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New Year's Day Storm


bud2380
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I didn’t realize how bad KC has done the past few years :(  Im rooting for you guys! Usually when KC gets storms we get them too in Chicago. I haven’t been watching much this year, it’s been soooo boring. This is exciting to even have something to watch finally!

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2 minutes ago, Jaycee said:

I didn’t realize how bad KC has done the past few years :(  Im rooting for you guys! Usually when KC gets storms we get them too in Chicago. I haven’t been watching much this year, it’s been soooo boring. This is exciting to even have something to watch finally!

Yeah.  It's been a struggle.  Thanks for the well-wishes.

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39 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Crap, I'm in the bullseye 4 days out.  That's not good.  I won't look at another map until Thursday (obvious lies)... 

Yep...the trend has been good for me today, but it's too early to get too excited. I'll patiently wait to see future model trends...and sacrifice a chicken in the backyard just to be safe.🐓

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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Pivotal needs to add a 36-hr and 48-hr snowfall accumulation option.  They have 24-hr and total as options, but nothing in between.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

Not sure why this has part of the KC metro in the ice/frozen stuff.  The entire column stays below freezing. Then again, I don't have a meteorology degree.

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Our office seems to think the bulk of the precip will be snow, so I'm not sure what the GFS is doing there.  They seem to warm to the idea of accumulating snowfall also.

* Potential for first winter event across the central US on New
  Years Day.  Still a lot of uncertainty with this system.

       Thereafter, looking at a decent warming trend into Friday ahead of an active weather picture for the beginning of 2022. Hudson Bay low is expected to drive cold air south into the Northern Plains on Friday. A series of waves are expected to phase across the west coast on Friday, moving into the center of the country on Saturday. As these phased waves move into the central US, low pressure is expected to develop along the aforementioned cold front and move through the forecast area. Strong northwest winds are expected behind the front, leading to non-diurnal temperatures Friday night through Saturday. Bulk of the precipitation appears to be snow, but amounts are really varying within the ensembles. As a start, have raised pops through the day time hours across the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to moderate early next week, but will likely be impacted by snowfall across the area.

                                                                

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

18z GEFS expanded the snowfield north but kept the southern edge in place.  Spread the wealth!

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Clinton, 

If you look at the snow outputs of the various members, you'll see that over half of them have at least 6 inches of snow SOMEWHERE between ~200 miles south of Kansas City and ~200 miles north of Kansas City. The solutions are not converging on the location of the largest amounts of snow, so the mean smooths it over just a bit-- that's why we are seeing a larger snow swath and totals only up to 4 or 5 inches; the Ensemble mean is NOT trying to show that the swath of snow will be more expansive. Just something to take note of when looking at ensemble means. I think, eventually, we will see the means start to "shrink" a bit, and if the strength and organization of the storm holds, start to see bands of 6-10 inches. 

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3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Not sure why this has part of the KC metro in the ice/frozen stuff.  The entire column stays below freezing. Then again, I don't have a meteorology degree.

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Someweatherdude, I agree with you. In order to have snow we have to saturation within the dendritic zone (-10 to -20 degrees celsius), check. Then we need to look to see if there is an elevated warm layer, which there is and it's quite steep, but since the surface temps are cold enough (at this exact point in time), the layer remains under 32. If anything, this could be a snow and sleet mix, but I would think mostly snow. 

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This really has been a great day for trends towards a snowier solution in KC. The overall mean for snow from GEFS has jumped to 4 from being maybe an inch a few runs ago. Still, a large spread, but the key thing is, one of these solutions will actually probably be correct-- and this is coming from a numerical model that is predicting the future. 

To some degree, we want to see a big spread this far out because we want what actual happens to be within it. We want at least one of the members to be correct. Now, that the models are telling us they are beginning to figure it out, forecasters can start throwing out words like "snowstorm" and maybe even "major snowstorm" by tomorrow. 

