bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Models have been showing this for a few days now and all are in agreement of a storm impacting the mid section of the country. The GFS has shifted further north, the Euro has weakened a bit, but both are showing plenty to keep an eye on. The Canadian is similar to the Euro on placement but as strong as the GFS. 18z GFS 12z Canadian 12z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 So, we have a thread and models all go north lol. My early call for the SLP running over Chicago solidly in play. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Oh well, what could happen? James and I in the jackpot zone on the Canadian. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Cmon GFS just shift a smidge SE please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 hopefully we can get the euro on board with broad 5"+ area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 UK is nw Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Seems like the trend has been north this year. Heard flowers mention something about it in his post today. Hopefully we can cash in on some here in LNK 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Big changes in the euro from 12z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Big changes in the euro from 12z Ugh... a strong piece of energy in southern Canada really suppresses everything. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 I'm not buying into the north camp just yet bc every global ensemble mean SLP has it riding thru the S MW/OHV. I think the GFS is over amped in a positively inverted trough scenarios its hard to believe it. If the set up was a little different up stream, I'd say yes, but I think this will be a strung out wave and then maybe it tries to go somewhat neg tilt later in the game. That's my 2 cents at this range. Meantime, 0z GEFS... Slowly showing some big hits in the mix... Classic TX PanHandle track up thru the OHV... The bias of the Euro holding energy back in the SW is still showing up but the EPS is slowly ejecting the energy out quicker each passing run. 00z EPS is not overly enthusiastic with this system compared to the GEFS/GEPS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 6z EC not overly strong but would bring the first accumulating snow to KC and MBY. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 The GFS SLP shifted considerably south, but oddly enough the snow and precip shield didn't shift. Typically a SLP through central to northeast MO would put eastern Iowa in a good path for snow, but it's not showing up that way on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Let's go ICON!! Has KC in the 6-8 inch range.....I know.....stupid model. But, I'm going with it because I need to feel good about a chance of snow in KC. We haven't even come close to a chance of snow since Nov. 1st. I'm locking in the ICON model and going with it GFS and GEM....not so much for KC. 5 days to go At least KC has a storm to track. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Canadian a slight jog north and a little weaker and more progressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 12z UKIE came back a lot farther south this run... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 I have a feeling the Euro and its more progressive positively tilted trough solution will win out. I'm just hoping it will be further north than where it's running now. I feel fairly good 5 days out that the GFS is to my north and the Euro to my south with the Canadian and now UK right in the middle. Hopefully they all meet up in the middle. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 The GFS has the wave kicked out ahead of the main storm, I hope that doesn't happen. It would benefit KC if the wave and storm phase out west and ejects as one big storm, if that happens alot of us on here will be happy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 GFS is so bad right now. It had mostly rain here last night. The other models correctly predicted more snow. And intensity and the track. Ensembles are the only way to go with that model. It’s broken. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 12z GEFS...subtract the 1st map from the 2nd... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS...subtract the 1st map from the 2nd... CMC looks about the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: CMC looks about the same. What has been the trend on the Canadian? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tom said: What has been the trend on the Canadian? Holding steady for the most part, slight shift south and a trend for higher amounts west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 18 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Gary says the LRC favors a further south solution. But he admits that he's gun shy about predicting anything significant for KC because we've had 0.19 inches of precipitation in the last 43 days. I think he has to be sweating the whole LRC thing this year. We haven't had anything yet that truly resembles October. Here's is quote and I'm still shocked that so many storms have tracked by with no moisture to work with for us. @Tomdo you agree with him? I keep looking for a fully phased storm, not sure if we're going to get it. The LRC strongly suggests the farther south solution, but the 43-day dry spell has me a bit "freaked out" over anything that looks like rain or snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Gary says the LRC favors a further south solution. But he admits that he's gun shy about predicting anything significant for KC because we've had 0.19 inches of precipitation in the last 43 days. I think he has to be sweating the whole LRC thing this year. We haven't had anything yet that truly resembles October. Hopefully the cold air is stronger on the models that will push the system south to finally give kc its first snow of the season! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 The Euro is back nw and a bit stronger again, so it's fairly similar to other models. Models agree on the general scenario. Energy digs down from the pacNW, which grabs the Baha energy and slingshots it across the midwest very quickly. The rest of the energy in the west is then wasted as the northern stream rushes in behind the initial energy and suppresses everything. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Posted this in wrong thread earlier. 12z Euro with ice for KC 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 53 minutes ago, Clinton said: Here's is quote and I'm still shocked that so many storms have tracked by with no moisture to work with for us. @Tomdo you agree with him? I keep looking for a fully phased storm, not sure if we're going to get it. The LRC strongly suggests the farther south solution, but the 43-day dry spell has me a bit "freaked out" over anything that looks like rain or snow. It’s hard for me to see this storm really phasing into a stronger storm like the GFS keeps showing. We are at that 5-day window where things can change a lot. The energy needs to get samples better by say, Wed/Thu…if by then the models begin to show some phasing, then I’ll be more optimistic. Otherwise, I see this as a strung out + tilted trough. Still though, this storm could end up laying down a significant snowstorm over the Sub. Nice changes on the Euro over here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 EPS mean showing many solutions still on the table. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 Euro a nice hit for most of Iowa. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 ^^ Love for that to verify but the heaviest snow falls with a temp around 4F Saturday PM and falling. 20:1 ratios. Not sure I by it ** Back in the saddle after having my world rocked by Rona. *** Nasty stuff. Ivermectin works. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 EPS Control 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 46 minutes ago, bud2380 said: EPS Control Can you extend this out by chance so we can see it for us in Nebraska? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 DMX actually more concerned than I would've gathered at this juncture- This western trof advance eastward later Friday into Saturday. The surface wave in Colorado is forecast to eject into the central United States on Saturday with moisture streaming northward from the Gulf. The deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are beginning to come closer in their respective solutions although the GFS remains farther north. The ensemble guidance would also suggest some decent snow associated with a deformation axis across Iowa as well on Saturday and will begin to mention the potential for significant snowfalls this upcoming holiday weekend. Temperatures are also expected to remain quite cold through the weekend with the southern edge of the arctic air dipping into the state. Any potential snow cover would only help the cold air migrate farther into Iowa. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: DMX actually more concerned than I would've gathered at this juncture- This western trof advance eastward later Friday into Saturday. The surface wave in Colorado is forecast to eject into the central United States on Saturday with moisture streaming northward from the Gulf. The deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are beginning to come closer in their respective solutions although the GFS remains farther north. The ensemble guidance would also suggest some decent snow associated with a deformation axis across Iowa as well on Saturday and will begin to mention the potential for significant snowfalls this upcoming holiday weekend. Temperatures are also expected to remain quite cold through the weekend with the southern edge of the arctic air dipping into the state. Any potential snow cover would only help the cold air migrate farther into Iowa. Won't be long before they start throwing out "Historic" lol. Seems to me they do it quite a bit. A certain group on a certain media app is forecasting DEADLY BLIZZARD ..lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: ^^ Love for that to verify but the heaviest snow falls with a temp around 4F Saturday PM and falling. 20:1 ratios. Not sure I by it ** Back in the saddle after having my world rocked by Rona. *** Nasty stuff. Ivermectin works. Been down the past 4 days myself with a fever. Doubt it's rona but still not pleasant. Glad you're doing better and back just in time for the action. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 All in all, the models want to keep the best snow track north of me and that is my expectation unless something clearly changes. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 GFS went weak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 27, 2021 Report Share Posted December 27, 2021 The China virus stinks but hopefully change of weather will help 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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