New Year's Day Storm

[snowstorm83]

EPS has ticked south and is a tad weaker. Could go either way for Omaha/Lincoln at this point depending where models decide to shift tomorrow. 

[Minny_Weather]

Hi guys

[clintbeed1993]

Might be the first snowstorm to target my new place in St Joseph, Missouri! Most models have me in the jackzone. Not a super common occurence down here despite being only a couple hours south of interstate 80

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looks like this is going in between Omaha and KC. I'm calling between 2-3" here in Omaha.

[bud2380]

DVN has issued winter storm watches for along and south of highway 30 roughly 

[bud2380]

DVN going very conservative on snow totals. The watch says 4-7” but the point forecast is only 3-5”. I haven’t seen a model show that little around here yet. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Shocking! WSW issued for one county south of Omaha. 4-6" forecast for the watch.

[bud2380]

6z GFS came north just slightly. QPF a little less overall.  

[Clinton]

My first Winter Storm Watch of the year.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Widespread wintry precipitation is expected across the
  region. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches and ice
  accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds
  could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri. Highest snowfall totals likely along and north of a
  St. Joseph to Chillicothe to Kirksville line. Greatest ice
  accumulations likely along a Butler to Sedalia to Boonville
  line. Snowfall totals across the KC metro look to range from 3
  to 6 inches.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. Patchy blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very cold temperatures and wind chills
  Saturday and Saturday night will impact vulnerable populations
  as well as make travel more dangerous in the event that you
  become stranded in your vehicle.

 

[Clinton]

Current thinking from the KC office.  Still to much ice for mby for my liking.

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, Clinton said:

My first Winter Storm Watch of the year.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Widespread wintry precipitation is expected across the
  region. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches and ice
  accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds
  could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri. Highest snowfall totals likely along and north of a
  St. Joseph to Chillicothe to Kirksville line. Greatest ice
  accumulations likely along a Butler to Sedalia to Boonville
  line. Snowfall totals across the KC metro look to range from 3
  to 6 inches.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. Patchy blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very cold temperatures and wind chills
  Saturday and Saturday night will impact vulnerable populations
  as well as make travel more dangerous in the event that you
  become stranded in your vehicle.

 

Congrats bud!  Your south shift came into fruition...how much Ice/Snow is expected for YBY?

[Clinton]

6z GEFS

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Congrats bud!  Your south shift came into fruition...how much Ice/Snow is expected for YBY?

.1 to .25 on the ice and most models have me getting 1-4 inches of snow.  I still would like a 40 mile shift south, the 0z GFS had me around 6-7 inches.  I will except anything that coats the ground this Winter.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

.1 to .25 on the ice and most models have me getting 1-4 inches of snow.  I still would like a 40 mile shift south, the 0z GFS had me around 6-7 inches.  I will except anything that coats the ground this Winter.

Ya, maybe the dense arctic air will press it farther south...the trend among the ensembles appears to be heading that way...I don't like how the secondary energy disconnects on the Euro...hopefully it can correct it in the coming day or so.

[Tom]

0z EPS members showing it really gets going around dinner time New Year's Day for N IL...if the timing holds, the snow should begin to fall around Noon.  Gotta say, I'm getting a bit tickled with excitement and the fact that this storm is hitting on a holiday weekend and during the daytime is an added bonus.  Another added bonus is I'm seeing the models picking up on a Lake Plume developing out ahead of the main event.  In a similar fashion, the Blitz of '99 started out the same way iirc.  This system is a much different set up but the timing on New Year's makes this all the more enjoyable.  

 

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z EPS members showing it really gets going around dinner time New Year's Day for N IL...if the timing holds, the snow should begin to fall around Noon.  Gotta say, I'm getting a bit tickled with excitement and the fact that this storm is hitting on a holiday weekend and during the daytime is an added bonus.  Another added bonus is I'm seeing the models picking up on a Lake Plume developing out ahead of the main event.  In a similar fashion, the Blitz of '99 started out the same way iirc.  This system is a much different set up but the timing on New Year's makes this all the more enjoyable.  

 

All models show Chicago getting a good snow, you look to be in a good spot.  Possible warning level event?

[Tom]

06z Euro...

 

 

Pretty much every model is showing somewhere around .70" qpf for Chicago and adjacent counties. The Lehs/LES potential for Chicago is looking solid at this range.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

All models show Chicago getting a good snow, you look to be in a good spot.  Possible warning level event?

