Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Alright, alright, alright...as we count down the days of closing out the year, is there more to look forward to for snow enthusiasts??? In our busy lives during this time of year, it appears Mother Nature will also keep us winter wx fans busy tracking wintry systems (finally)...what lies ahead as we open up the doors to a New Year '22 there is a very favorable pattern setting up shop across the Central Sub. There are several LR leading indicators which favor the continuation of an active STJ, Blocking, a relaxing PNA (slightly -) and more importantly, our seasons real push of Arctic Air that will press SE. In the 1-2 week period, specifically my target period of JAN 7th-11th is trending towards one to have a watchful eye that should produce a wave train of systems cutting right through the MW. My original idea of a powerhouse during this aforementioned calendar period has some ensemble support as we creep closer. The GL's Glacier has been in tact and will continue to grow...in fact, the LR GEFS are expanding it S/SE over much of the central ag belt region. Here is the 0z GEFS.... 0z GEPS... The LR CFSv2 is eye candy for many...let's see how many members on here will be "sharing in the wealth" as #RealWinter makes a welcomed heart-felt, heartland return....Let's Discuss.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Boy, these are quite the + trends per the CFSv2...the model is def seeing a lot of high lat blocking in its more recent run....Dr. Cohens model is suggesting a SSW event for later in the month... On the subject of the Strat, the Euro/GFS are on the same page and indicating a Siberian Warming event by Jan 4th/5th... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Holy smokes, I just had a chance to review the data amongst the models and they are all trending in a positive light for the majority of our Sub as we open up JAN. Both the EPS/GEFS are showing an active wave train setting up shop over the MW/GL's/OHV. This has a chance to become a hellova memorable flip to #realwinter around these parts. 0z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: Holy smokes, I just had a chance to review the data amongst the models and they are all trending in a positive light for the majority of our Sub as we open up JAN. Both the EPS/GEFS are showing an active wave train setting up shop over the MW/GL's/OHV. This has a chance to become a hellova memorable flip to #realwinter around these parts. 0z GEFS... Warm lakes. Michigan would do very well if this pattern verifies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Rather than start a new thread, I'll just post this here. Ryan Maue mentioned the development of a new model system in a tweet. Rapid Refresh Forecast System GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model. Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2023 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on: Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics. 5 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 GFS gets me up to 20 one day out of the next 16. Gets me above zero 7 out of the next 16, with 4 of those being after hr 240. I've already had more of a winter than whatever last year was. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Hey all. I'm still here. Ready for this blitz to kick off. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Who's ready for tracking our next system??? The Jan 5th-7th period is looking intriguing for a lot of the region N of I-80 based on current guidance. I'll prob start a thread later this afternoon unless someone else does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Both the GFS/GGEM are showing a significant stripe of snow somewhere across the MW and into the Lower Lakes region for the 5th-7th system(s). 12z Canadien... 12z GFS... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 The Euro has this system as well. It looks to favor areas south of me again. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 What's better than tracking not 1, but 2 winter storms in less than a week?? Today's 12z suite of models are all suggesting some sort of "Lower Lakes" cutter in the works... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 @OttumwaSnomowbusiness is going to be busy! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 The first hours of a new year in my new state, t'storms! 2 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 hours ago, Clinton said: @OttumwaSnomowbusiness is going to be busy! Were are locked and loaded! If this storm misses Ottumwa Iowa will be a shocking bust! 5 days of model runs time after time hit me hard! 4 or 5 inches is probably more profitable but it appears to a great start to January. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year..... Of course, with a new year comes a new month thus it is time to take a look at what we can expect in a average January. At Grand Rapids In January we start the month out with 9 hours and 5 minutes of daylight and by the end of the month we are at 9 hours and 55 minutes so we will gain almost a hour of daylight. At Grand Rapids the new 30 year average mean for January is 24.8° The daily H/L starts out at 32.4/21.0 on the first. Bottoms out at 30.4/17.4 between the 21st and 25th and ends the month at 30.7/17.4. The record highest reading for any January is 66 recorded on January 25th 1950 the coldest low was -22 on January 19th 1994.The lowest maximum for Grand Rapids is -3 on January 15th 1972 the low the next morning was -16. In 1992 to go along with that record low of -22 on the 19th the highs were only 0° on the 18th and -2 on the 19th In 1990 the coldest it got all month was just 19 that happened 3 times that month. In 2006 the coldest it got was 16. The wettest January at GR was in 2005 when 4.67” of rain and melted snow fell. Of that 27.8” was snow. The driest January at GR was in 1956 with just 0.29” of rain and melted snow. That month just 5.3” of snow fell. The top 5 warmest January’s at Grand Rapids are 1. 1932 (34.4) 2. 1933 (34.0) 3. 2006 (33.2) 4. 1990 (32.0) 5. 2020 31.3. The coldest top 5 are 1. 1912 (11.8) 2. 1918 (12.5) 3. 12.7 (1977) 4. 1994 (14.5) 5 1963 (15.8) In the snow fall department, the current 30-year average is 22.6” the most snow on the ground in January is 27” in 1978. The top 5 snowiest Januarys are 1. 1999 (46.8) 2. 1997 (45.5”) 3. 