New Year's Day Storm

[Tom]

03z RAP...total QPF for NE IL is eye candy...based on recent trends in previous storm systems and the general way nature has been behaving lately, I'm a big believer in the fact that the atmosphere this season is fired up.  The clues the higher rez models are showing where the heaviest band of precip falls should provide some idea of where the meso scaling bands develop.  How many times we have seen systems over perform this year for MI and peeps up north?  Even though this storm isn't the deepest low pressure system it will be fueled by the jet dynamics, thermal gradient and loads of gulf moisture. 

 

I'm especially interested in the run to run consistency of the higher qpf totals showing up for NE IL.  This set up is really beautiful bc the for the duration of the entire storm...the N/NE flow coming off the warm lake waters is open for biz.  

[Bellona]

Well, I certainly didn't expect this! But I'm liking it!!

[jcwxguy]

winter storm warning issued, even here, where there wasnt even a watch

[Bellona]

In an advisory for now. I won't be surprised if that upgrades this afternoon if the models don't do something screwy again!

[jcwxguy]

 

point/click forecast now says 3-5" here   (only said inch earlier) 

[Tom]

This was LOT's snowfall forecast yesterday afternoon...they should be updating it within the next 30 minutes or so...

[Bellona]

Best run of the GFS I've had for up here in a while with this storm. Wouldn't mind another 30 miles north, but I'll take it!

[Tom]

06z GFS...

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[GDR]

Wow I better get to the store before everyone goes crazy. Even if I get half of those numbers I’ll be happy!

[Clinton]

6z Euro @mlgamerhow close are you to that heavy band?

[Sciascia]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

This was LOT's snowfall forecast yesterday afternoon...they should be updating it within the next 30 minutes or so...

They lowered expected totals…

[mlgamer]

23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro @mlgamerhow close are you to that heavy band?

 

I'm pretty much sitting on the 6" line just south of that heavy snow band. A slight shift in the track could give me 6"+ or next to nothing. Topeka NWS left the watch in place for my county (Shawnee) because even they're not sure. This needs to swing south so we both stay out of the mixed precip!  

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

I'm pretty much sitting on the 6" line just south of that heavy snow band. A slight shift in the track could give me 6"+ or next to nothing. Topeka NWS left the watch in place for my county (Shawnee) because even they're not sure. This needs to swing south so we both stay out of the mixed precip!  

Things could get very icy my way.  For me it looks like that is how it's going to be, not much time for things to change.  Good luck!

[East Dubzz]

2-4” seems to be the forecast here from the NWS, and very borderline on what is the 1-3” line I assume. Seems about right to me.

[Hawkeye]

12z NAM is weaker/drier

12z 3kNAM is actually north and wetter for eastern Iowa into Wisconsin

I would expect the juiced-up short-term models to dry out today.  The Euro is not budging from its south and weak solution.

[Hawkeye]

Well, the 12z HRRR just caved south big time.

[GDR]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Well, the 12z HRRR just caved south big time.

That HRRR run lowered me from 16 to 14

[GDR]

[Hawkeye]

12z RDPS

[Stacsh]

Yawner for me unless it shifts north.  

[BrianJK]

Thinking 3-6” will be most common across Chicagoland.  Potential for higher amounts depending on the lake. 

[bud2380]

The lowest any model run shows for me is the euro with 5.5”. If I got 5” I could live with it 

[tbone8]

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS - same track, dried up the over-juiced pockets

[Iowawx]

22 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z GFS - same track, dried up the over-juiced pockets

What are you thinking for CR? I hope we can get at least 6 or 7" out of this.

[bud2380]

I'd be happy with the GFS.  I'd like to at least get 6" and almost every model shows getting that or more down here.  The 00z runs were a dream, but it seems like the final path will settle slightly south of those.  

[bud2380]

RAP also came back south from earlier runs.  And more reasonable on snow totals.

[Andie]

We’ll, Here we go!!!   Happy New Year guys! as we stumble into 2022 with hopes we see this pandemic fade away!!   
 

No. Texas will see 75* today as rain moves into the area and a High New Years of 45* before we plunge to 23*. 
 

Typical Texas “Blue Norther”. At least it’s reassuring that we can count on typical Texas winters.  

We are all praying we don’t see a repeat of the big freeze and power failure.  
Hell will rise again if the power generators fail us after last years failure, but I’m ready. 
I’d hate to be in their shoes if it does. 
________________
 

A note of sadness to those in Colorado that have lost lives and homes to this extraordinary fire. High winds and cold whipped the racing fires along.  Just mind blowing images.  

[Hawkeye]

12z GDPS

[bud2380]

I hope the UK is dead wrong. If it’s right there won’t be much snow in places that other models are showing a lot. 

[FV-Mike]

Mid Morning update from LOT. They like the Lake Enhancement possibility

No changes to tomorrow`s forecast as we await the rest of the
model suite, but the going message of an impactful winter storm
remains on track. Seeing some signs of some early lake-enhancement
that may even start of as drizzle/freezing drizzle across parts of
NE Illinois before the deeper saturation and ascent arrives
through the late morning and afternoon hours. Will take a closer
look at this for the PM update. Gusty northeast winds (especially
near the lake) look to result in a period of blowing snow as
ratios rise with the arrival of deeper cold air Saturday afternoon
and evening. Guidance has also trended towards more cohesively
towards showing bona-fide lake enhancement through later Saturday
afternoon as ratios start to take off. One lingering question is
what impacts winds off the 40 degree lake will have for the first
few hours of snowfall in our lake-adjacent areas with some
likelihood of this resulting in locally reduced SLRs for a time
eating into overall accumulations for Chicago and points south.
Either way, as the deeper cold gradually arrives, heavier rates
and blowing snow will yield increasingly nasty conditions into the
evening. May need to look into locally boosting snow totals into
parts of Lake and Porter counties in northwest Indiana as well.
Updated products for today have been sent.

 

[snowstorm83]

Kinda surprised OAX went so far north with the warnings. Still seems kinda iffy north of I-80. Regardless I feel pretty good about 5-7" in Lincoln. 

[mlgamer]

My winter storm watch was replaced by the dreaded winter weather advisory for 2-4". Nothing big here as usual. 

[Tom]

12z GEFS...

[Hawkeye]

35 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I hope the UK is dead wrong. If it’s right there won’t be much snow in places that other models are showing a lot. 

Yeah, the UK just crapped the bed for much of Iowa.

[bud2380]

The GEFS mean took a shift south too. So much change in 12 hours time so close to the storm. By tonight we’ll probably be down to a couple inches here. 

[GDR]

I’m throwing the towel in good luck to the ones that get hit bigly!! Nothing Barb can do to that UK run.

[GDR]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The GEFS mean took a shift south too. So much change in 12 hours time so close to the storm. By tonight we’ll probably be down to a couple inches here. 

I bet Jim’s going nuts right now because his barb’s rule is going to get roasted.