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New Year's Day Storm


bud2380

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11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The lull before more model runs. I sure hope the Euro ends up more right than wrong. 

Fun to look at, but tomorrow night/thursday morning is when we can really get an idea of what's to come.  Even then there will be shifts.   

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23 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The lull before more model runs. I sure hope the Euro ends up more right than wrong. 

The biggest difference is how the models handle the energy along the west coast.  The GFS is a little stronger and deeper and the Euro is a little weaker and more inland.  That's why I think the GFS will end up being right, but no guarantees.  We should have a good idea over the next 36hrs.  It's fun to have a storm to track though.

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DVN pretty generic, but suggesting a classic winter storm setup for the DVN CWA.

 

Saturday through next Tuesday...Latest ensembles and blends seem to
be coming together in suggesting a classic southwestern plains low
will develop and "hook" it`s way up along and northwest of the OH
RVR Valley. This path would place much of the CWA under the gun of
heavy def zone snows on northwest flank of H85 mb low pressure
center.  POPs and some confidence increasing on a significant system
for New Years Day, but still plenty of time for additional storm
track deviation. Strong cold dump and temporary arctic fetch still
on track to flow down the western GRT LKS and upper MS RVR Valley
into Sunday behind whatever system can bully it`s way through the
region on Saturday.
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DMX with a slight lean to the Euro so far.  

 

Friday and Saturday: The cold air will push in Friday, setting the
stage for single digit lows Friday night and highs Saturday from
the single digits north to upper teens south. Then Saturday a
well advertised wave is progged to lift out of the southwest US
and take aim on the midwest. Models continue to differ considerably
on the evolution of the upper trough and subsequent track of the
surface low. Latest ECMWF runs continue to track the wave across
Iowa which would yield higher snowfall amounts for our area.
Meanwhile the GFS continues to track farther south, suggesting
lower snowfall amounts and impacts for our area. Of the two
models, the ECMWF has been a bit more consistent so would lean
slihtly toward that solution at this point. Regardless of the
eventual track, given the cold temperatures, any snow that does
occur is likely to be very fluffy and with wind gusts in the 15-25
mph range should blow around.
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I didn’t realize how bad KC has done the past few years :(  Im rooting for you guys! Usually when KC gets storms we get them too in Chicago. I haven’t been watching much this year, it’s been soooo boring. This is exciting to even have something to watch finally!

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39 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Crap, I'm in the bullseye 4 days out.  That's not good.  I won't look at another map until Thursday (obvious lies)... 

Yep...the trend has been good for me today, but it's too early to get too excited. I'll patiently wait to see future model trends...and sacrifice a chicken in the backyard just to be safe.🐓

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Pivotal needs to add a 36-hr and 48-hr snowfall accumulation option.  They have 24-hr and total as options, but nothing in between.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

Not sure why this has part of the KC metro in the ice/frozen stuff.  The entire column stays below freezing. Then again, I don't have a meteorology degree.

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Our office seems to think the bulk of the precip will be snow, so I'm not sure what the GFS is doing there.  They seem to warm to the idea of accumulating snowfall also.

* Potential for first winter event across the central US on New
  Years Day.  Still a lot of uncertainty with this system.

       Thereafter, looking at a decent warming trend into Friday ahead of an active weather picture for the beginning of 2022. Hudson Bay low is expected to drive cold air south into the Northern Plains on Friday. A series of waves are expected to phase across the west coast on Friday, moving into the center of the country on Saturday. As these phased waves move into the central US, low pressure is expected to develop along the aforementioned cold front and move through the forecast area. Strong northwest winds are expected behind the front, leading to non-diurnal temperatures Friday night through Saturday. Bulk of the precipitation appears to be snow, but amounts are really varying within the ensembles. As a start, have raised pops through the day time hours across the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to moderate early next week, but will likely be impacted by snowfall across the area.

                                                                

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

18z GEFS expanded the snowfield north but kept the southern edge in place.  Spread the wealth!

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Clinton, 

If you look at the snow outputs of the various members, you'll see that over half of them have at least 6 inches of snow SOMEWHERE between ~200 miles south of Kansas City and ~200 miles north of Kansas City. The solutions are not converging on the location of the largest amounts of snow, so the mean smooths it over just a bit-- that's why we are seeing a larger snow swath and totals only up to 4 or 5 inches; the Ensemble mean is NOT trying to show that the swath of snow will be more expansive. Just something to take note of when looking at ensemble means. I think, eventually, we will see the means start to "shrink" a bit, and if the strength and organization of the storm holds, start to see bands of 6-10 inches. 

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3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Not sure why this has part of the KC metro in the ice/frozen stuff.  The entire column stays below freezing. Then again, I don't have a meteorology degree.

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Someweatherdude, I agree with you. In order to have snow we have to saturation within the dendritic zone (-10 to -20 degrees celsius), check. Then we need to look to see if there is an elevated warm layer, which there is and it's quite steep, but since the surface temps are cold enough (at this exact point in time), the layer remains under 32. If anything, this could be a snow and sleet mix, but I would think mostly snow. 

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This really has been a great day for trends towards a snowier solution in KC. The overall mean for snow from GEFS has jumped to 4 from being maybe an inch a few runs ago. Still, a large spread, but the key thing is, one of these solutions will actually probably be correct-- and this is coming from a numerical model that is predicting the future. 

To some degree, we want to see a big spread this far out because we want what actual happens to be within it. We want at least one of the members to be correct. Now, that the models are telling us they are beginning to figure it out, forecasters can start throwing out words like "snowstorm" and maybe even "major snowstorm" by tomorrow. 

 

Jack 

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5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I noticed that in MBY (Johnson County, KS), the ICON has us in the rain at the very outset even though we're north of the 540 line with a ground temp of 17 degrees.  Whatever though.  I'll gladly take 5-8 inches. 

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The ICON doesn't show frz rain and sleet, it shows it as rain so that's most likely what it's indicating.

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The 00z UK's upper flow looks real good over the Rockies (better than the GFS/GDPS), but when the energy ejects into the midwest it runs into the confluent flow coming out of Canada and veers eastward.  Iowans need the suppressive Canadian energy to relax a bit.

 

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z UK's upper flow looks real good over the Rockies (better than the GFS/GDPS), but when the energy ejects into the midwest it runs into the confluent flow coming out of Canada and veers eastward.  Iowans need the suppressive Canadian energy to relax a bit.

 

Hawkeye, can you show a map portraying the features you talking about here. 

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55 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's never easy for KC.  Are you getting a better feel for this storm tonight?

I am. I think tonights GFS and GEFS put things a bit in perspective for me tonight. It didn't trend super weak or anything, but with the data from the ensembles, I don't think this will turn into something like 10 inches for Kansas City. It's not a big enough storm and its moving too quickly. Logistically, we would need to see 8 hours of snow minimum to see anything over 10 inches. This is looking like 5-7 hour window of snow at best. N Missouri, to me, is the bullseye right now. KC metro 1-4 inches. 

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22 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Hawkeye, can you show a map portraying the features you talking about here. 

image.thumb.png.31db35b8eef82d9bde108b098bb3700d.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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