1979 (45.5) 4. 1918 (45.0) 5. 2004 (44.2”) The top 5 least snowy are 1. 1933 (0.8”) 2. 1921 (2.1”) 3. 1934 (1.4”) 4. 1932 (1.4) 5. 1944 (3.7”) in more recent times only 4.1” fell in January 2001 even thought that winter Grand Rapids had 98.1” of total snow fall. Last year 9.9” of snow fell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year everyone! May all of our dreams come true in 2022. Of course, this new year is brought in by cold temps here. I just did the boiling water thing cuz I wanted to try it out. It is very cool. -23*F. 5 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year. Enjoy the cold. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Well, models are struggling with the secondary wave riding along the boundary setting up along the southern periphery of the trough. Needless to say, I think the S MW is in a good spot with this one and prob up thru the OHV. 0z EPS/GEFS are suggesting a southerly push through NE/KS/N MO into the OHV. Boy, the models are really coming into agreement for some biter cold to arrive during Week 2...I'm sure we will be hearing/seeing the return of the almighty Polar Vortex in '22 fashion! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year! This post is also in the December topic December 2021 was a top ten as one of the warmest on record. The mean of 34.5 at Grand Rapids was a departure of +4.1. That is good for the 7th over all warmest Decembers on record. The high for the month was 63 on the 16th The low for the month was 15 on the 8th. There was a total of 2.23" of pricip of that 10.1" was snow that snow fall total is -10.7" below average. The most snow on the ground was 4". At Muskegon and Lansing December 2021 was the 4th warmest at both locations the mean at Muskegon was 36.5 and at Lansing it was 36.0. For the year 2021 was the 8th warmest on record and at Lansing and Muskegon it was the 4th warmest on record. We will have to see how January 2022 plays out. There are some ingredients for a good amount of snow at the start. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: Boy, the models are really coming into agreement for some biter cold to arrive during Week 2...I'm sure we will be hearing/seeing the return of the almighty Polar Vortex in '22 fashion! There are some ingredients for a lot of lake effect snow for the 1st half of January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 No lightning yet, but it's been pouring! In fact right now there is both rain AND fog. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Yeah big oof lol Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year!!! Bring on the snow and cold for all! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Models aren't showing much for snow, after today, through mid January... mostly just cold and dry. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Models seem to be focusing in on the lead northern stream energy and backing off the second piece over the past 24 hours. Might have to just fire up a thread for the northern piece instead and it appears to be targeting the N GL's and igniting a long lasting LES event for MI peeps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 The first Tornado Watches for 2022 in the nation include part of Kentucky. 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Torrential downpour. Heaviest so far. Stronger activity approaching from central KY. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 -33f for me this morning. At least it's sunny as can be and relatively calm. Reminds me of 2013-14 new years and how cold that winter was, 3 straight days of -20 highs that week. That was a week before the first instance of "Polar Vortex" in the mainstream media. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 It's currently 17 degrees with light snow falling, 43 degrees colder than this time yesterday. GFS and Euro bring down another shot of artic air later next week and a posable weenie band of snow in my area Thursday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 The MJO looks to do a brief backtrack to phase 7 then move back into phase 8. There is a growing number of more amplified members. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 The low this morning in Grand Forks, ND was -37F! Only 6F off from the all time low of -43F! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 1, 2022 Report Share Posted January 1, 2022 Winter has arrived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Happy New Year Everyone! Man, just saw the potential storm for mid next week and if that were to ever verify, SMI will be inundated w/ snow. For now, models are showing this storm being too far east for a near miss, but tbh, there will be a lot of shifting back n forth within each run. Still days away. Fun to track something at least. Gotta admit, it is not too often you get to track 2 storms at once (within a week timeframe), so enjoy. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 12/31/2021 at 1:42 PM, Tom said: What's better than tracking not 1, but 2 winter storms in less than a week?? Today's 12z suite of models are all suggesting some sort of "Lower Lakes" cutter in the works... Now, this is a dream snowstorm.....too bad is days away. It will definitely be fun tracking it, whether its a miss or not. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Already down to -29F in Grand Forks! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 First flurries of the season flittering by my light outside. Sitting inside here in the quiet and staying warm. Couldn't have started winter off on a better day. Happy 2022 everyone! Here's to a truly new and great era to come. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Heading for 20* tonight. No flurries, just cold northwest wind. 53* drop Fire in the fireplace, does that count? 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 After getting about 7" of snow today, I would think that we are now into a more active weather pattern, but it looks like it could be awhile before we see any snow around here. Most models are pretty quiet for the next 2 weeks. I sure hope we can get some more winter storms around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Fired up a thread for the 2 systems showing up for the middle part of the week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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