New Year's Day Storm

[bud2380]

GFS seems to have narrowed the precip shield as opposed to a north or a south shift. The end result is less snow for most but it definitely didn’t shift the heavy bands further north like the NAM. 

[Hawkeye]

It figures the GFS wouldn't move an inch, not that I expected it to.  The NWS offices will likely consider the NAM an easy throw-away.

[tStacsh]

Yeah that run stunk for me on the GFS.  

[The Snowman]

Absolutely brutal cutoff on the northern edge of this storm for us Nebraska folks.

[Clinton]

46 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The morning trend is north. Heck, there is still time to turn this into a Dakotas Special...lol

GFS looks good I think this storm is all good for KC. The NAM gave KC 1.5in of sleet with no change over, that seems suspicious. 

[The Snowman]

Feels like straw-grasping time for Omaha getting above 6" - in that spirit, 12z GEFS mean QPF did tick higher locally, with that wetter change evident into southeast Nebraska and Kansas.

[Clinton]

12z GEFS mean is maybe a little wetter. Ensembles are beginning to lock in.

[East Dubzz]

I see the NWS is predicting 2-3" here. Going to guess we don't end up getting that. Never feel very confident on the northern edge cutoff. 

[bud2380]

Canadian with 11” for iowa city. Yes please. 

[GDR]

Wasn’t the Canadian way south last run or two

[james1976]

GFS op 0" for me and NAM with 10". What could go wrong?

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

GFS op 0" for me and NAM with 10". What could go wrong?

A lot.

[bud2380]

UK with 6.8" at 10:1 for Iowa City.  With a relatively conservative 14:1 ratio instead that's 9.5"

 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and UK are also zero vs several inches for areas like Ames and Waterloo.

[bud2380]

The UK is just about perfect for my area.  Definitely the best run from any model so far in the past day.  Hopefully the Euro follows suit.  

[Minny_Weather]

Lmao, poor Sioux City has been getting the shaft every winter since they scored big in 2017-18.

[james1976]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS and UK are also zero vs several inches for areas like Ames and Waterloo.

Yeah thats my concern 

[Jack_GradStudent]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

HRRR also much quicker and on the north side of solutions. Has snow falling in eastern iowa before sunrise Saturday when the model run ends. 

I would be very careful with looking the the CAMs this far in advance from the beginning of the storm.. HRRR tends to be good about 6-8 hours max before the storm. 

[chances14]

looks like our 2 year winter storm watch futility streak is coming to an end

[bud2380]

As the Euro begins, here's the last 2 runs for comparison.

 

6z

 

00z - both show exactly 7.7" for Iowa City

[bud2380]

Euro coming in weaker and lower qpf.  

[Jayhawker85]

18 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

As the Euro begins, here's the last 2 runs for comparison.

 

6z

 

00z - both show exactly 7.7" for Iowa City

From this map the Euro is trending south 

[bud2380]

Track stayed almost identical, but weakened considerably.

 

[bud2380]

About 1-4" less generally in most areas.  Iowa City went from 7.7" each of the last 2 runs to 4.7".  That's disappointing as we get near the storm to see it weakening that considerably.  

[Hawkeye]

It sucks to end the morning model suite with a dog Euro run.

[bud2380]

Can only hope the euro trends back stronger. It had been rock steady too. 

[GDR]

Looks like a solid 4-8 event 

[james1976]

Ride that 12z NAM!

[Bellona]

39 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Ride that 12z NAM!

I am I am!! Lol. Honestly, I don't know what to think right now. My forecast is 50% chance snow...accumulation from 0-10 inches lol

[bud2380]

Who’s ready for another shift south on the NAM? 

[The Snowman]

NWS Omaha extends the Winter Storm Watch to cover Douglas & Sarpy counties; watch text indicates 2-5" so probably an impact-based watch instead of an amounts-based watch.

[GDR]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Who’s ready for another shift south on the NAM? 

Watch it be bigly!

[The Snowman]

Updated NWS Omaha graphic

[tStacsh]

Can't complain that this storm turned into a mini.  I will still take 3" of powder.  Just couldn't  slow down enough.  stretched out and weakening  for SMI.  Our weather office said last night don't trust the lollipop totals models are showing.  

[bud2380]

NAM. South. 

[ToastedRavs]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NAM. South. 

I'd say sharper cutoff.  Still 6 inches or more in Des Moines and IC. Half of Dallas county (just west of Des Moines)gets warning snows. Other half, barely advisory. Lol

[bud2380]

11” IMBY. Hard to believe anything the NAM puts out with its constantly changing solutions. But that would be a best case scenario here. 

[bud2380]

3k NAM would be great by me.

 

[GDR]

Nam looks great