 

Jack 

Screen Shot 2021-12-28 at 7.56.52 PM.png

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5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I noticed that in MBY (Johnson County, KS), the ICON has us in the rain at the very outset even though we're north of the 540 line with a ground temp of 17 degrees.  Whatever though.  I'll gladly take 5-8 inches. 

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The ICON doesn't show frz rain and sleet, it shows it as rain so that's most likely what it's indicating.

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Big jump south from the Canadian tonight.  The big upper low in Canada keeps it suppressed.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 00z UK's upper flow looks real good over the Rockies (better than the GFS/GDPS), but when the energy ejects into the midwest it runs into the confluent flow coming out of Canada and veers eastward.  Iowans need the suppressive Canadian energy to relax a bit.

 

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z UK's upper flow looks real good over the Rockies (better than the GFS/GDPS), but when the energy ejects into the midwest it runs into the confluent flow coming out of Canada and veers eastward.  Iowans need the suppressive Canadian energy to relax a bit.

 

Hawkeye, can you show a map portraying the features you talking about here. 

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55 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's never easy for KC.  Are you getting a better feel for this storm tonight?

I am. I think tonights GFS and GEFS put things a bit in perspective for me tonight. It didn't trend super weak or anything, but with the data from the ensembles, I don't think this will turn into something like 10 inches for Kansas City. It's not a big enough storm and its moving too quickly. Logistically, we would need to see 8 hours of snow minimum to see anything over 10 inches. This is looking like 5-7 hour window of snow at best. N Missouri, to me, is the bullseye right now. KC metro 1-4 inches. 

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22 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Hawkeye, can you show a map portraying the features you talking about here. 

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A few encouraging trends I'm seeing among the models, but especially the GEFS/EPS 500mb upstream trends that show more of a ridge building on the west coast that is allowing the energy to phase a bit better each cycle.  See both the EPS/GEFS trends below..

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Here is the 0z Euro Kuchera with a different look...

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Locally speaking, the NNE Flow off LM with True Arctic Origin Air is becoming an added bonus for us in NE IL and SE WI.  The flow appears to be more northerly rather than easterly which bodes well for Chitown and NW burbs.  Final thought, I like how both the 0z UKIE/EURO and even the ICON are showing the secondary "kicker"  phasing better with the main 500mb Vorticity over the Baja/4 corners region.  The models are struggling as to how much these energies hold together and less separation occurs.  We are getting into that crucial period inside 3 days and overall I like what I'm seeing for MBY.

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0z GEFS trends that I mentioned are indicating a better phasing system as it rides up the OHV...LRC for the win???

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0z EPS a little farther NW with the snow mean....something in the middle between the GEFS and EPS would put a lot of smiles on the snow starved faces.  That bullseye in S IA includes about 1" with the wave later tonight.  Given the fact that this system will mainly be a higher ratio snow, it is conceivable that many will see in excess of 15:1 ratio's, esp towards the later half of the storm wherever the defo band sets up shop.

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I'm digging that LEHS signal off of LM into NE IL/SE WI....

 

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At this point the euro is the furthest north. But it has good support from the majority of its ensemble members. The euros track would be ideal for east central iowa, so I’m hoping the other models fall into line. But I have to say I’m worried we’ll see a south shift on subsequent runs. 

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

06z GFS likes KC peeps and @Clinton...

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It keeps the precip going for over 12 hrs.  Sleet could be a problem for mby, a lot of models have it cutting into my totals.  I just need the cold air to be a little bit deeper, get that snow about 20 miles further south and I have a warning level event.

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27 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Our office is betting on the Euro currently.  Which would mean more snow for our area.  But they tend to be wrong a lot.  

I'll never forget the back-to-back years (I think, maybe there was a year in between) where we were in Blizzard warnings and all we got was rain. I don't think we have ever had a Blizzard warning actually verify in the last 20 years.

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It's not the biggest storm ever, because the heavy burst of snow passes through quickly, but it's nice to see the Euro holding with a farther north track through Iowa.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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