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New Year's Day Storm


bud2380

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9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

To give an idea of how utterly shi**y KC is for snow lovers:  We're supposed to be at 15 degrees with sleet and freezing rain on Saturday.  Chicago is supposed to be at 31 degrees with all snow. And you can't even find the explanation by looking at the maps. Our surface, 850mb and 700mb temps are all below freezing. I know why it's happening, but it doesn't make it any less frustrating.  As I've said before, EVERYTHING has to come together just right for KC to get snow.  So please no one tell me that KC has plenty of time and chances if we miss this one.  

KC really has gotten screwed for years now. I remember growing up they had some enormous storms, ice and snow.

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14 hours ago, NH4NU said:

I recommend following his Facebook page, he has multiple videos on this question. He’s an old school guy (before reliance on weather models). He came up with “Barbs Rule” (who is his wife haha) many years ago which ultimately says 3 days prior to event, step away from models and begin monitoring things like surface track and trends, checking out different NWS agencies where the storm is currently located for their local observations, etc. After 7 consecutive EURO runs followed by 12z GFS coming more in line with it yesterday afternoon (72 hours out) no more models. He even predicted yesterdays evening runs would shift their track. 

Has this method failed over the years? Yes. But I’ve followed him for 15 years now and he wins more times than not. 
 

You can use the updated 12z NAM as an example of this method. 

@Bellona From this morning. Hope this helps! 

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00z UK - The snow map is not calculating the totals correctly, so here's the precip map.  It appears to be suggesting all the convection over the Ohio Valley will steal moisture from the snow as the system heads east.

image.thumb.png.d06eb241b4d5199c86142c41dca3957b.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

This is where models get too "literal" with their numeric formulas.  I refuse to believe that there will be this sharp of a cutoff.  From a foot of snow to less than an inch in the same county? 

snku_acc.us_c.thumb.png.e06524c80e17fe05fea05e1e7df76048.png

With all do respect, have you looked at where the massive pool of dry air is setting up? Models have always struggled with dry air, and that sharp cutoff is more than likely a hint as to where that line is. Heaviest axis of snow typically sets up, just northwest of that axis. 

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Hmm.  I just realized there is an error with the Pivotal UK snow maps.  It is not multiplying the precip by the ratio like it should be, so the snow total is much lower than it actually is.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Hmm.  I just realized there is an error with the Pivotal UK snow maps.  It is not multiplying the precip by the ratio like it should be, so the snow total is much lower than it actually is.

Yea that’s weird. Thanks for pointing it out, I wouldn’t have noticed

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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10 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Sref plumes are way up for Lincoln/Omaha/Fremont

Took a look and it seems like they're way freaking north. Norfolk and Sioux City have 15" means with several members above 20". Doesn't really make sense. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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11 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Took a look and it seems like they're way freaking north. Norfolk and Sioux City have 15" means with several members above 20". Doesn't really make sense. 

Has to be a model lat/lon error right?  06z hrrr and the rap from 03z are both crazy high amounts

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6 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Has to be a model lat/lon error right?

Using 30:1 ratios further north (looks like around 20:1 or less along I-80) probably inflated totals but QPF is still way too high so far north

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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As Bud mentioned, 06z HRRR is certainly fired up and especially over into NE IL...The Lake is likely to be "our friend" with this one...if ORD manages to get 10" from this, it would easily exceed the snowfall norms to date.  ORD is sitting at a departure of -5.4".  What a turnaround this would be in the snowfall dept.  That goes for many of us in the MW/Plains region....literally from nothing, to something significant right as we open 2022!

 

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0z EPS certainly ticked upwards into parts of N MO/S IA...KC is literally the dividing line...based on the general idea from tonights ensemble runs, it is generally highlighting the jackzone to be S IA/N MO.  The GEFS are much wetter compared to the EPS.  Not sure why its so dry compared to the various other models.  Hopefully it can trend wetter in today's 12z runs.

 

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