New Year's Day Storm

[BMT]

Pretty slick out there right now. 

[bud2380]

18z Euro not much different 

[bud2380]

HRRR coming in weak 

[jcwxguy]

9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

HRRR coming in weak 

 

 

[GDR]

Weak and south

[bud2380]

Actually ended up better than I thought. Maybe it was just slow. By noon it was just beginning accumulating in eastern iowa. 

[GDR]

Not much but a little

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR actually ticked up for Cedar Rapids, but is drier overall and really took a dump on se NE and sw IA.

It's looking like the Euro may end up 2-for-2 this week.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

What happened to central Nebraska weather? Looks like his area is poised to get hit pretty decent. 

[jcwxguy]

[centralweather44]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

What happened to central Nebraska weather? Looks like his area is poised to get hit pretty decent. 

I have been wondering the same thing 

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

NAMs still look solid here. 

[GDR]

[bud2380]

[Hawkeye]

00z RDPS

[GDR]

Don’t forget the icon

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS - Models seem to be taking a chunk out of the Omaha area this evening.

[brianc400]

LOT is sticking with their story tonight. I’ll be interested to see if a LES plume sets up over the lake near MKE and hangs over my area tomorrow or if it sets up east and hits Tom to the east. Better yet, both

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

00z GDPS - The GDPS and UK now have the same precip total for Cedar Rapids... only 0.24".  We may need a good ratio just to exceed 3".

[snowstorm83]

So I’m actually kinda faded rn lol  But I’m just ready for radar time. It could be 2” or 8” here and I guess I’ll find out tomorrow!

[jcwxguy]

fremont, ne is gonna bust bad if trends hold

[Clinton]

3z RAP @mlgamer @Jayhawker85Rap and other models look good for you guys tonight.  Good luck, I hoping for an inch or two down here.

[Bellona]

19 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

So I’m actually kinda faded rn lol  But I’m just ready for radar time. It could be 2” or 8” here and I guess I’ll find out tomorrow!

Omg me too man!! Happy new year! 

[OttumwaSnomow]

I just noticed  NWS increased  amounts  over my local counties here. 8 -14  is a pretty bold forecast if you look at historical  events here. #sweetspot

[Jayhawker85]

44 minutes ago, Clinton said:

3z RAP @mlgamer @Jayhawker85Rap and other models look good for you guys tonight.  Good luck, I hoping for an inch or two down here.

I’m currently in Houston where it’s been in the 80’s all week and suppose to return back to kc tomorrow.

Our original flight has already been canceled due to the weather so hopefully we will make it in tomorrow night. I’m hoping to make it back to a winter wonderland!

[jcwxguy]

nws blend of models still shows 7" lincoln  5.5" omaha, 5.4" here in fremont

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Quote

UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

No changes of significance from previous forecast. Snow to liquid
ratios may be a bit too high based on the amount of wind we will
have, which could lead to fracturing of snowflakes and compaction.
Will address in the upcoming forecast package in about 4-5 hours.

nws oax

[hlcater]

If this isn't getting the shaft, I don't know what is. Shades of November 2018.

 

[jcwxguy]

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

If this isn't getting the shaft, I don't know what is. Shades of November 2018.

 

 

only shows 1.7" here, and we have a warning LOL 

[bud2380]

Hopefully the HRRR is as wrong now as it was last night when it showed 15”. 

[Tom]

4 hours ago, brianc400 said:

LOT is sticking with their story tonight. I’ll be interested to see if a LES plume sets up over the lake near MKE and hangs over my area tomorrow or if it sets up east and hits Tom to the east. Better yet, both

Sharing is caring my friend!  Hope your doing well and its good to see you back on here.  Welcome to 2022!

[Tom]

I took a deep glance into the higher rez models and mainly focusing on the Lehs/LES potential and it is really starting to look fascinating.  The models are extending the NNE Flow about a few more hours into NE IL towards daybreak tomorrow morning which gives us an added opportunity for the Lake Plume to stack up the snow.  Every single CAM is suggesting that a long fetched Lake Plume develops just after dinner time tonight but really ramps up around midnight.  This plume appears to stay put for a good 3-6+ hours that could literally dump snow into NE IL!  I've seen this set up before in the cold winter of '13-'14 and I think it was Jan or Feb '14 where we had a distinct back side lake plume develop but it only swiped the area for about 1-2 hours.  If we are to believe the models and suggest that the flow stay consistent for a number of extra hours, I could see some 12"+ totals pile up.

For Example, if you take the FV3 into consideration and one will clearly see the solid plume hugging SE/WI NE IL...I wouldn't necessarily focus on the qpf totals bc models tend to underestimate these amounts.  This is a classic LES set up for Chicago and lakeside counties.

 

Another few models support this idea...this lake plume is going to be puking snow....I gotta good feeling about this...

 

 

 

For eye candy purposes, the last LR HRRR runs including both 0z/06z are showing over 1.00"qpf (1.45"max) into parts of COOK county.  Obviously, this is way overdone but it illustrates the awesome dynamics the LES has in store.  Should be fun night of tracking.

[Tom]

06z GFS also trending the way of the CAM's for NE IL...bullseye N MO/SE IA???

 

[clintbeed1993]

Wow, turning into quite the turd for most of Nebraska. What a joke

[Bellona]

17 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Wow, turning into quite the turd for most of Nebraska. What a joke

Pretty much crap for all of us north of 80 in Nebraska and most of Iowa. Maaaybe we well be surprised but, I'm not holding my breath.