New Year's Day Storm

[Sciascia]

This thing coming apart at the seams (in terms of a big snow) is unfortunate to see.

[GDR]

By tonight’s runs we might be looking at a nothing Burger for most of us

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

This thing coming apart at the seams (in terms of a big snow) is unfortunate to see.

Ya, my concern was the disconnection of both energies and it is not looking like an overwhelming broad area of heavier precip in the cold sector.  I'm really worried that the convection down south doesnt steal our moisture.  I am encouraged, however, that the lake will enhance our totals by a few inches.  That is looking really nice for Lake/Cook counties.  The IBM GRAF model which does really well at this range is suggesting a long fetched "lake plume" developing every in the morning on Sat and holding steady all day and night, even after Midnight Sat into parts of the Chicago area.

[snowstorm83]

Euro a bit south and weaker

[bud2380]

Euro sucks. Lol. Still gonna show 5” here though. 

[Hawkeye]

I'm going with 3" in Cedar Rapids.  They may need to cancel warnings north of I-80.

[bud2380]

Euro has been steady and consistently weaker. I hope it’s wrong. Not holding my breath though. I just want 6”. 

[snowstorm83]

Though the wind will make for some cooler blowing/drifting, it'll probably hurt the potential for high ratios. With the euro, I still take my chances with 0.25-0.3" of QPF at 4 degrees, but the northern edge is getting pretty close. Starting to think more like 4-5" here, I said 5-7" before I really looked at everything this morning 

[gabel23]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm going with 3" in Cedar Rapids.  They may need to cancel warnings north of I-80.

I was just upgraded to a warning and I live north of I-80. I’m not sure what to expect for my area. Things have been changing back and forth so much and I’ve been on the edge the whole time. 

[Clinton]

12z Euro going to make for a tough forecast in KC.

[BMT]

Man- this thing is turning into a turd

[OmahaSnowFan]

I'd start to focus on the higher res short term models at this point. We're within 24 hours so they should be pretty accurate.

[bud2380]

Huge differences between the Euro and GFS less than 24 hours before the start of the storm.  Let's see who wins.  Euro isn't always right, that much I have definitely learned in my many years tracking winter storms.

 

GFS further north and stronger.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

vs. the weaker and further south Euro.

 

[gimmesnow]

With how horrible December was I'm just glad this isn't rain for me.

[jcwxguy]

rip betty white

[snowstorm83]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

rip betty white

Nooo way! She was so close to 100

[jcwxguy]

hrrr

[jcwxguy]

18z nam is looking good for omaha/lincoln

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

LOL

The 18z NAM never fails to deliver.

[gabel23]

Crazy how much this map has wobbled back and forth. The marking line still ends up being the platte river. Crazy how much that comes into play with these storms! Well will see what happens; things looking good for 4" in my area. 

[Sciascia]

LOT has issued warnings for lakeside counties, as well as northern counties like McHenry, Boone (whoo!), and Winnebago.

[FV-Mike]

1 minute ago, Sciascia said:

LOT has issued warnings for lakeside counties, as well as northern counties like McHenry, Boone (whoo!), and Winnebago.

Was interested to see what LOT was going to do. Glad to get the first WSW of the season. 

[hlcater]

I’m gonna stick with my first call of 4” for now. Will have to reevaluate after the 00z runs. 

[The Snowman]

Hmmm... not sure how I feel about the outlook for Omaha. NWS has us at 4-7" as was posted above, but I can't help but feel like that might be a little aggressive. Personally think 3-6" (or even 3-5") in the city is more believable. Recent drier trend gives me a gut feeling of being the correct outcome (though I'd love to be wrong)

[The Snowman]

7 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Hmmm... not sure how I feel about the outlook for Omaha. NWS has us at 4-7" as was posted above, but I can't help but feel like that might be a little aggressive. Personally think 3-6" (or even 3-5") in the city is more believable. Recent drier trend gives me a gut feeling of being the correct outcome (though I'd love to be wrong)

And of course right as I say that, NWS Omaha comes out with their refreshed snow forecast placing the 6-8" range just on the city's doorstep.

[gabel23]

6 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

And of course right as I say that, NWS Omaha comes out with their refreshed snow forecast placing the 6-8" range just on the city's doorstep.

Yeah I’m waiting to see what GID does.  Amounts for my area have been climbing since this morning. OAX is going aggressive and Hastings has been the exact opposite ever since watches were posted. I wasn’t even in a watch and went from advisory to a warning within 6 hours! 

[Bellona]

Is it just me or, are the models more wishy-washy than they used to be? Maybe it was before I really started paying attention? I know when they upgraded the GFS it was awful. Just seems to me there's are.mkre instances of rather large spreads even as we approach events. Just my thoughts. To whomever gets snow, have fun! I'm gonna stick with around 3-5 for me in Waterloo. 

[bud2380]

DVN must not be siding with the Euro.  They've got 6-11" in my  point forecast.

 

New Year's Day

Snow, mainly after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 10am. High near 15. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow likely before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[Jaycee]

3 hours ago, Sciascia said:

This thing coming apart at the seams (in terms of a big snow) is unfortunate to see.

Fwiw, based off that storm that produced that crazy tornado outbreak a few weeks ago, the models were sort of underselling how intense that low pressure was going to be up being til the last minute I feel like. Heck, most of Nebraska wasn’t expecting severe weather and then the day of they get in an enhanced risk and Lincoln sets a record for highest straight line winds. also, Minneapolis ended up with 21” of snow when they were predicting around 8-12”. We have unusually warm waters in the Gulf and in the Lakes, I think these recent trends of it being weaker are wrong. It’s more so a question of where it’s going to happen. I’m also never right and don’t know what I’m talking about lol but just my guess!

[BMT]

20 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

DVN must not be siding with the Euro.  They've got 6-11" in my  point forecast.

 

New Year's Day

Snow, mainly after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 10am. High near 15. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow likely before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

My point went up by 3 inches as well

[snowstorm83]

OAX warning updated now says 5-10”. Jeez, they’re not holding back on this one.

[BMT]

Dmx updated graphic

[bud2380]

Gfs with 8” for iowa city. 

[Jack_GradStudent]

Here's my final take before we throw away all the models and look outside. Tough, tough forecast for the KC metro.. not only dealing with the D**n elevated warm layer, but not dealing with dry slot. There will quite the cut off. 

https://whatgoesonoutside.com/major-new-years-winter-storm-to-affect-kansas-city/

 

[jcwxguy]

very sharp cutoff for my county

 

[snowstorm83]

Might mean nothing at this point, but 18z GEFS mean is south by a couple counties 

[GDR]

[hlcater]

29 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Might mean nothing at this point, but 18z GEFS mean is south by a couple counties 

Doesn't really appear to be south, just much drier.