify. It's honestly probably wishful thinking on my part....to have tons and tons of snow. lol 

I'm puzzled myself.  The models are pretty wet, and temps will not be a question by tomorrow afternoon.  From experience I can say the models are wetter/snowier right now than usual going into this type of thing and they are usually too dry.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

According to a Blog by NWS Spokane NBM is a blend of over 100 models, maybe some stuff the general public does not see.

 

it's in this blog from yesterday

 

http://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/snow-then-bitterly-cold.html

100?  They must include the Pakistan 17z to come up with that many.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I really think Cliff, the NWS, and TV mets are so focused on the extreme cold they are sleeping on the impacts this snow this weekend will likely have.

The NWS is forecasting less than 1” total for Everett while also predicting 4 straight highs in the 20’s including a high of 22 on Monday. I’d raise the temps up a bit if I were them but increase the snow forecast as well.

I think they’re seeing what the Euro and now the GFS are picking up, moderation and progression.

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7 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

WSW posted for Admiralty Inlet Area, Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, Western Skagit County, Western Strait of Juan De Fuca, Western Whatcom County. Effective 10:00 pm tonight through 10:00 am Sunday.

4C91CDEE-331C-487B-AA12-085F89D5263A.png

I’m adding myself to the WSW since I’m less than a mile from the Skagit border, and I always get more snow than Camano Island and they are under the watch so BAM! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

According to a Blog by NWS Spokane NBM is a blend of over 100 models, maybe some stuff the general public does not see.

 

it's in this blog from yesterday

 

http://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/snow-then-bitterly-cold.html

It leans heavily on the UJEAS.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like 3 or 4 inches for Tacoma. That will work. 

They scored in a few of the good ones. Won't surprise me one bit. 

Tacoma had more accumulation than I did in 2019.

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 6.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 6.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 3 (3.0" Jan 16th)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I really think Cliff, the NWS, and TV mets are so focused on the extreme cold they are sleeping on the impacts this snow this weekend will likely have.

The NWS is forecasting less than 1” total for Everett while also predicting 4 straight highs in the 20’s including a high of 22 on Monday. I’d raise the temps up a bit if I were them but increase the snow forecast as well.

Never underestimate how cold Fraser River blasts end up in Seattle.  The models usually aren't too cold with those.  Back door blasts is where they can really go overboard on the cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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21 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Down to 37 and actually getting a few wet snowflakes mixing in under this heavy shower. Surprised to see that already down here, but I’ll take it. I’m not going to complain about any chances for snowflakes around Christmas. 

Suppose I should look outside!  Currently at my daughters here in Tigard 


38* (FedWay)

 

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Went down to my in laws in Eugene. We had 3” on the ground as of 7:45 am and given snowfall rates and the radar we may have doubled that by now. Sticking snow was down to 800-1000’. Models look good for sticking snow in the valley Sunday and Tuesday. The end of week slider could trend better too. Gfs had a great trough around the 3-5 too. Then maybe we reset the pattern. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

According to a Blog by NWS Spokane NBM is a blend of over 100 models, maybe some stuff the general public does not see.

 

it's in this blog from yesterday

 

http://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/snow-then-bitterly-cold.html

I bet they include all ensemble members from eps and GEFS or CMC to get to that number. 

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I think a part of the problem is they are so focused on the arctic front and when that will move through. Most models don't have that happening until Sunday, so they are writing off most snow south of Skagit until then (although even their Sunday forecast is conspicuously low...). In reality, at least per almost all models, it should be cold enough to snow prior to the boundary passage due to cold air wrapping around the low and the convective/banding nature of the event. 

I'll take a look at all the specifics with the 12z Euro (925s, 850s, DPs, etc.) and compare to 12z GFS and mesoscale models but I'm thinking the above is where they are getting a bit hung up. Normally we do have to wait for the boundary to drop to be cold enough to snow and normally that happens slower than modeled but in this scenario, I think we should be plenty cold before the actual front/north winds sag south on Sunday.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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I’m going to close my eyes and pretend like it’s 11/25/06. Models took a dive on 11/24 and things were looking like a non event until we got an inch or two from the arctic boundary that was supposed to roll through on 11/27. Well it started snowing the morning of 11/26 and really didn’t stop for well over 24hrs until after the arctic front on 11/27. Nearly 20” of snow and every weak alder tree in the area was wiped out by the heavy snow. Could happen again, going to be fun watching this thing progress! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The NBM could explain the NWS lack of snowfall alright.  It is very stingy with snowfall tomorrow night compared to the GFS and ECMWF.  I think Tim has a way better handle on this than that model.  It's not seeing the likely c-zones and marine air / Arctic air interactions that are going to happen.  I think 3 to 5 inches is a good call for the Puget Sound lowlands.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Strangely enough NBM is pretty good for snowfall down here compared to the major models. Far less shadowing. Would be a win for basically everyone.

In the meantime we really have to hope that the euro (and the nam but it's the nam this far out) are out to lunch with precip amounts for both tomorrow night/mon and the tuesday system. Not a great spot to be in. We'll see what happens on this run.

