New Year's Day Storm

[Hawkeye]

Man, this thing continues to fade.  The latest HRRR has Cedar Rapids down to 2".  Ames and Omaha still both have a warning, but the HRRR now has <0.5" of snow falling in both locations.  Unreal.

It still looks good for Ottumwa.

[GDR]

What does barb say? Stop looking at models right?

[bud2380]

12z HRRR slight improvement over 11z. Small shift north. Hopefully that signals the end of the south shift this morning. It still shows 5.5” for iowa city area and I’d be happy with that. 

[Tom]

It’s a shame this system couldn’t phase into a better storm.  Just looking at the radar and seeing all that moisture not being wrapped back into the cold sector is a sad missed opportunity.

[bud2380]

NAM says storm is still on for Cedar Rapids on south. 

[Clinton]

8 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m currently in Houston where it’s been in the 80’s all week and suppose to return back to kc tomorrow.

Our original flight has already been canceled due to the weather so hopefully we will make it in tomorrow night. I’m hoping to make it back to a winter wonderland!

Local mets this morning saying 2-4 for your area!  Right now things are pretty icy, frz rain has been falling since 3am .  Your precip should change to snow around noon.

[bud2380]

FV3 also says. Storm still on. 

[Clinton]

@Tom12z HRRR has the lake really pumping up your totals!  It's a icy mess here this morning so good luck and hope it goes bigly for you.  Very jealous of Ottuma this morning, he's going to have a great day if the models hold true.

[bud2380]

3K NAM still drops close to 7” for iowa city and Cedar Rapids. 

[East Dubzz]

I’m going to see the forecast of 3-4” here is a bit too high. 1-2” seems more realistic.

[Clinton]

Precip here has changed to sleet which is slightly less sucky than frz rain.  If I can get enough snow to get the ground white later I'll call it a win.

[snowstorm83]

Well I've recovered from last night, didn't even make it to midnight LOL. Anyways, this thing seems behind schedule here. First few flakes are just starting. Think we have a bust on our hands, but I'm still hoping for a few inches at least. 

[centralweather44]

1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well I've recovered from last night, didn't even make it to midnight LOL. Anyways, this thing seems behind schedule here. First few flakes are just starting. Think we have a bust on our hands, but I'm still hoping for a few inches at least. 

Ya I was figured we would have been going around 4-5:00am. Going to be a big flop for local forecasters the way it’s looking. I’m hoping we can get at least 2”. Would make it a plowable event at that point at least 

[bud2380]

Snow has begun here. Just some flurries so far. Temp around 15°

[BrianJK]

On 12/31/2021 at 9:33 AM, BrianJK said:

Thinking 3-6” will be most common across Chicagoland.  Potential for higher amounts depending on the lake. 

Curious if the afternoon shift will replace any of the warnings with advisories for areas away from the lake.  

[Hawkeye]

Final GFS - Still pretty bullish for Iowa City.  It's already snowing down there, so they will certainly do better than Cedar Rapids.

[bud2380]

Snow is picking up now.  Still light but steadily coming down now.  

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, BrianJK said:

Curious if the afternoon shift will replace any of the warnings with advisories for areas away from the lake.  

If ORD gets 6” I’ll consider that a win…not sure what this implies down the road, but I’ve been getting on/off lake effect snow showers/flurries.

[james1976]

Wind Chill Advisory til noon tomorrow. That's all I'm looking at. Good luck to you all!

[Sciascia]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

If ORD gets 6” I’ll consider that a win…not sure what this implies down the road, but I’ve been getting on/off lake effect snow showers/flurries.

At the very least, it should mean you won’t have dry air issues to deal with

[snowstorm83]

Rates are becoming more steady and visibility getting low, but only a dusting at this point. The airport still has nothing, being in far southeast Lincoln probably helps. With that said, I'd be happy with 2" by the end of this one -  dry air has really killed it. Basically everything last year met or exceeded expectations so I guess it was time for a pooper. 

[mlgamer]

After a sleetfest this morning, transitioned to snow around 8:30 or so. I'm guessing this will be a 1-2" event for MBY.

[GDR]

It’s Puking outside right now!

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

At the very least, it should mean you won’t have dry air issues to deal with

Btw, aren’t you located near Schiller Park?  Or is that someone else I’m thinking of…

[Hawkeye]

I'm seeing a few flurries.

[BMT]

Big dry slot down In Southern Iowa.  

[shakjen]

Started snowing here about 20 minutes ago.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Moderate  snow now, about 1 inch. 10.4 F

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids is getting solid snow now.

[Sciascia]

36 minutes ago, Tom said:

Btw, aren’t you located near Schiller Park?  Or is that someone else I’m thinking of…

I used to be. Completely moved out to Poplar Grove (25 minutes NE of Rockford) in September. Wife & I bought a house here in 2019, but my job was still near Chicago until Sept.

[Tom]

Just now, Sciascia said:

I used to be. Completely moved out to Poplar Grove (25 minutes NE of Rockford) in September.

Oh wow, not that's a move!  I'm familiar with the area and its very quiet and peaceful out there.

[Sciascia]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Oh wow, not that's a move!  I'm familiar with the area and its very quiet and peaceful out there.

Yeah, pretty peaceful. But not easy to find an internet provider that’s not satellite. I miss my Xfinity internet, lol.

LOT with an update:

SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING ANY IMPACTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ON  
POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH  
SEVERAL GOOD-SIZED HOLES NOTED IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS  
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THAT SAID, UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS  
PRESENT ON REGION SOUNDINGS (AND WE CAN SEE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE  
MANIFESTED IN THE RADAR RETURNS), AND HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME DEGREE  
OF THIS FILLING IN OVER THE LAST HOUR OF SO WITH THE ARRIVAL OF  
BETTER JET DYNAMICS. HRRR/RAP COMBO HAVE CERTAINLY TRENDED  
DOWNWARDS A BIT IN THE QPF OUTPUT AWAY FROM THE LAKE, AND ENVISION  
THERE WILL BE SOME "HOLES" IN THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN BETWEEN THE  
DOMINANT F-GEN FORCING AND AND ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NO MEANINGFUL  
CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH, WITH OUR 4-7"  
INLAND STILL LOOKING OKAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE. WE'LL  
SEE IF ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO OUR NORTHERN  
TIER OF COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH THE FULL PM UPDATE. 

[Jayhawker85]

A bust for KC! Dry slot said you not gonna enjoy much of anything!

[bud2380]

1" report near Iowa City.  Seems a bit suspect to me.  I'd say 1/2" or less here so far.  I'll wait to measure until we get a little more. 

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR upped Cedar Rapids to 4.5" a few runs ago (after dropping to 2" earlier), but has been dropping again since.  The latest is down to 1.8".  However, it doesn't have any accumulating snow til almost 2pm, which is clearly wrong as accumulating snow has already overspread the area.

The snow is blowing right off my snow board, so it will be difficult to get a good measurement.

[bud2380]

4.5" report already from SE Iowa.  

[FV-Mike]

snow has begun in the western burbs

[hlcater]

39 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR upped Cedar Rapids to 4.5" a few runs ago (after dropping to 2" earlier), but has been dropping again since.  The latest is down to 1.8".  However, it doesn't have any accumulating snow til almost 2pm, which is clearly wrong as accumulating snow has already overspread the area.

The snow is blowing right off my snow board, so it will be difficult to get a good measurement.

Flurries only in Hiawatha so far.

[bud2380]

Not that it matters much now, but the Euro shifted back north.  Now has 7.1" for Iowa City.

[hlcater]

Snow has picked up now but flakes are small