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January 2022 Observations & Discussion


Tom

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Ft Worth bottomed out at a surprising 17-18* degrees depending where you live.  
DFW Airport’s Official temp will be a bit higher no doubt.  We’ll see as figures come in.  
 

I think this took even the Mets by surprise as no one was expecting this.  The mercury simply plunged.  
I know you guys dig cold and snow but this Texas girl must beg to be contrary this morning.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Current temp of 23F w/ an appreciable amount of snowfall in my neck of the woods. Here in Macomb I received 4.2". Detroit Metro got 2.7". It looks awesome outside. Its breezy as well, so the wcf is definitely biting.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Andie said:

 

Ft Worth bottomed out at a surprising 17-18* degrees depending where you live.  
DFW Airport’s Official temp will be a bit higher no doubt.  We’ll see as figures come in.  
 

I think this took even the Mets by surprise as no one was expecting this.  The mercury simply plunged.  
I know you guys dig cold and snow but this Texas girl must beg to be contrary this morning.

Also this upcoming snow event here has literally just poped up in the last few days.so many worry about 7 day storm events but ofton times its the sort term ones that sneak up on many.Keep warm down in good ol Texas Andie.

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I think 1.71" rainfall at Ashland Airport since midnight Jan 1. Wet!

Now 43 and overcast. Still no thunder yet at my place. Everyone else had lightning, wind, some kind of storm out of it.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I see a few reports of 4-5" rain and flooding in southern Kentucky. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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How about this! A surprise snowstorm outta nowhere headed for the Mid Atlantic. DC is expected to get 6-10inches, Philly and NYC depending how far north the low tracks. So far areas farther north, including Boston..are in the 1-3" range, but that could change.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/hd22-1.jpg?w=632

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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For the first time in weeks, there's no t'storms in the forecast on Wunderground's 10-day. 

Maybe winter is finally coming around. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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19 minutes ago, Niko said:

How about this! A surprise snowstorm outta nowhere headed for the Mid Atlantic. DC is expected to get 6-10inches, Philly and NYC depending how far north the low tracks. So far areas farther north, including Boston..are in the 1-3" range, but that could change.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/hd22-1.jpg?w=632

 

Memphis under an advisory for 1-2" after tying the monthly record high of 79 yesterday lol

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The snow tonight stops literally just outside of town. Moved from one dome to another.

Tab3FileL (1).png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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TWC:  for the month of January

https://s.w-x.co/primary_WSI_Jan_1229.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Memphis under an advisory for 1-2" after tying the monthly record high of 79 yesterday lol

They also had near 80 on Christmas. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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7 hours ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Also this upcoming snow event here has literally just poped up in the last few days.so many worry about 7 day storm events but ofton times its the sort term ones that sneak up on many.Keep warm down in good ol Texas Andie.

We’ll hit a balmy 23 tonight according to Mets but I’m concerned it will go lower.   

My sprinkler system already is leaking today at a valve.  Service man can’t get here till Tuesday.  We tried to insulate more so it would not get worse.  Second year in a row to make us replace a valve system.   
I'm going to come up with a better system of insulation.  

This stinks and I think these deep winters are here for a good long while.  
Anyone have an opinion on the future of deep cold down here?  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Texas toast

After this freeze, I’ll take take it baby!!!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Where’s that?  
Ft Worth hit 17* and had a wind chill of 5*!  🤠
 

😂. Found it.   
It’s on the Rio across from Ciudad Nuevo Laredo, Mexico!!!!  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Falcon Lake, Texas hit 99°F today and if this temperature is verified it will be the hottest January temperature in US history.

wut

That area had a cold front pass through at 5am this morning, and is currently under freeze watch. The high in the surrounding cities (Laredo and McAllen) were in the mid-70s.

Laredo did amazingly hit 94 yesterday. Maybe you meant yesterday.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I ventured out on my deck earlier for a couple minutes to "soak" in that cold air and it has quite the bite to it.  Currently +9F with clear skies and a nice snow cover.  Hopefully we can add a fresh coating over the next few days.  

After a volatile week of wx, it appears we will be heading towards a "pull back" of some sort next week across the western/central Sub.  We will be entering the period of the LRC (I know it hasn't been as good of a long lead indicator this year) where the NOV Ridge was in play.  Who remembers that Torch back in NOV?  Well, that Upper MW/Plains ridge is going to poke east for a period of time.  It looks like a good 5-day period of real warmth tries to make its way into the heartland.  I recall back on NOV 5th-9th there was a strong Upper Level ridge that migrated eastward and brought some real warm conditions over much of the Sub.  Sadly, this may eat away at our snow cover (except up north).  However, once we get towards the middle of the month, that ridge migrates west and pulls up the NW NAMER ridge (AKA NW FLOW) that will usher in the cold back into the pattern.  In fact, I'm seeing some pretty remarkable agreement in the LR among all the other models that the second half of JAN could be colder than what we are seeing now.  

