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January 2022 Observations & Discussion


Tom

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Alright, alright, alright...as we count down the days of closing out the year, is there more to look forward to for snow enthusiasts???  In our busy lives during this time of year, it appears Mother Nature will also keep us winter wx fans busy tracking wintry systems (finally)...what lies ahead as we open up the doors to a New Year '22 there is a very favorable pattern setting up shop across the Central Sub.  There are several LR leading indicators which favor the continuation of an active STJ, Blocking, a relaxing PNA (slightly -) and more importantly, our seasons real push of Arctic Air that will press SE. 

In the 1-2 week period, specifically my target period of JAN 7th-11th is trending towards one to have a watchful eye that should produce a wave train of systems cutting right through the MW.   My original idea of a powerhouse during this aforementioned calendar period has some ensemble support as we creep closer.  The GL's Glacier has been in tact and will continue to grow...in fact, the LR GEFS are expanding it S/SE over much of the central ag belt region.

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Here is the 0z GEFS....

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0z GEPS...

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The LR CFSv2 is eye candy for many...let's see how many members on here will be "sharing in the wealth" as #RealWinter makes a welcomed heart-felt, heartland return....Let's Discuss....

 

 

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Boy, these are quite the + trends per the CFSv2...the model is def seeing a lot of high lat blocking in its more recent run....Dr. Cohens model is suggesting a SSW event for later in the month...

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On the subject of the Strat, the Euro/GFS are on the same page and indicating a Siberian Warming event by Jan 4th/5th...

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Holy smokes, I just had a chance to review the data amongst the models and they are all trending in a positive light for the majority of our Sub as we open up JAN.  Both the EPS/GEFS are showing an active wave train setting up shop over the MW/GL's/OHV.  This has a chance to become a hellova memorable flip to #realwinter around these parts.

0z GEFS...

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Holy smokes, I just had a chance to review the data amongst the models and they are all trending in a positive light for the majority of our Sub as we open up JAN.  Both the EPS/GEFS are showing an active wave train setting up shop over the MW/GL's/OHV.  This has a chance to become a hellova memorable flip to #realwinter around these parts.

0z GEFS...

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Warm lakes.  Michigan would do very well if this pattern verifies.  

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Rather than start a new thread, I'll just post this here.  Ryan Maue mentioned the development of a new model system in a tweet.

Rapid Refresh Forecast System

GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model.

Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2023 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on:

  • Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation
  • Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics.
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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The first hours of a new year in my new state, t'storms! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Happy New Year.....

Of course, with a new year comes a new month thus it is time to take a look at what we can expect in a average January. At Grand Rapids In January we start the month out with 9 hours and 5 minutes of daylight and by the end of the month we are at 9 hours and 55 minutes so we will gain almost a hour of daylight.  At Grand Rapids the new 30 year average mean for January is 24.8° The daily H/L starts out at 32.4/21.0 on the first.  Bottoms out at 30.4/17.4 between the 21st and 25th and ends the month at 30.7/17.4. The record highest reading for any January is 66 recorded on January 25th 1950 the coldest low was -22 on January 19th 1994.The lowest maximum for Grand Rapids is -3 on January 15th 1972 the low the next morning was -16. In 1992 to go along with that record low of -22 on the 19th the highs were only 0° on the 18th and -2 on the 19th  In 1990 the coldest it got all month was just 19 that happened 3 times that month. In 2006 the coldest it got was 16. The wettest January at GR was in 2005 when 4.67” of rain and melted snow fell. Of that 27.8” was snow. The driest January at GR was in 1956 with just 0.29” of rain and melted snow. That month just 5.3” of snow fell. The top 5 warmest January’s at Grand Rapids are 1. 1932 (34.4) 2. 1933 (34.0) 3. 2006 (33.2) 4. 1990 (32.0) 5. 2020 31.3. The coldest top 5 are 1. 1912 (11.8) 2. 1918 (12.5) 3. 12.7 (1977) 4. 1994 (14.5) 5 1963 (15.8)

