jaster220 Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 First mention by DTX. Glad to read there's still a fair number of ensemble members SOUTH of me A potential bigger system is being eyed for the Saturday- Sunday time frame as ensemble solutions are starting to converge on a low pressure system impacting the Ohio Valley. Still plenty of divergence noted within EPS cyclone centers, so it is way too soon to start talking about any winter weather impacts. WPC Day 4 paints Michigan (and a large portion of the Midwest and Northeast, owing to model divergence) with a 10-30 percent chance of observing .25" liquid equivalent of snow, while CPC clusters still have about half of its 100 ensemble model suite holding .25" liquid equivalent south of the state line. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 https://whatgoesonoutside.com/a-temperature-roller-coaster-and-new-years-snow/?fbclid=IwAR3gYM5uOyPP12TdH4Y3uEQLj7CF9gbtfjuhpXbh1_NB3uY3tkRhe-ZdHms Take a look at my blog post regarding this storm-- I have a specific focus on the KC area and the midwest being from KC and currently living and attending graduate school for meteorology in St. Louis. Feel free to subscribe! Would love to have other fellow weather enthusiasts join. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 At 250, there has been a noticeable trend towards weaker, more westerly flow potentially causing the low to track a bit further south, but also to be much weaker. The trough upstream over the western states has also trended to be much more positively tilted leading to the more westerly flower over the central states. I want to see stronger, more coupled upper jet that could lead to stronger upper-level divergence, strengthening the surface low. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jarod said: Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though. Nothing is pointing towards that at the moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Not sure if the NAM is overdoing it, but latest ramps up the short wave just a bit and produced a swath of 3-5 inches in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 00Z GFS- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 00z GFS with a low end warning/high end advisory event for a good chunk of Iowa. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 0z GFS and ICON are both further south and weaker. Also more west to east orientated which I buy into. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 We have all that energy in the west, but then the whole thing gets tipped positive and goes to crap. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Part of me is really beginning to question if there will even be an organized wave of energy. In the latest run of the GEFS, you can see the various members are still having a difficult time with the wave as it dives down near Baja, California. Some have it cut off at this point while others don't. There has been a trend with this energy staying more near to the shore and not being as amplified at this specific point in its track. Low low confidence for this first wave. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 00z GDPS.... the system is losing steam on the models, but a 3-6" event would still be respectable, especially considering my total this season is 0.0". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 The 00z UK is super weak, only a few inches across the region. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 00z Euro is similar to other models... produces a nice burst of snow that moves through quickly, lays down a moderate band. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Euro Kuchera- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 hours ago, Jarod said: Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though. The models are suggesting it starts snowing up in the Foothills of CO late on the 30th into the NYE. What part of CO are you arriving into? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 6z GFS seems a little wetter and higher totals for KC 6z ICON goes bonkers and is further south. This map is at 10:1 and has snow still falling all the way back to SC Kansas at hr 120. @MIKEKCmay have hacked the model 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 6z EC shifts south also showing the main storm holding together and not taking the main energy across the deep south. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Icon for the win!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 I'm not greedy, I'll take a cold 3-6" of snow any day this winter. No more slop. Looks like we do have a nice HP slipping down to keep this storm from going too far north. While it might not be a big dog, looks like a few members here will get some accumulating snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 GFS shifted way south. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Seems like an overall southerly shift today. Probably because that high pressure is moving south faster than previously forecast. The cold gets to KC earlier. Today's GFS 6z run has KC at 20 degrees this coming Saturday morning. Yesterday's GFS 6z run had us at 54 degrees at the same time. Gotta take it all with a huge grain of salt, though. GFS is no bueno. 12z GFS blast KC! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Love it gfs is on crack again!! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Only a 250 mile shift south. I think it'll be a couple more days before models sort this out. The last big snowstorm that hit southern Minnesota shifted south as well before coming back north on models. A lot to be ironed out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Of course if this went south of me that would be hilarious in an annoying way. Long way to go still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: If this were to happen--HUGE "IF"--KC would be back on track to at least have an overall normal total snowfall this winter. KC was in between areas of AN snowfall to the north and south of it last year, with about 80% of normal here. We're due. I'll buy in on it as well. The models have been trending to a more organized and phased storm and as you pointed out much colder. Also a more bowling ball type storm lines up well with the LRC. Long ways to go and in KC nothing is ever set in stone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: I'll buy in on it as well. The models have been trending to a more organized and phased storm and as you pointed out much colder. Also a more bowling ball type storm lines up well with the LRC. Long ways to go and in KC nothing is ever set in stone. As what Gary stated, this storm should take a southern route and bless us! We just need it to stay strong and phased together like last cycle and everyone in here in the region will be smiling for days! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 GDPS (Canadian) 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: As what Gary stated, this storm should take a southern route and bless us! We just need it to stay strong and phased together like last cycle and everyone in here in the region will be smiling for days! Certainly has big potential, we need to break the ice and get Winter started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 hours ago, Tom said: The models are suggesting it starts snowing up in the Foothills of CO late on the 30th into the NYE. What part of CO are you arriving into? I'm heading to Loveland, CO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 12z UK Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 The GFS would also wipe away any snow on the ground with more record highs the following week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 12z GEFS went south also, there are a few big hitters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Until I see 3 gfs runs in a row a like I’m not holding my breath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Bucking the se trend, the 12z Euro is nw and big for Iowa. It looks a bit more phased and not just a piece of energy being sheared out. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 10:1 Euro.... it should be cold so the ratio would be better. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Whoooo Euro!! Subtract 3-4" in Iowa City and CR from previous events. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Wider view 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just for fun check out this Topeka 68 degree temperature disparity at 240 hrs on the 12z models: GFS: 62F; CMC: -6F. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 12z EPS drifting south but still north of the GEFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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