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New Year's Day Storm


bud2380
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The 12z NAM took a big jump north, much closer to the Euro.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The NAM is a perfect path for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.  Would love to see this come true.  Also the NAM as mentioned by Hawkeye, jumped north in line with the Euro, it also sped up the storm a lot.  Previous runs it was much slower.

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

I must admit we look to be sitting  pretty here 😉!  We seem to be the sweet spot or near it every run.  We are up to 115 accounts and 55 are commercial. So gonna be a busy weekend here!

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15 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

If the GFS, NAM, Icon and Canadian all cave to the Euro, I will vomit (no offense to the Iowa peeps).  KC doesn't get a lot of love from the snow gods even in a normal year.  And Iowa had it's year last year. 

No offense taken but if you have a snow plowing business in Kansas City then you might wanna move north but if you have a snow plow business in Iowa it’s been along time since the last paycheck. Still plenty of time for kc peeps! Besides you have the Chiefs to cheer on.

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12z GFS is back north, although not as far as the NAM... a middle ground.

image.thumb.png.4bbcefc0fd5df9d30c726060eb730a49.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS has a high temp of 10º here Saturday.  Combined with snow and strong wind, it will be very cold.  I'll certainly have to break out the hand warmers to insert in my gloves.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Canadian shows a flatter western trough, so the storm ejects south and weak.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GEFS developing a bullseye.  Ensembles look good for KC

1641146400-YBW1oyQI4j4.png

1641146400-732dJvI62nY.png

Lets go! We're about 60 -72 hours out. We'll see how this thing trends. 

The Canadian model just flipped out and said, what storm. Totally different run from the 0z run last night. The GFS looks great for a lot of folks. GFS has been pretty consistent, has it not??

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12z UK - the center of the snow band is the same as 00z, but it's a bit weaker and the edges have shrunk inward this run.

image.thumb.png.106ad1301b0dd54521f7cefcb9b467d9.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Lets go! We're about 60 -72 hours out. We'll see how this thing trends. 

The Canadian model just flipped out and said, what storm. Totally different run from the 0z run last night. The GFS looks great for a lot of folks. GFS has been pretty consistent, has it not??

It has but it drops 7hrs of sleet in mby.  30 miles on that model is the difference between sleet and warning level snow.

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2 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

12z ECMWF a tad slower at the surface compared to the 00z but juices up snowfall in western and central Nebraska a little more.

Side note, pretty bizarre how the Kuchera numbers coming out are almost 2x the 10:1 numbers (at least on WeatherBell)

Never mind, I see surface temps are forecasted to be just a hair above zero in the OMA/LNK area, hence the wild numbers...

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At the point in forecasting this storm, we have nearly all the resources (besides CAMS) that we need to regards to modeling data to begin forecasting with more accuracy. After looking at the trends in the GEFS and EURO means in addition to the National Blend of models, to me it seems that the EURO is more of the outlier at this point in time. The NBM has continually been upping snow totals from south of the KC metro, to northern Missouri. The GEFS seems to be telling us it thinks the bullseye will northern Missouri, while the EURO mean is telling us its in southern Nebraska and Southern Iowa. We can't try to outsmart the models and the data. We have to work with it. 

These 10:1 snow total maps are also going to be deceiving because especially for areas north of Kansas City into northern Missouri, snow ratios will start 10-12:1 and may finish close to 17-18:1. It's obvious with these QPF outputs that GEFS likes a wetter and more southerly track and the EURO a more northerly and weaker track. In the next 24 hours we will (hopefully) see these converge. It's getting to be crunch time. Here we go! 

 

Screen Shot 2021-12-29 at 1.29.32 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-29 at 1.29.53 PM.png

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Looking good per GRR.  


- New Years Day Winter Storm

Travel impacts are expected over the weekend, especially from
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, as a winter storm with
several inches of snow is becoming more likely. The ECMWF has been
fairly consistent the past couple days in showing a stripe of
heavy snow across our forecast area and the GFS trended that way
yesterday and continues today, so confidence is increasing. The
trend has also been for a colder storm, with even our southeast
forecast area getting all or mostly all snow. The 12Z GFS model
sounding at AZO and JXN show all snow by the time the steadier
precip arrives during the late morning on Saturday.

The synoptic set up is interesting in that we are poised to get
heavy snow without a deepening or even well-defined surface low.
Indeed, the surface low does not begin to intensify until it is
well past our longitude and the upper trough goes negative tilt.
The main driver here is strong mid-level frontogenetic forcing
which results from strongly confluent flow ahead of the advancing
positively-tilted longwave trough. The confluence strengthens the
baroclinic zone between SE CONUS ridging and the upper trough.
Deep Gulf moisture is also available in this flow regime.

A 1028mb surface high of arctic origin is centered over the
Northern Plains with sfc ridging extending eastward across
southern Canada feeding cold air at the surface on northeast low
level winds, which will increase snow ratios to 10 to 1 or higher
during this event, unlike the "warm snows" we have seen so far. At
this point it looks like 4 to 8 inches across much of southern
Lower Michigan but mesoscale banding that persists/pivots over
the same could result in locally higher amounts.
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