In the snow fall department, the current 30-year average is 22.6” the most snow on the ground in January is 27” in 1978. The top 5 snowiest Januarys are 1. 1999 (46.8) 2. 1997 (45.5”) 3. 1979 (45.5) 4. 1918 (45.0) 5. 2004 (44.2”) The top 5 least snowy are 1. 1933 (0.8”) 2. 1921 (2.1”) 3. 1934 (1.4”) 4. 1932 (1.4) 5. 1944 (3.7”) in more recent times only 4.1” fell in January 2001 even thought that winter Grand Rapids had 98.1” of total snow fall. Last year 9.9” of snow fell.

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Well, models are struggling with the secondary wave riding along the boundary setting up along the southern periphery of the trough.  Needless to say, I think the S MW is in a good spot with this one and prob up thru the OHV.  0z EPS/GEFS are suggesting a southerly push through NE/KS/N MO into the OHV.

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Boy, the models are really coming into agreement for some biter cold to arrive during Week 2...I'm sure we will be hearing/seeing the return of the almighty Polar Vortex in '22 fashion!

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Happy New Year!

This post is also in the December topic 
December 2021 was a top ten as one of the warmest on record. The mean of 34.5 at Grand Rapids was a departure of +4.1. That is good for the 7th over all warmest Decembers on record. The high for the month was 63 on the 16th The low for the month was 15 on the 8th. There was a total of 2.23" of pricip of that 10.1" was snow that snow fall total is -10.7" below average. The most snow on the ground was 4". At Muskegon and Lansing December 2021 was the 4th warmest at both locations the mean at Muskegon was 36.5 and at Lansing it was 36.0. For the year 2021 was the 8th warmest on record and at Lansing and Muskegon it was the 4th warmest on record.
We will have to see how January 2022 plays out. There are some  ingredients for a good amount of snow at the start.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Boy, the models are really coming into agreement for some biter cold to arrive during Week 2...I'm sure we will be hearing/seeing the return of the almighty Polar Vortex in '22 fashion!

There are some ingredients for a lot of lake effect snow for the 1st half of January.

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No lightning yet, but it's been pouring! In fact right now there is both rain AND fog. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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🤪

2022-01-01 10_02_43-Window.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Models aren't showing much for snow, after today, through mid January... mostly just cold and dry.

season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models seem to be focusing in on the lead northern stream energy and backing off the second piece over the past 24 hours.  Might have to just fire up a thread for the northern piece instead and it appears to be targeting the N GL's and igniting a long lasting LES event for MI peeps.

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The first Tornado Watches for 2022 in the nation include part of Kentucky. 🌪️

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Torrential downpour. Heaviest so far. Stronger activity approaching from central KY.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Happy New Year Everyone!

Man, just saw the potential storm for mid next week and if that were to ever verify, SMI will be inundated w/ snow. For now, models are showing this storm being too far east for a near miss, but tbh, there will be a lot of shifting back n forth within each run. Still days away. Fun to track something at least. Gotta admit, it is not too often you get to track 2 storms at once (within a week timeframe), so enjoy.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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On 12/31/2021 at 1:42 PM, Tom said:

What's better than tracking not 1, but 2 winter storms in less than a week??  Today's 12z suite of models are all suggesting some sort of "Lower Lakes" cutter in the works...

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Now, this is a dream snowstorm.....too bad is days away. It will definitely be fun tracking it, whether its a miss or not.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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Heading for 20* tonight. No flurries, just cold northwest wind.  53* drop  

Fire in the fireplace, does that count? 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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After getting about 7" of snow today, I would think that we are now into a more active weather pattern, but it looks like it could be awhile before we see any snow around here. Most models are pretty quiet for the next 2 weeks. I sure hope we can get some more winter storms around here.

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