jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Euro Kuchera- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Not feeling too good up here but Euro gives me some hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Not saying it's right- (other than one hickup 2 nights ago) but the Euro has been very consistent. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 A few encouraging trends I'm seeing among the models, but especially the GEFS/EPS 500mb upstream trends that show more of a ridge building on the west coast that is allowing the energy to phase a bit better each cycle. See both the EPS/GEFS trends below.. Here is the 0z Euro Kuchera with a different look... Locally speaking, the NNE Flow off LM with True Arctic Origin Air is becoming an added bonus for us in NE IL and SE WI. The flow appears to be more northerly rather than easterly which bodes well for Chitown and NW burbs. Final thought, I like how both the 0z UKIE/EURO and even the ICON are showing the secondary "kicker" phasing better with the main 500mb Vorticity over the Baja/4 corners region. The models are struggling as to how much these energies hold together and less separation occurs. We are getting into that crucial period inside 3 days and overall I like what I'm seeing for MBY. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 0z GEFS trends that I mentioned are indicating a better phasing system as it rides up the OHV...LRC for the win??? 0z EPS a little farther NW with the snow mean....something in the middle between the GEFS and EPS would put a lot of smiles on the snow starved faces. That bullseye in S IA includes about 1" with the wave later tonight. Given the fact that this system will mainly be a higher ratio snow, it is conceivable that many will see in excess of 15:1 ratio's, esp towards the later half of the storm wherever the defo band sets up shop. I'm digging that LEHS signal off of LM into NE IL/SE WI.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 06z GFS likes KC peeps and @Clinton... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 At this point the euro is the furthest north. But it has good support from the majority of its ensemble members. The euros track would be ideal for east central iowa, so I’m hoping the other models fall into line. But I have to say I’m worried we’ll see a south shift on subsequent runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 The 06z GEFS mean actually shifted north a decent amount and is stronger than the 00z run. I’ll post maps when I can get to my laptop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: 06z GFS likes KC peeps and @Clinton... It keeps the precip going for over 12 hrs. Sleet could be a problem for mby, a lot of models have it cutting into my totals. I just need the cold air to be a little bit deeper, get that snow about 20 miles further south and I have a warning level event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 6z GEFS did move north some. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 6z NAM coming into range looks a little slower and colder than 6z GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 The GEFS has a lot of big hitters with the more northern solution. Fun times ahead 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Our office is betting on the Euro currently. Which would mean more snow for our area. But they tend to be wrong a lot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 06z Euro... Still snowing from IA and points East... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Our office is betting on the Euro currently. Which would mean more snow for our area. But they tend to be wrong a lot. I'll never forget the back-to-back years (I think, maybe there was a year in between) where we were in Blizzard warnings and all we got was rain. I don't think we have ever had a Blizzard warning actually verify in the last 20 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 It's not the biggest storm ever, because the heavy burst of snow passes through quickly, but it's nice to see the Euro holding with a farther north track through Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 53 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Our office is betting on the Euro currently. Which would mean more snow for our area. But they tend to be wrong a lot. LOT is leaning with the Euro as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 The 12z NAM took a big jump north, much closer to the Euro. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Here is the 6z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 The NAM is a perfect path for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. Would love to see this come true. Also the NAM as mentioned by Hawkeye, jumped north in line with the Euro, it also sped up the storm a lot. Previous runs it was much slower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, FV-Mike said: LOT is leaning with the Euro as well one local met is leaning for a broad 3-6" across SMI with higher end amounts to verify. We shall see. Plenty of time to track. At least we finally got something on the hook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The NAM is a perfect path for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. Would love to see this come true. Also the NAM as mentioned by Hawkeye, jumped north in line with the Euro, it also sped up the storm a lot. Previous runs it was much slower. I must admit we look to be sitting pretty here ! We seem to be the sweet spot or near it every run. We are up to 115 accounts and 55 are commercial. So gonna be a busy weekend here! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: If the GFS, NAM, Icon and Canadian all cave to the Euro, I will vomit (no offense to the Iowa peeps). KC doesn't get a lot of love from the snow gods even in a normal year. And Iowa had it's year last year. No offense taken but if you have a snow plowing business in Kansas City then you might wanna move north but if you have a snow plow business in Iowa it’s been along time since the last paycheck. Still plenty of time for kc peeps! Besides you have the Chiefs to cheer on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z RDPS is well south Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z RDPS is well south I feel like this back and fourth may continue up till Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z ICON takes a jump north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 CHI sitting pretty on the GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z GFS is back north, although not as far as the NAM... a middle ground. 1 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z GFS trying to make everyone happy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z GFS has .75”+ qpf in NE IL…I’ll take it and run…LEHS signal growing stronger each run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Big jump in totals for I-80 on the GFS! I really don't trust Kuchera though, no way LNK gets 11" out of this. 10:1 ratio is 4.9", I would think 6-7" is more realistic. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 The GFS has a high temp of 10º here Saturday. Combined with snow and strong wind, it will be very cold. I'll certainly have to break out the hand warmers to insert in my gloves. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z GEFS developing a bullseye. Ensembles look good for KC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 And now we wait for the King. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z CMC is south and very weak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z GFS...here is the whole storm... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Amazing how similar the GFS looks compared to last week Thursday. hmmmm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 The Canadian shows a flatter western trough, so the storm ejects south and weak. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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