bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Euro control very similar to the Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 The lull before more model runs. I sure hope the Euro ends up more right than wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The lull before more model runs. I sure hope the Euro ends up more right than wrong. Fun to look at, but tomorrow night/thursday morning is when we can really get an idea of what's to come. Even then there will be shifts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The lull before more model runs. I sure hope the Euro ends up more right than wrong. The biggest difference is how the models handle the energy along the west coast. The GFS is a little stronger and deeper and the Euro is a little weaker and more inland. That's why I think the GFS will end up being right, but no guarantees. We should have a good idea over the next 36hrs. It's fun to have a storm to track though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Pulling for the euro as well but I wouldn’t be upset if KC gets hit, you guys need it. This thing should come into focus within the next few rounds of runs. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Hello everyone... it's been a day with getting my wisdom teeth out this morning. Just before the surgery, I got a glimpse of 12z run of the GFS and not only that, but the ensembles responded to this trend as well. Let's see if this evenings runs continue this trend... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 DVN pretty generic, but suggesting a classic winter storm setup for the DVN CWA. Saturday through next Tuesday...Latest ensembles and blends seem to be coming together in suggesting a classic southwestern plains low will develop and "hook" it`s way up along and northwest of the OH RVR Valley. This path would place much of the CWA under the gun of heavy def zone snows on northwest flank of H85 mb low pressure center. POPs and some confidence increasing on a significant system for New Years Day, but still plenty of time for additional storm track deviation. Strong cold dump and temporary arctic fetch still on track to flow down the western GRT LKS and upper MS RVR Valley into Sunday behind whatever system can bully it`s way through the region on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 DMX with a slight lean to the Euro so far. Friday and Saturday: The cold air will push in Friday, setting the stage for single digit lows Friday night and highs Saturday from the single digits north to upper teens south. Then Saturday a well advertised wave is progged to lift out of the southwest US and take aim on the midwest. Models continue to differ considerably on the evolution of the upper trough and subsequent track of the surface low. Latest ECMWF runs continue to track the wave across Iowa which would yield higher snowfall amounts for our area. Meanwhile the GFS continues to track farther south, suggesting lower snowfall amounts and impacts for our area. Of the two models, the ECMWF has been a bit more consistent so would lean slihtly toward that solution at this point. Regardless of the eventual track, given the cold temperatures, any snow that does occur is likely to be very fluffy and with wind gusts in the 15-25 mph range should blow around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 18z GFS took a jog north, similar to the Euro, but more than just a jog north, it looks strong and a much wider snow shield vs. 12z so more people get in on the action. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 The DVN CWA gets blasted on this run. Subtract 6" from CR and 1-3" in most other places north of I80 from previous storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Crap, I'm in the bullseye 4 days out. That's not good. I won't look at another map until Thursday (obvious lies)... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 I didn’t realize how bad KC has done the past few years Im rooting for you guys! Usually when KC gets storms we get them too in Chicago. I haven’t been watching much this year, it’s been soooo boring. This is exciting to even have something to watch finally! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 39 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Crap, I'm in the bullseye 4 days out. That's not good. I won't look at another map until Thursday (obvious lies)... Yep...the trend has been good for me today, but it's too early to get too excited. I'll patiently wait to see future model trends...and sacrifice a chicken in the backyard just to be safe. 1 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 Pivotal needs to add a 36-hr and 48-hr snowfall accumulation option. They have 24-hr and total as options, but nothing in between. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 50 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Yep...the trend has been good for me today, but it's too early to get too excited. I'll patiently wait to see future model trends...and sacrifice a chicken in the backyard just to be safe. Can we fry that chicken and eat it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 18z GEFS expanded the snowfield north but kept the southern edge in place. Spread the wealth! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: Not sure why this has part of the KC metro in the ice/frozen stuff. The entire column stays below freezing. Then again, I don't have a meteorology degree. Our office seems to think the bulk of the precip will be snow, so I'm not sure what the GFS is doing there. They seem to warm to the idea of accumulating snowfall also. * Potential for first winter event across the central US on New Years Day. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system. Thereafter, looking at a decent warming trend into Friday ahead of an active weather picture for the beginning of 2022. Hudson Bay low is expected to drive cold air south into the Northern Plains on Friday. A series of waves are expected to phase across the west coast on Friday, moving into the center of the country on Saturday. As these phased waves move into the central US, low pressure is expected to develop along the aforementioned cold front and move through the forecast area. Strong northwest winds are expected behind the front, leading to non-diurnal temperatures Friday night through Saturday. Bulk of the precipitation appears to be snow, but amounts are really varying within the ensembles. As a start, have raised pops through the day time hours across the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to moderate early next week, but will likely be impacted by snowfall across the area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 18z Euro similar to 12z but not as strong. Only goes to 90 hours though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Gfs has been terrible at ptype. