Jump to content
The Weather Forums

January 2022 Observations & Discussion


Tom
 Share

Recommended Posts

Alright, alright, alright...as we count down the days of closing out the year, is there more to look forward to for snow enthusiasts???  In our busy lives during this time of year, it appears Mother Nature will also keep us winter wx fans busy tracking wintry systems (finally)...what lies ahead as we open up the doors to a New Year '22 there is a very favorable pattern setting up shop across the Central Sub.  There are several LR leading indicators which favor the continuation of an active STJ, Blocking, a relaxing PNA (slightly -) and more importantly, our seasons real push of Arctic Air that will press SE. 

In the 1-2 week period, specifically my target period of JAN 7th-11th is trending towards one to have a watchful eye that should produce a wave train of systems cutting right through the MW.   My original idea of a powerhouse during this aforementioned calendar period has some ensemble support as we creep closer.  The GL's Glacier has been in tact and will continue to grow...in fact, the LR GEFS are expanding it S/SE over much of the central ag belt region.

5.png

Here is the 0z GEFS....

1.png

 

0z GEPS...

image.png

 

The LR CFSv2 is eye candy for many...let's see how many members on here will be "sharing in the wealth" as #RealWinter makes a welcomed heart-felt, heartland return....Let's Discuss....

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom pinned this topic

Boy, these are quite the + trends per the CFSv2...the model is def seeing a lot of high lat blocking in its more recent run....Dr. Cohens model is suggesting a SSW event for later in the month...

3.gif

1.gif

 

2.gif

 

On the subject of the Strat, the Euro/GFS are on the same page and indicating a Siberian Warming event by Jan 4th/5th...

image.png

 

6.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Holy smokes, I just had a chance to review the data amongst the models and they are all trending in a positive light for the majority of our Sub as we open up JAN.  Both the EPS/GEFS are showing an active wave train setting up shop over the MW/GL's/OHV.  This has a chance to become a hellova memorable flip to #realwinter around these parts.

0z GEFS...

image.png

 

image.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Holy smokes, I just had a chance to review the data amongst the models and they are all trending in a positive light for the majority of our Sub as we open up JAN.  Both the EPS/GEFS are showing an active wave train setting up shop over the MW/GL's/OHV.  This has a chance to become a hellova memorable flip to #realwinter around these parts.

0z GEFS...

image.png

 

image.png

Warm lakes.  Michigan would do very well if this pattern verifies.  

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rather than start a new thread, I'll just post this here.  Ryan Maue mentioned the development of a new model system in a tweet.

Rapid Refresh Forecast System

GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model.

Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2023 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on:

  • Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation
  • Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics.
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS gets me up to 20 one day out of the next 16. Gets me above zero 7 out of the next 16, with 4 of those being after hr 240.

I've already had more of a winter than whatever last year was.

  • Like 2

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro has this system as well.  It looks to favor areas south of me again.

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first hours of a new year in my new state, t'storms! 

Tab3FileL.png

  • Like 2
  • Storm 2

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy New Year.....

Of course, with a new year comes a new month thus it is time to take a look at what we can expect in a average January. At Grand Rapids In January we start the month out with 9 hours and 5 minutes of daylight and by the end of the month we are at 9 hours and 55 minutes so we will gain almost a hour of daylight.  At Grand Rapids the new 30 year average mean for January is 24.8° The daily H/L starts out at 32.4/21.0 on the first.  Bottoms out at 30.4/17.4 between the 21st and 25th and ends the month at 30.7/17.4. The record highest reading for any January is 66 recorded on January 25th 1950 the coldest low was -22 on January 19th 1994.The lowest maximum for Grand Rapids is -3 on January 15th 1972 the low the next morning was -16. In 1992 to go along with that record low of -22 on the 19th the highs were only 0° on the 18th and -2 on the 19th  In 1990 the coldest it got all month was just 19 that happened 3 times that month. In 2006 the coldest it got was 16. The wettest January at GR was in 2005 when 4.67” of rain and melted snow fell. Of that 27.8” was snow. The driest January at GR was in 1956 with just 0.29” of rain and melted snow. That month just 5.3” of snow fell. The top 5 warmest January’s at Grand Rapids are 1. 1932 (34.4) 2. 1933 (34.0) 3. 2006 (33.2) 4. 1990 (32.0) 5. 2020 31.3. The coldest top 5 are 1. 1912 (11.8) 2. 1918 (12.5) 3. 12.7 (1977) 4. 1994 (14.5) 5 1963 (15.8)

In the snow fall department, the current 30-year average is 22.6” the most snow on the ground in January is 27” in 1978. The top 5 snowiest Januarys are 1. 1999 (46.8) 2. 1997 (45.5”) 3. 1979 (45.5) 4. 1918 (45.0) 5. 2004 (44.2”) The top 5 least snowy are 1. 1933 (0.8”) 2. 1921 (2.1”) 3. 1934 (1.4”) 4. 1932 (1.4) 5. 1944 (3.7”) in more recent times only 4.1” fell in January 2001 even thought that winter Grand Rapids had 98.1” of total snow fall. Last year 9.9” of snow fell.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy New Year everyone! May all of our dreams come true in 2022.

Of course, this new year is brought in by cold temps here. I just did the boiling water thing cuz I wanted to try it out. It is very cool. -23*F.

  • Like 5

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, models are struggling with the secondary wave riding along the boundary setting up along the southern periphery of the trough.  Needless to say, I think the S MW is in a good spot with this one and prob up thru the OHV.  0z EPS/GEFS are suggesting a southerly push through NE/KS/N MO into the OHV.

2.gif

 

Boy, the models are really coming into agreement for some biter cold to arrive during Week 2...I'm sure we will be hearing/seeing the return of the almighty Polar Vortex in '22 fashion!

