New Year's Day Storm

[bud2380]

00z GFS with a low end warning/high end advisory event for a good chunk of Iowa. 

 

[Clinton]

0z GFS and ICON are both further south and weaker.  Also more west to east orientated which I buy into.

 

[Hawkeye]

We have all that energy in the west, but then the whole thing gets tipped positive and goes to crap.

[Jack_GradStudent]

Part of me is really beginning to question if there will even be an organized wave of energy. In the latest run of the GEFS, you can see the various members are still having a difficult time with the wave as it dives down near Baja, California. Some have it cut off at this point while others don't. There has been a trend with this energy staying more near to the shore and not being as amplified at this specific point in its track. Low low confidence for this first wave. 

[Hawkeye]

00z GDPS.... the system is losing steam on the models, but a 3-6" event would still be respectable, especially considering my total this season is 0.0".

[Hawkeye]

The 00z UK is super weak, only a few inches across the region.

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro is similar to other models... produces a nice burst of snow that moves through quickly, lays down a moderate band.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Kuchera-

 

 

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Jarod said:

Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though.

The models are suggesting it starts snowing up in the Foothills of CO late on the 30th into the NYE.  What part of CO are you arriving into?

[Clinton]

6z GFS seems a little wetter and higher totals for KC

6z ICON goes bonkers and is further south.  This map is at 10:1 and has snow still falling all the way back to SC Kansas at hr 120.  @MIKEKCmay have hacked the model 

[Clinton]

6z EC shifts south also showing the main storm holding together and not taking the main energy across the deep south.

 

[GDR]

Icon for the win!!

[tStacsh]

I'm not greedy, I'll take a cold 3-6" of snow any day this winter.   No more slop.  

 

Looks like we do have a nice HP slipping down to keep this storm from going too far north.   While it might not be a big dog, looks like a few members here will get some accumulating snow.  

[someweatherdude]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z EC shifts south also showing the main storm holding together and not taking the main energy across the deep south.

 

Seems like an overall southerly shift today.  Probably because that high pressure is moving south faster than previously forecast.  The cold gets to KC earlier.  Today's GFS 6z run has KC at 20 degrees this coming Saturday morning.  Yesterday's GFS 6z run had us at 54 degrees at the same time.  Gotta take it all with a huge grain of salt, though.  GFS is no bueno.   

[bud2380]

GFS shifted way south.

 

[Clinton]

34 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Seems like an overall southerly shift today.  Probably because that high pressure is moving south faster than previously forecast.  The cold gets to KC earlier.  Today's GFS 6z run has KC at 20 degrees this coming Saturday morning.  Yesterday's GFS 6z run had us at 54 degrees at the same time.  Gotta take it all with a huge grain of salt, though.  GFS is no bueno.   

12z GFS blast KC!

[GDR]

Love it gfs is on crack again!! Lol

[bud2380]

Only a 250 mile shift south.  I think it'll be a couple more days before models sort this out.  The last big snowstorm that hit southern Minnesota shifted south as well before coming back north on models.  A lot to be ironed out.  

[someweatherdude]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS blast KC!

 

1 minute ago, GDR said:

Love it gfs is on crack again!! Lol

This about sums up our forum and the GFS.  Maybe the GFS is trolling those of us further south (AGAIN), but after a dismal December, I'll allow it.  I've said it before.  It's like a toxic relationship you know you should leave, but the "intimacy" is so good, you just can't break away. 

[tStacsh]

Of course if this went south of me that would be hilarious in an annoying way.   Long way to go still.  

[someweatherdude]

If this were to happen--HUGE "IF"--KC would be back on track to at least have an overall normal total snowfall this winter.  KC was in between areas of AN snowfall to the north and south of it last year, with about 80% of normal here.  We're due. 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

If this were to happen--HUGE "IF"--KC would be back on track to at least have an overall normal total snowfall this winter.  KC was in between areas of AN snowfall to the north and south of it last year, with about 80% of normal here.  We're due. 

I'll buy in on it as well.  The models have been trending to a more organized and phased storm and as you pointed out much colder.  Also a more bowling ball type storm lines up well with the LRC.  Long ways to go and in KC nothing is ever set in stone.

[Jayhawker85]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'll buy in on it as well.  The models have been trending to a more organized and phased storm and as you pointed out much colder.  Also a more bowling ball type storm lines up well with the LRC.  Long ways to go and in KC nothing is ever set in stone.

As what Gary stated, this storm should take a southern route and bless us! We just need it to stay strong and phased together like last cycle and everyone in here in the region will be smiling for days!

[Hawkeye]

GDPS (Canadian)

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

As what Gary stated, this storm should take a southern route and bless us! We just need it to stay strong and phased together like last cycle and everyone in here in the region will be smiling for days!

Certainly has big potential, we need to break the ice and get Winter started.

[Jarod]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

The models are suggesting it starts snowing up in the Foothills of CO late on the 30th into the NYE.  What part of CO are you arriving into?

