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PNW December 2021 Obs - A December for Despair and Disappointment


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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Most of the general public don’t spend time on weather forums analyzing models as they come out. The NWS has a large area to cover and have to deal with terrain as part of their forecast which can be difficult to pin-point. I checked the NWS forecast for Bellingham in which you are under a Winter Storm Watch. 1 to 8 inches in the advisory and point forecast of 4.5in max seems reasonable to me.

How’s the new job treating you? Hope you’re enjoying the big city life💯❄️
 

@wxmet

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2 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Everyone here knows how hard it is to get snow around here.  It's even harder to predict how much and where the snow is going to fall, usually rendering the models general guides when the good stuff is near.  I recommend everyone kick back with a spiked egg nog, monitor the boards when you can, watch your streetlights, and enjoy your family and friends on as we approach the greatest of days!  You will get snow--which is almost a foregone certainty--and cheer any nuances in your backyard that adds to your snowfall totals.   In my area, I am predicting 4 to 5 inches before it's all said and done by Monday morning.  Some of it is based on my knowledge--the other is based on me not losing face with my wife of 36 years.  Merry Christmas all!!!  I

I think what many us are trying to convey is the NWS should know full well the dynamics involved here should equate to a snowy outcome as the Arctic boundary gets hung up over us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Most of the general public don’t spend time on weather forums analyzing models as they come out. The NWS has a large area to cover and have to deal with terrain as part of their forecast which can be difficult to pin-point. I checked the NWS forecast for Bellingham in which you are under a Winter Storm Watch. 1 to 8 inches in the advisory and point forecast of 4.5in max seems reasonable to me.

Most of the general public wouldn’t be able to find the NWS forecast discussion if their life depended on it. It should be written as if people who are genuinely interested in reading a detailed discussion are reading. Also, the WSW just came out after my first response to you. Good on them. But, a 1-8” forecast is silly. 1-8”? And highs 20-40 with winds 10-60mph possibly gusting to 80 maybe as high as 100. 

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15z NBM is much wetter than the 9z for tomorrow night / Sunday.  Very good to see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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The WRF might be overdoing (or underdoing?) the temps just a bit...This would be absolutely insane.

20211224_12z_WRFTemps.thumb.gif.725f0d0079d2f08172d87af469b9ebb9.gif

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The cold keeps getting more and more neutered. Back to rain by Thursday. Looks like a one day cold event in Portland on Monday. Above freezing both Tuesday and Wednesday.

There's very little chance PDX would go above freezing on Tuesday or Wednesday with the modeled setup....

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think what many us are trying to convey is the NWS should know full well the dynamics involved here should equate to a snowy outcome as the Arctic boundary gets hung up over us.

I totally understand and agree, but weather forecasting is more than looking and interpreting the models.  A lot of personal knowledge of the pros go into those forecasts, whcih include climatology, analogs, and just plain old human input.  Sometimes they get it exactly right, and sometime it busts.  That's partly what makes the model ride so fun.  We can complain about the official forecast while we wishcast our backyard.  I personally think you and some of the others do an outstanding job of interpreting the models, but let's be honest, there is some wishcasting that goes on around here.  I actually wish I could have more than a foot here, but in my heart, I know that's not going to happen at this point.  That said, keep up the great analysis here.  I enjoy reading all of it--even the weenies make me smile here because it's easy to poo poo another man's work.

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We could put together a conglomeration of weather fanatics from this forum to put together a far greater and more detailed forecast for the area than the Seattle NWS. Experience over Bachelors degree. I’m going to out forecast the NWS for this event for Whatcom County and I’m not even trying. 

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1 minute ago, Brennan said:

We could put together a conglomeration of weather fanatics from this forum to put together a far greater and more detailed forecast for the area than the Seattle NWS. Experience over Bachelors degree. I’m going to out forecast the NWS for this event for Whatcom County and I’m not even trying. 

Chill the f down.  You're claiming victory when the event hasn't even happened 

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Another ridiculous WRF map for this run. Teens here by 7 a.m. tomorrow??? Something's wrong.

 

20211224_12z_WRFTemps_27hr.gif

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 17" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1")

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Still a lot of cold weather and snow on this ECMWF run.  One thing to watch is the ECMWF turns surface gradients onshore as we get close to New Years.   The GFS doesn't and stays colder.  Far enough out that we have now way of knowing for sure.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There's very little chance PDX would go above freezing on Tuesday or Wednesday with the modeled setup....

This is better than some people are making it out to be.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Another ridiculous WRF map for this run. Teens here by 7 a.m. tomorrow??? Something's wrong.

 

20211224_12z_WRFTemps_27hr.gif

You never know, but probably.  It does seem fast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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BTW...first time I've been sick on Christmas since 1996.  Analog?

I don't think it's COVID BTW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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The early stages of the NBM are much improved for the Central Puget Sound region vs earlier runs for precip.  Maybe this will get the NWS to get more excited.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The early stages of the NBM are much improved for the Central Puget Sound region vs earlier runs for precip.  Maybe this will get the NWS to get more excited.

Looks like a pretty realistic progression to me. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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Being conservative around here is usually correct, just seems like a little more heads up on the *potential* would be helpful given holiday travels. People won't think twice about an inch or two of forecasted snow, and I5 will likely be a disaster, especially given lower DOT employment 

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Kind of telling that the long range talk has disappeared.

It's partially because people are so focused on snow over the next two days.  The long range still has potential.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like a pretty realistic progression to me. 

Yeah...looks like a good scenario for widespread accumulations.  Another wildcard that hasn't been mentioned much is possible convection with this.  Some localized areas could get a good dump in a short time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Being conservative around here is usually correct, just seems like a little more heads up on the *potential* would be helpful given holiday travels. People won't think twice about an inch or two of forecasted snow, and I5 will likely be a disaster, especially given lower DOT employment 

Even a small amount with the very cold temps will be a huge mess on the roads.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Tons of potential in the 6 to 12 day period it would appear.  For right now though all eyes are on the next few days!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Tons of potential in the 6 to 12 day period it would appear.  For right now though all eyes are on the next few days!

Yep despite a warm up around NYE long range potential is still there. Not to mention a pretty decent next 72 hours coming up. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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For those wondering to look for...just compare the current mesonet map observations to what the models are showing for the Fraser River outflow progress and coldness.  I like to start up around Prince George and work down from there.  Last I looked Prince George was -4 and Lytton 18.  Good start.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Yep despite a warm up around NYE long range potential is still there. Not to mention a pretty decent next 72 hours coming up. 

Actually the cold has a good lock on us through Wednesday at least.  I think people will feel a lot different when we have snow cover and frigid temps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually the cold has a good lock on us through Wednesday at least.  I think people will feel a lot different when we have snow cover and frigid temps.

Definitely no complaints from me at all the next couple weeks look pretty interesting. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-6.97”

Snowfall 11”

Sub 40 highs-10

Sub 32 highs-4

Sub 32 lows-9

Coldest High-24

Coldest Low-16

 

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