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New Year's Day Storm


bud2380

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A few encouraging trends I'm seeing among the models, but especially the GEFS/EPS 500mb upstream trends that show more of a ridge building on the west coast that is allowing the energy to phase a bit better each cycle.  See both the EPS/GEFS trends below..

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Here is the 0z Euro Kuchera with a different look...

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Locally speaking, the NNE Flow off LM with True Arctic Origin Air is becoming an added bonus for us in NE IL and SE WI.  The flow appears to be more northerly rather than easterly which bodes well for Chitown and NW burbs.  Final thought, I like how both the 0z UKIE/EURO and even the ICON are showing the secondary "kicker"  phasing better with the main 500mb Vorticity over the Baja/4 corners region.  The models are struggling as to how much these energies hold together and less separation occurs.  We are getting into that crucial period inside 3 days and overall I like what I'm seeing for MBY.

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0z GEFS trends that I mentioned are indicating a better phasing system as it rides up the OHV...LRC for the win???

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0z EPS a little farther NW with the snow mean....something in the middle between the GEFS and EPS would put a lot of smiles on the snow starved faces.  That bullseye in S IA includes about 1" with the wave later tonight.  Given the fact that this system will mainly be a higher ratio snow, it is conceivable that many will see in excess of 15:1 ratio's, esp towards the later half of the storm wherever the defo band sets up shop.

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I'm digging that LEHS signal off of LM into NE IL/SE WI....

 

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At this point the euro is the furthest north. But it has good support from the majority of its ensemble members. The euros track would be ideal for east central iowa, so I’m hoping the other models fall into line. But I have to say I’m worried we’ll see a south shift on subsequent runs. 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

06z GFS likes KC peeps and @Clinton...

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It keeps the precip going for over 12 hrs.  Sleet could be a problem for mby, a lot of models have it cutting into my totals.  I just need the cold air to be a little bit deeper, get that snow about 20 miles further south and I have a warning level event.

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27 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Our office is betting on the Euro currently.  Which would mean more snow for our area.  But they tend to be wrong a lot.  

I'll never forget the back-to-back years (I think, maybe there was a year in between) where we were in Blizzard warnings and all we got was rain. I don't think we have ever had a Blizzard warning actually verify in the last 20 years.

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It's not the biggest storm ever, because the heavy burst of snow passes through quickly, but it's nice to see the Euro holding with a farther north track through Iowa.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The NAM is a perfect path for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.  Would love to see this come true.  Also the NAM as mentioned by Hawkeye, jumped north in line with the Euro, it also sped up the storm a lot.  Previous runs it was much slower.

 

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I must admit we look to be sitting  pretty here 😉!  We seem to be the sweet spot or near it every run.  We are up to 115 accounts and 55 are commercial. So gonna be a busy weekend here!

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15 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

If the GFS, NAM, Icon and Canadian all cave to the Euro, I will vomit (no offense to the Iowa peeps).  KC doesn't get a lot of love from the snow gods even in a normal year.  And Iowa had it's year last year. 

No offense taken but if you have a snow plowing business in Kansas City then you might wanna move north but if you have a snow plow business in Iowa it’s been along time since the last paycheck. Still plenty of time for kc peeps! Besides you have the Chiefs to cheer on.

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The GFS has a high temp of 10º here Saturday.  Combined with snow and strong wind, it will be very cold.  I'll certainly have to break out the hand warmers to insert in my gloves.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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