New Year's Day Storm

[ToastedRavs]

That cutoff line on the 0z NAM is a little too close for comfort, like someone placed a brick wall slicing Iowa in half

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

0z NAM coming in colder, has snow for KC instead of sleet

 

[jcwxguy]

huge difference for me between regular nam and 3km nam (fremont, ne)   .1" vs 5.2"

[Hawkeye]

The NAM was north and juiced this morning.  Now it's even drier for Omaha and Lincoln than the dry Euro.

[jcwxguy]

[Jayhawker85]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z NAM coming in colder, has snow for KC instead of sleet

 

The NAM heard you doing your snow dance lol

[Bellona]

Anyone take a look at plumes? I just checked for cf/wloo... Anywhere from 0 to 19 inches lol. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The NAM heard you doing your snow dance lol

It needs to try harder lol.  Still mostly a ice fest for me.

[jcwxguy]

fv3

 

[snowstorm83]

Dumb question but what’s the difference between the regular NAM and 3km? Is one typically better? I’ve never really paid attention enough to notice if one performs better.

[Hawkeye]

15 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

fv3

Too north, way too juiced.

[Jack_GradStudent]

Just noticed something. On weatherbell you can do cross sections of the temperature profile. I have been focusing on the 850 temperature thinking that once that goes below freezing, we will have a transition to snow. I was confused why the precip type maps were showing sleet when the 850 temps were below freezing. The cross sections (at least the latest nam) reveals the warm layer is between 850-700. I circled the warm layer. This is for Johnson county airport. 

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Dumb question but what’s the difference between the regular NAM and 3km? Is one typically better? I’ve never really paid attention enough to notice if one performs better.

the difference is the resolution the model runs at. The regular NAM is 12km vs the 3km hi-res NAM. One would think that the 3km NAM would be more accurate with it's higher resolution of data, but I digress...

[jcwxguy]

icon slightly north 

[The Snowman]

Woah, NWS Omaha updates watch language for the city:

Quote

...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

 

[GDR]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Here's the SREF plumes viewer: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Omaha's 21Z run of models shows a range of 1.6" to 24.2" with an average of 10.3"

[Jack_GradStudent]

10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

the difference is the resolution the model runs at. The regular NAM is 12km vs the 3km hi-res NAM. One would think that the 3km NAM would be more accurate with it's higher resolution of data, but I digress...

It has a higher resolution but that doesn't mean its more accurate. It is convection allowing, so it should be utilized closer to the onset of the storm. This far out it is probably not accurate. 

[The Snowman]

Like GDR just showed with those graphics above, it's remarkable how wild the differences can be between the NAM 12km and the NAM 3km. I'm no modeling expert but it certainly seems that hi-res models are prone to exaggerating precipitation totals year-round - I have no formal data to back that up, but it always seems like the HRRR, NAM 3km & similar convection-allowing models are hyper-sensitive when it comes to storm systems and showing precip amounts well above what transpires.

 

[Jack_GradStudent]

10 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Like GDR just showed with those graphics above, it's remarkable how wild the differences can be between the NAM 12km and the NAM 3km. I'm no modeling expert but it certainly seems that hi-res models are prone to exaggerating precipitation totals year-round - I have no formal data to back that up, but it always seems like the HRRR, NAM 3km & similar convection-allowing models are hyper-sensitive when it comes to storm systems and showing precip amounts well above what transpires.

 

Yes, exactly! They can easily blow up and show wayyyy too much qpf for systems. 

[NH4NU]

We're still going model by model I see... 

[The Snowman]

A little wetter in Omaha from the 00z GFS, waiting for final tallies to post QPF numbers

[clintbeed1993]

3 minutes ago, NH4NU said:

We're still going model by model I see... 

 

This is a weather forum and a thread on this particular storm..what exactly are people supposed to do on here before the storm hits?

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

GFS!!
 

[jcwxguy]

[clintbeed1993]

Here's something different to make NH4NU happy..new NWS snowfall probability maps. Gives a good idea of where heaviest is likely. 

[NH4NU]

2 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

 

This is a weather forum and a thread on this particular storm..what exactly are people supposed to do on here before the storm hits?

I have been a member of this blog since 2014 sir. I wish someone would have told me years ago, to not stress run to run, but instead monitor trends. 

[Hawkeye]

I didn't expect the GFS to inch north and juice up.

[Stacsh]

Trust the globals at this point.  Nam and FV and HRR are on crack.   Lower end totals for sure.  

[NH4NU]

1 minute ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Here's something different to make NH4NU happy..new NWS snowfall probability maps. Gives a good idea of where heaviest is likely. 

Lol. Makes me "so happy". I am not a wishcaster for where I live. I would assume with those probability maps that you go off of the 40-60% category for zoning purposes, right? 

[BMT]

Hello GFS!

[Bellona]

I think that GFS run makes a lot of us happy! Spread the flakes around!!

[The Snowman]

10 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

A little wetter in Omaha from the 00z GFS, waiting for final tallies to post QPF numbers

00z GFS vs 18z GFS QPF totals, added 0.05" to Omaha, probably equates to 7-8" of snow spitballing 17:1 - 20:1 ratios.

Edit: More importantly, that razor gradient shifted north away from the city.

[clintbeed1993]

3 minutes ago, NH4NU said:

Lol. Makes me "so happy". I am not a wishcaster for where I live. I would assume with those probability maps that you go off of the 40-60% category for zoning purposes, right? 

You may not be a wishcaster, but you are sure an annoying **

[NH4NU]

Just now, clintbeed1993 said:

You may not be a wishcaster, but you are sure an annoying **

Bummer that you don't remember me, because we used to interact often on this blog, back to the Craig McPeck days! Very touchy timeframe we are in here, I get it. Happy New Years!

[jcwxguy]

lol craigo LOL

[NH4NU]

4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

lol craigo LOL

I legit miss Craig hahah!