I'm heading to Loveland, CO

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

[tStacsh]

The GFS would also wipe away any snow on the ground with more record highs the following week.  

[Clinton]

12z GEFS went south also, there are a few big hitters.

[GDR]

Until I see 3 gfs runs in a row a like I’m not holding my breath. 

[someweatherdude]

57 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The GFS would also wipe away any snow on the ground with more record highs the following week.  

I saw that too.  That's typical in KC anyway.  I don't like it, but that's life on the edge of winter for us.  Hopefully the warm up isn't as warm as the GFS is saying.  It goes pretty darn cold again after that.

[Hawkeye]

Bucking the se trend, the 12z Euro is nw and big for Iowa.   It looks a bit more phased and not just a piece of energy being sheared out.

[Hawkeye]

10:1 Euro.... it should be cold so the ratio would be better.

[bud2380]

Whoooo Euro!!  Subtract 3-4" in Iowa City and CR from previous events.  

 

[bud2380]

Wider view

 

[mlgamer]

Just for fun check out this Topeka 68 degree temperature disparity at 240 hrs on the 12z models:  GFS: 62F;  CMC: -6F.

[Clinton]

12z EPS drifting south but still north of the GEFS

[bud2380]

Euro control very similar to the Euro

 

[bud2380]

The lull before more model runs. I sure hope the Euro ends up more right than wrong. 

[tStacsh]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The lull before more model runs. I sure hope the Euro ends up more right than wrong. 

Fun to look at, but tomorrow night/thursday morning is when we can really get an idea of what's to come.  Even then there will be shifts.   

[Clinton]

23 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The lull before more model runs. I sure hope the Euro ends up more right than wrong. 

The biggest difference is how the models handle the energy along the west coast.  The GFS is a little stronger and deeper and the Euro is a little weaker and more inland.  That's why I think the GFS will end up being right, but no guarantees.  We should have a good idea over the next 36hrs.  It's fun to have a storm to track though.

[snowstorm83]

Pulling for the euro as well but I wouldn’t be upset if KC gets hit, you guys need it. This thing should come into focus within the next few rounds of runs.

[someweatherdude]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The biggest difference is how the models handle the energy along the west coast.  The GFS is a little stronger and deeper and the Euro is a little weaker and more inland.  That's why I think the GFS will end up being right, but no guarantees.  We should have a good idea over the next 36hrs.  It's fun to have a storm to track though.

18z Icon came back south just a bit, and is a bit stronger.  FWIW.

[Jack_GradStudent]

Hello everyone... it's been a day with getting my wisdom teeth out this morning. Just before the surgery, I got a glimpse of 12z run of the GFS and not only that, but the ensembles responded to this trend as well. Let's see if this evenings runs continue this trend... 

[bud2380]

DVN pretty generic, but suggesting a classic winter storm setup for the DVN CWA.

 

Saturday through next Tuesday...Latest ensembles and blends seem to
be coming together in suggesting a classic southwestern plains low
will develop and "hook" it`s way up along and northwest of the OH
RVR Valley. This path would place much of the CWA under the gun of
heavy def zone snows on northwest flank of H85 mb low pressure
center.  POPs and some confidence increasing on a significant system
for New Years Day, but still plenty of time for additional storm
track deviation. Strong cold dump and temporary arctic fetch still
on track to flow down the western GRT LKS and upper MS RVR Valley
into Sunday behind whatever system can bully it`s way through the
region on Saturday.

[bud2380]

DMX with a slight lean to the Euro so far.  

 

Friday and Saturday: The cold air will push in Friday, setting the
stage for single digit lows Friday night and highs Saturday from
the single digits north to upper teens south. Then Saturday a
well advertised wave is progged to lift out of the southwest US
and take aim on the midwest. Models continue to differ considerably
on the evolution of the upper trough and subsequent track of the
surface low. Latest ECMWF runs continue to track the wave across
Iowa which would yield higher snowfall amounts for our area.
Meanwhile the GFS continues to track farther south, suggesting
lower snowfall amounts and impacts for our area. Of the two
models, the ECMWF has been a bit more consistent so would lean
slihtly toward that solution at this point. Regardless of the
eventual track, given the cold temperatures, any snow that does
occur is likely to be very fluffy and with wind gusts in the 15-25
mph range should blow around.

[bud2380]

18z GFS took a jog north, similar to the Euro, but more than just a jog north, it looks strong and a much wider snow shield vs. 12z so more people get in on the action.

 

[bud2380]

The DVN CWA gets blasted on this run.  Subtract 6" from CR and 1-3" in most other places north of I80 from previous storms.

 

[tStacsh]

Crap, I'm in the bullseye 4 days out.  That's not good.  I won't look at another map until Thursday (obvious lies)... 

[someweatherdude]

Yup.  Just a bit north this run. Maybe because it moves east just a bit faster on this run?   Let the wobble back and forth begin.