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26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm puzzled myself.  The models are pretty wet, and temps will not be a question by tomorrow afternoon.  From experience I can say the models are wetter/snowier right now than usual going into this type of thing and they are usually too dry.

I agree. Models underestimate moisture in these boundary setups most of the time and usually look much drier than they do right now even in setups we end up scoring in. It’s happened quite a few times that they showed scattered 1-2” amounts and I ended up with 3-5” here in Everett. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if that happens again.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

indeed and also why they never went 'all in'

They absolutely did go all in on temperatures, just have been really underplaying the snow threat IMO.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think a part of the problem is they are so focused on the arctic front and when that will move through. Most models don't have that happening until Sunday, so they are writing off most snow south of Skagit until then (although even their Sunday forecast is conspicuously low...). In reality, at least per almost all models, it should be cold enough to snow prior to the boundary passage due to cold air wrapping around the low and the convective/banding nature of the event. 

I'll take a look at all the specifics with the 12z Euro (925s, 850s, DPs, etc.) and compare to 12z GFS and mesoscale models but I'm thinking the above is where they are getting a bit hung up. Normally we do have to wait for the boundary to drop to be cold enough to snow and normally that happens slower than modeled but in this scenario, I think we should be plenty cold before the actual front/north winds sag south on Sunday.

Tonight is a real wild card for this area.  The GFS and ECMWF take 925s down to -2 or -3.  Cold enough for snow in most cases.  We also have extremely low heights right now which seems to make some of the requirements less than they would normally be.  The big problem seems to be they are going with a model that is suspiciously dry for tomorrow night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

They absolutely did go all in on temperatures, just have been really underplaying the snow threat IMO.

I guess I was making that statement based on local NWS office.  They were 'all in' on their blog but it never blended down to the actual point forecasts

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NWS and local Mets make their living in the winter by underestimating the models and leaning climo. In the end of the day, 9/10 times they are right for most of the population. I’ve also learned they are very sensitive on twitter with a busted forecast for snow. 
 

that being said I agree with many of you that this is not a normal situation. The fact we aren’t waiting for the inevitable delayed arctic front is a game changer. Would love nothing more to watch this blog out forecast the pros again 🤣 

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4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Have some Hope! 

Screen Shot 2021-12-24 at 9.53.35 AM.png

They have already had a lot of cold and snow up there.  Going to a be an epic winter for them.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The NBM could explain the NWS lack of snowfall alright.  It is very stingy with snowfall tomorrow night compared to the GFS and ECMWF.  I think Tim has a way better handle on this than that model.  It's not seeing the likely c-zones and marine air / Arctic air interactions that are going to happen.  I think 3 to 5 inches is a good call for the Puget Sound lowlands.

I think the NBM does much better with large synoptic patterns and systems. It never shows high enough resolution changes to pick up on small scale features like CZ’s and arctic fronts which will be key for snow this weekend.

just looked though and it doesn’t look too stingy to me through Monday morning.

 

 

 

D9FDB09F-403E-4D44-B165-A2CBEDCB6CCC.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I agree. Models underestimate moisture in these boundary setups most of the time and usually look much drier than they do right now even in setups we end up scoring in. It’s happened quite a few times that they showed scattered 1-2” amounts and I ended up with 3-5” here in Everett. Wouldn’t surprise me one but if that happens again.

Everett is a snow magnet, I never rule out anything there when there is moisture and cold air and the change of convergence. I took a bus from Seattle to Everett back in 2019 for some more serious powder.

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Enjoy this rare white Christmas Eve/Day. It's feeling tropical out here where I now live.

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ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 6.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 6.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 3 (3.0" Jan 16th)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I guess I was making that statement based on local NWS office.  They were 'all in' on their blog but it never blended down to the actual point forecasts

Most sites were matching temperatures in Missoula to Spokane. Missoula almost always runs colder than Spokane during Arctic outbreaks. I wasn't convinced.

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I will say I understand people being weenies right now. I’m the biggest weenie when our area gets hosed, I think most people know that. Easy to be magnanimous about details being watered down when you are still getting a lot of snow. I would have loved a top shelf arctic blast, but we may need to wait a few weeks for that.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Snow maps looking way less for my area it appears. Oh well. 

That is only through early tomorrow afternoon. It’s coming.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I think the NBM does much better with large synoptic patterns and systems. It never shows high enough resolution changes to pick up on small scale features like CZ’s and arctic fronts which will be key for snow this weekend.

just looked though and it doesn’t look too stingy to me through Monday morning.

 

 

 

D9FDB09F-403E-4D44-B165-A2CBEDCB6CCC.png

This makes even less sense.  If this is their new go-to, why aren't they forecasting similar to this solution?

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say I understand people being weenies right now. I’m the biggest weenie when our area gets hosed, I think most people know that. Easy to be magnanimous about details being watered down when you are still getting a lot of snow. I would have loved a top shelf arctic blast, but we may need to wait a few weeks for that.

I don't need much snow. I want vodka cold. It's just harder to get top level cold west of the Continental Divide these days. Spokane hasn't recorded a subzero high since 1990. December 29, 1990 was -1/-16.

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