1.gif

 

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It is now official that going back to 1899 (when complete 12 month records are available) that 2021 with a mean of 50.8 at Grand Rapids was the 8th warmest on record. With a mean of 51.1 it was the 3rd warmest at Muskegon and it was the 4th warmest at Lansing. There is too much missing data to come up with the ranking at Kalamazoo.
It looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 13. Here at my house the overnight low was 16 that 16 is the current official reading at GRR here at my house with cloudy skies it is 18. There is 3.0" of snow on the ground here.

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Just as they said, no snow up at my place, but looked like a lot of people in southeastern KY got some.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Sunshine has finally creeped out. Not sure how long it has been since I saw it, but in any case, its 9F under partly to mostly sunny, under a nice snowcover.

Btw: My area Macomb county was the jackpot yesterday in snowfall totals. A few 5" totals were reported by me, not too far at all.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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41 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Are there any signs of a winter storm for Iowa anytime soon? Right now, the models don't have much of anything here for awhile. I sure hope that changes.

"Winter Storm"--- not happening in next 10-14 days. Maybe clipper like accumulations under 2" with a few CAA and WAA events but pretty much flipping back to the main pattern which is dry and seasonal (if not above once the snow is gone)

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yep, there's nothing in sight for Iowa.  I'm glad we were able to cash in over the weekend because that's it for a while.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Looking at western Canada, these two graphics seem diametrically opposed.  Is it just to be concluded that the CFS is junk, or that the strength of the ridge in the west is being way overdone by the Euro?    

 

1.gifcfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

Sometimes its right, but in this situation and time of year, I think its to strong with the +EPO influence.  It should be noted that the Euro has a bias with hanging troughs in the west to long.  Back in NOV, that trough never went away which was a dagger for bringing any cold into the lower 48.  The CFSv2 isn't backing down and going all-in with the cold coming back by the middle part of the month.  Interesting battle.  I'll post what the Euro Weeklies show later today.

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Sure does feel like January out there.I was taking care of a few errands and decided to capture this photo. Temps started off in the S.D's this morning and staying in the 20s all day, along w a beautiful snowcover around. Feels awesome outside today, although, there is a biting wind at times. That crisp, cold air feels good!

 

Todaypic.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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36/29 in Ashland, coolest day in almost 1 month.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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In regards to LR pattern, let's dissect the data a bit deeper between the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies.  The American model takes a trip through the very cold phases in the longer range and paints a great picture for Winter to return and lock in for the rest of this month.  Phase 8/1/2 are the holy grail for cold/snow....

1.gif

 

Meanwhile, the Euro weeklies are slowly shifting more into Phase 8 but eventually into the "null phase".  While not an entirely bad situation, it does show members trying to keep it in the colder phases like the CFSv2.

2.gif

 

What about storms???  Well, there is one part of this pattern that is perking my attn during the Week 2 period for our eastern Sub.  Specifically, the MW/GL's region is likely to benefit from this pattern post 13th/14th.  The GEFS/EPS are sniffing out a southern piece coming up thru the S MW into the Lower Lakes/OHV around this timeframe.  It appears to be a marginal set up but I think there will be enough residual cold air to produce some wintry precip.  Once this system departs, the pattern around the 15th and beyond looks to snap back into an overall colder one after a "pullback" of sorts.

The models all agree the EPO to turn back (-) and develop more high lat blocking (neutral AO/NAO)...the return of a N ATL blocking pattern is def showing signs of returning for mid and late JAN.  The last few frames of the animation below suggest this N ATL ridge to begin blossoming around the 16th and moving forward.

temp10anim.gif

 

Low and behold, both the GEFS/EPS show this nicely in the Week 2 period....boy, look at the "look" off the GEFS and the strong STJ signal...southern stream track???

3.gif

4.gif

 

What is also interesting from these maps is we no longer have to deal with a stout -PNA signal in the LR due to the monster Aleutian trough that appears to be setting up.  Remember back in NOV/DEC that nasty Aleutian Ridge that seemingly never went away???  Well, here we are, the EPS is suggesting storm after storm to track south of the Aleutians (big southern stream signal) in the "not so distant future".

5.gif

 

It's not surprising the LR GEFS and Euro Weeklies are quite wintry...they both suggest the north get it first, then it bleeds south post 18th...lot's of interesting maps to look at here that should keep things active after our quite period.

6.png

7.png

 

2.gif

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We’ll have a week of cold reprieve.   
Highs 50’s-60. Lows 20’s 30’s. 
Dry and some sun.  
 

Feeling for Virginians stuck 24 hrs on highway for 24 hrs plus. Cold, running out of fuel. After last yrs deep freeze in Texas I really know how these folks feel.  
Don’t forget to have an emergency survival kit in your cars.  
 

Edit:   Thurs/Fri deep cold returns. Low 20’s-teens.  Too dry for snow or ice.  We’re off to a very cold start.  Quite windy today as the early shift begins to appear.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Some very cold places just set low temp records--- Grand Forks,ND and Hibbing,MN--- both near -40F which is about as cold as it gets- even later in winter when it's colder- hence the records. image.thumb.png.81c3feb4bd8d14798b7100c82d6cd30a.png

 

image.thumb.png.f4af05a94dc1d9d67ee00184f4aea015.png

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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