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 18z Euro control 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 18z GEFS expanded the snowfield north but kept the southern edge in place. Spread the wealth! Clinton, If you look at the snow outputs of the various members, you'll see that over half of them have at least 6 inches of snow SOMEWHERE between ~200 miles south of Kansas City and ~200 miles north of Kansas City. The solutions are not converging on the location of the largest amounts of snow, so the mean smooths it over just a bit-- that's why we are seeing a larger snow swath and totals only up to 4 or 5 inches; the Ensemble mean is NOT trying to show that the swath of snow will be more expansive. Just something to take note of when looking at ensemble means. I think, eventually, we will see the means start to "shrink" a bit, and if the strength and organization of the storm holds, start to see bands of 6-10 inches. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 hours ago, someweatherdude said: Not sure why this has part of the KC metro in the ice/frozen stuff. The entire column stays below freezing. Then again, I don't have a meteorology degree. Someweatherdude, I agree with you. In order to have snow we have to saturation within the dendritic zone (-10 to -20 degrees celsius), check. Then we need to look to see if there is an elevated warm layer, which there is and it's quite steep, but since the surface temps are cold enough (at this exact point in time), the layer remains under 32. If anything, this could be a snow and sleet mix, but I would think mostly snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 This really has been a great day for trends towards a snowier solution in KC. The overall mean for snow from GEFS has jumped to 4 from being maybe an inch a few runs ago. Still, a large spread, but the key thing is, one of these solutions will actually probably be correct-- and this is coming from a numerical model that is predicting the future. To some degree, we want to see a big spread this far out because we want what actual happens to be within it. We want at least one of the members to be correct. Now, that the models are telling us they are beginning to figure it out, forecasters can start throwing out words like "snowstorm" and maybe even "major snowstorm" by tomorrow. Jack 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 I really think someone gets a good one out of this. Decent LP squeezed between two pretty stout HP. Cold is there. Ingredients seem to be there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 0z ICON direct hit for KC. 3-5 for mby 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: I noticed that in MBY (Johnson County, KS), the ICON has us in the rain at the very outset even though we're north of the 540 line with a ground temp of 17 degrees. Whatever though. I'll gladly take 5-8 inches. The ICON doesn't show frz rain and sleet, it shows it as rain so that's most likely what it's indicating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 00z GFS is a little weaker than the 18z and not as robust. Further south as well. Still stops about 7” for iowa city. But placed the heaviest snow to the south of I80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 so far euro is on its own being up here. I dont like it. Still time, although not much, for other models to come back north. Tonights euro run may have me throw in the towel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 0z GFS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 0z GFS came out with a slightly weaker solution, still WSW level threat. If the wave is just slightly more phased, these totals will drop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Please just give me at least an inch. Nothing worse than bitter cold with no snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Big jump south from the Canadian tonight. The big upper low in Canada keeps it suppressed. 1 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 0z Ukie looking better 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 The 00z UK's upper flow looks real good over the Rockies (better than the GFS/GDPS), but when the energy ejects into the midwest it runs into the confluent flow coming out of Canada and veers eastward. Iowans need the suppressive Canadian energy to relax a bit. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Ill take a ukie. give me 3-6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Definitely not feeling good with the south trends today. Will be interesting to see if the euro moves south. Lots of time yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The 00z UK's upper flow looks real good over the Rockies (better than the GFS/GDPS), but when the energy ejects into the midwest it runs into the confluent flow coming out of Canada and veers eastward. Iowans need the suppressive Canadian energy to relax a bit. Hawkeye, can you show a map portraying the features you talking about here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 55 minutes ago, Clinton said: It's never easy for KC. Are you getting a better feel for this storm tonight? I am. I think tonights GFS and GEFS put things a bit in perspective for me tonight. It didn't trend super weak or anything, but with the data from the ensembles, I don't think this will turn into something like 10 inches for Kansas City. It's not a big enough storm and its moving too quickly. Logistically, we would need to see 8 hours of snow minimum to see anything over 10 inches. This is looking like 5-7 hour window of snow at best. N Missouri, to me, is the bullseye right now. KC metro 1-4 inches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 22 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said: Hawkeye, can you show a map portraying the features you talking about here. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 I’ll take a more west east based ejection of the low versus the cutter. That would be a more share the wealth for sure much like the ukie is showing for most of use. Hoping that’s the trend and not suppression. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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