This should easily be a warning snow for all of N IL...I wouldn't be surprised if I see some strong wording for lakeshore counties with the wind potential.  Near whiteout conditions???  The Euro is showing max wind gusts approaching 35-45 mph.

 

[Tom]

Time to step away for a couple hours for some kitchen duty as I will be cooking up a big pot of chicken soup...lets see what trends transpire today...

 

[GDR]

You got to believe that the artic air will blast this south hopefully not to far south but it’s jogged a lot the last couple of runs

[tStacsh]

yikes it went south and much weaker for snowfall here.  Oh well 3-4" of colder fluffy stuff is what I figured and looks like that's what I'll get.  Hopefully it scoots about 50 miles north of where it's projected, but the trend is certainly south. 

 

I will say Radar returns always seem to go a few miles north of any model projections.  Every time I'm in the sweet spot right before an event it ends up north of here.  

[NH4NU]

I’m all in with Jim here. Best practice has always been to scrap models this close to event onset. 

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, NH4NU said:

I’m all in with Jim here. Best practice has always been to scrap models this close to event onset. 

So if he doesn’t use models. What is he using to make this forecast?

[bud2380]

Guess which model shifted way north? If you said 12z NAM you’re a winner. 

[bud2380]

[NH4NU]

21 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

So if he doesn’t use models. What is he using to make this forecast?

I recommend following his Facebook page, he has multiple videos on this question. He’s an old school guy (before reliance on weather models). He came up with “Barbs Rule” (who is his wife haha) many years ago which ultimately says 3 days prior to event, step away from models and begin monitoring things like surface track and trends, checking out different NWS agencies where the storm is currently located for their local observations, etc. After 7 consecutive EURO runs followed by 12z GFS coming more in line with it yesterday afternoon (72 hours out) no more models. He even predicted yesterdays evening runs would shift their track. 

Has this method failed over the years? Yes. But I’ve followed him for 15 years now and he wins more times than not. 
 

You can use the updated 12z NAM as an example of this method. 

[FV-Mike]

Wording from LOT should make Chi folks get a little excited. 

The big picture, as has been detailed the past few days, offers
some classic components of a winter storm synoptic patterns for
the area. This includes a surface low tracking near or north of
the Ohio River while an expansive and strong surface high is
present over the Plains. Subtle variance in key mass fields aloft
will serve to modulate the pattern in ways that will lead to
additional refinement. What there is increasingly high confidence
in is that a sizable portion of the CWA, including the Chicago
metro) resides in the "threat zone" for 6"+ accumulations. This is
due to: plentiful available moisture in the developing TROWAL
(trough of warm air aloft); good dynamics (favorable jet forcing
and strong PVA); and likelihood of mesoscale banding from
frontogenesis due to sharp baroclinic zone over the area,
augmented by presence of steep upper level lapse rates (neutral to
weak stability favorable for enhancement of precip rates in the
banding, such as occurred over Chicago`s northwest suburbs
Wednesday evening).

 

[jcwxguy]

3km nam

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

NAM shifted so far north I went from being on the northern edge to the southern edge of the heavier band. Now the heaviest snow falls north of highway 30 (on the 3K NAM that is). 

[bud2380]

HRRR also much quicker and on the north side of solutions. Has snow falling in eastern iowa before sunrise Saturday when the model run ends. 

[MIKEKC]

NAM!!! What a shift! Has it raining in Chicago  and SE Michigan now.

 

All ice in KC...

[mlgamer]

OK, so we've reached the point in the process where things begin to fall apart and right on cue it's started. Heavy snow being replaced by rain, freezing rain, whatever for MBY. Pretty comical actually.

 

[bud2380]

I still wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM at this juncture without support from other models. The NAM likes to do NAM things. Let’s see what the GFS and Euro show. 

[MIKEKC]

FV3 Hi-Res: Has a very snowy solution for KC and Topeka. Totally different from the NAM as far as snow totals go

[MIKEKC]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I still wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM at this juncture without support from other models. The NAM likes to do NAM things. Let’s see what the GFS and Euro show. 

Agreed! Just last nights run (0z) it had KC getting a record breaking snow. Now, Ice and barely any snow. Still has a winterstorm for KC. 

[jcwxguy]

Fwiw, icon is North

[Hawkeye]

26 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

FV3 Hi-Res: Has a very snowy solution for KC and Topeka. Totally different from the NAM as far as snow totals go

FV3 is in line with the overnight model consensus.  I expect the global models will be as well.

[mlgamer]

The morning trend is north. Heck, there is still time to turn this into a Dakotas Special...lol

[Hawkeye]

The 12z RDPS inched back south.