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New Year's Day Storm


bud2380

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First mention by DTX. Glad to read there's still a fair number of ensemble members SOUTH of me

A potential bigger system is being eyed for the Saturday-
Sunday time frame as ensemble solutions are starting to converge on
a low pressure system impacting the Ohio Valley. Still plenty of
divergence noted within EPS cyclone centers, so it is way too soon to
start talking about any winter weather impacts. WPC Day 4 paints
Michigan (and a large portion of the Midwest and Northeast, owing to
model divergence) with a 10-30 percent chance of observing .25"
liquid equivalent of snow, while CPC clusters still have about half
of its 100 ensemble model suite holding .25" liquid equivalent south
of the state line.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Take a look at my blog post regarding this storm-- I have a specific focus on the KC area and the midwest being from KC and currently living and attending graduate school for meteorology in St. Louis. Feel free to subscribe! Would love to have other fellow weather enthusiasts join. 
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At 250, there has been a noticeable trend towards weaker, more westerly flow potentially causing the low to track a bit further south, but also to be much weaker. The trough upstream over the western states has also trended to be much more positively tilted leading to the more westerly flower over the central states. I want to see stronger, more coupled upper jet that could lead to stronger upper-level divergence, strengthening the surface low. 

Screen Shot 2021-12-27 at 8.13.11 PM.png

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Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though.

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2 minutes ago, Jarod said:

Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though.

Nothing is pointing towards that at the moment. 

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We have all that energy in the west, but then the whole thing gets tipped positive and goes to crap.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Part of me is really beginning to question if there will even be an organized wave of energy. In the latest run of the GEFS, you can see the various members are still having a difficult time with the wave as it dives down near Baja, California. Some have it cut off at this point while others don't. There has been a trend with this energy staying more near to the shore and not being as amplified at this specific point in its track. Low low confidence for this first wave. 

Screen Shot 2021-12-27 at 10.24.11 PM.png

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00z GDPS.... the system is losing steam on the models, but a 3-6" event would still be respectable, especially considering my total this season is 0.0".

image.thumb.png.fcb8070a3c8c74d135e61a725284549f.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro is similar to other models... produces a nice burst of snow that moves through quickly, lays down a moderate band.

image.thumb.png.2f8dc91e171e4430bd713c925ee7514f.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Jarod said:

Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though.

The models are suggesting it starts snowing up in the Foothills of CO late on the 30th into the NYE.  What part of CO are you arriving into?

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I'm not greedy, I'll take a cold 3-6" of snow any day this winter.   No more slop.  

 

Looks like we do have a nice HP slipping down to keep this storm from going too far north.   While it might not be a big dog, looks like a few members here will get some accumulating snow.  

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34 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Seems like an overall southerly shift today.  Probably because that high pressure is moving south faster than previously forecast.  The cold gets to KC earlier.  Today's GFS 6z run has KC at 20 degrees this coming Saturday morning.  Yesterday's GFS 6z run had us at 54 degrees at the same time.  Gotta take it all with a huge grain of salt, though.  GFS is no bueno.   

12z GFS blast KC!

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6 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

If this were to happen--HUGE "IF"--KC would be back on track to at least have an overall normal total snowfall this winter.  KC was in between areas of AN snowfall to the north and south of it last year, with about 80% of normal here.  We're due. 

gfs_asnowd_us_23.png

I'll buy in on it as well.  The models have been trending to a more organized and phased storm and as you pointed out much colder.  Also a more bowling ball type storm lines up well with the LRC.  Long ways to go and in KC nothing is ever set in stone.

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'll buy in on it as well.  The models have been trending to a more organized and phased storm and as you pointed out much colder.  Also a more bowling ball type storm lines up well with the LRC.  Long ways to go and in KC nothing is ever set in stone.

As what Gary stated, this storm should take a southern route and bless us! We just need it to stay strong and phased together like last cycle and everyone in here in the region will be smiling for days!

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2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

As what Gary stated, this storm should take a southern route and bless us! We just need it to stay strong and phased together like last cycle and everyone in here in the region will be smiling for days!

Certainly has big potential, we need to break the ice and get Winter started.

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Bucking the se trend, the 12z Euro is nw and big for Iowa. 😀  It looks a bit more phased and not just a piece of energy being sheared out.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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