1.gif

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy New Year!

This post is also in the December topic 
December 2021 was a top ten as one of the warmest on record. The mean of 34.5 at Grand Rapids was a departure of +4.1. That is good for the 7th over all warmest Decembers on record. The high for the month was 63 on the 16th The low for the month was 15 on the 8th. There was a total of 2.23" of pricip of that 10.1" was snow that snow fall total is -10.7" below average. The most snow on the ground was 4". At Muskegon and Lansing December 2021 was the 4th warmest at both locations the mean at Muskegon was 36.5 and at Lansing it was 36.0. For the year 2021 was the 8th warmest on record and at Lansing and Muskegon it was the 4th warmest on record.
We will have to see how January 2022 plays out. There are some  ingredients for a good amount of snow at the start.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Boy, the models are really coming into agreement for some biter cold to arrive during Week 2...I'm sure we will be hearing/seeing the return of the almighty Polar Vortex in '22 fashion!

There are some ingredients for a lot of lake effect snow for the 1st half of January.

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No lightning yet, but it's been pouring! In fact right now there is both rain AND fog. 

KJKL_loop.gif

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models aren't showing much for snow, after today, through mid January... mostly just cold and dry.

season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models seem to be focusing in on the lead northern stream energy and backing off the second piece over the past 24 hours.  Might have to just fire up a thread for the northern piece instead and it appears to be targeting the N GL's and igniting a long lasting LES event for MI peeps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first Tornado Watches for 2022 in the nation include part of Kentucky. 🌪️

ww0003_radar_big.png

  • Storm 1
  • scream 1

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Torrential downpour. Heaviest so far. Stronger activity approaching from central KY.

  • Storm 2

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's currently 17 degrees with light snow falling, 43 degrees colder than this time yesterday.  GFS and Euro bring down another shot of artic air later next week and a posable weenie band of snow in my area Thursday.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy New Year Everyone!

Man, just saw the potential storm for mid next week and if that were to ever verify, SMI will be inundated w/ snow. For now, models are showing this storm being too far east for a near miss, but tbh, there will be a lot of shifting back n forth within each run. Still days away. Fun to track something at least. Gotta admit, it is not too often you get to track 2 storms at once (within a week timeframe), so enjoy.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Snowfall as of today Jan, 2022 is: 13.1"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/31/2021 at 1:42 PM, Tom said:

What's better than tracking not 1, but 2 winter storms in less than a week??  Today's 12z suite of models are all suggesting some sort of "Lower Lakes" cutter in the works...

1.gif

 

1.png

Now, this is a dream snowstorm.....too bad is days away. It will definitely be fun tracking it, whether its a miss or not.

  • Like 2

Snowfall as of today Jan, 2022 is: 13.1"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heading for 20* tonight. No flurries, just cold northwest wind.  53* drop  

Fire in the fireplace, does that count? 

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After getting about 7" of snow today, I would think that we are now into a more active weather pattern, but it looks like it could be awhile before we see any snow around here. Most models are pretty quiet for the next 2 weeks. I sure hope we can get some more winter storms around here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ft Worth bottomed out at a surprising 17-18* degrees depending where you live.  
DFW Airport’s Official temp will be a bit higher no doubt.  We’ll see as figures come in.  
 

I think this took even the Mets by surprise as no one was expecting this.  The mercury simply plunged.  
I know you guys dig cold and snow but this Texas girl must beg to be contrary this morning.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Current temp of 23F w/ an appreciable amount of snowfall in my neck of the woods. Here in Macomb I received 4.2". Detroit Metro got 2.7". It looks awesome outside. Its breezy as well, so the wcf is definitely biting.

  • Like 2

Snowfall as of today Jan, 2022 is: 13.1"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Andie said:

 

Ft Worth bottomed out at a surprising 17-18* degrees depending where you live.  
DFW Airport’s Official temp will be a bit higher no doubt.  We’ll see as figures come in.  
 

I think this took even the Mets by surprise as no one was expecting this.  The mercury simply plunged.  
I know you guys dig cold and snow but this Texas girl must beg to be contrary this morning.

Also this upcoming snow event here has literally just poped up in the last few days.so many worry about 7 day storm events but ofton times its the sort term ones that sneak up on many.Keep warm down in good ol Texas Andie.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think 1.71" rainfall at Ashland Airport since midnight Jan 1. Wet!

Now 43 and overcast. Still no thunder yet at my place. Everyone else had lightning, wind, some kind of storm out of it.

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see a few reports of 4-5" rain and flooding in southern Kentucky. 

  • Like 1

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How about this! A surprise snowstorm outta nowhere headed for the Mid Atlantic. DC is expected to get 6-10inches, Philly and NYC depending how far north the low tracks. So far areas farther north, including Boston..are in the 1-3" range, but that could change.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/hd22-1.jpg?w=632

 

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1

Snowfall as of today Jan, 2022 is: 13.1"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the first time in weeks, there's no t'storms in the forecast on Wunderground's 10-day. 

Maybe winter is finally coming around. 

ezgif.com-gif-maker.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 7.5"
December: 0.1"
January: 7.4"
February: _._"

Snow days: 4 (4.0" Jan 16-17)
Highs <32: 1 (21 Jan 7th)
Min: 7 (Jan 8th)
Max wind: 30mph (Dec 25th)

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Niko said:

How about this! A surprise snowstorm outta nowhere headed for the Mid Atlantic. DC is expected to get 6-10inches, Philly and NYC depending how far north the low tracks. So far areas farther north, including Boston..are in the 1-3" range, but that could change.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/hd22-1.jpg?w=632

 

Memphis under an advisory for 1-2" after tying the monthly record high of 79 yesterday lol

  • lol 2
  • scream 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 2.3" (so far)

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...