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January 2022 Observations & Discussion


Tom

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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While the Arctic Front barrels its way through MBY (literally as I speak)...I'm always in the search for Winter Wx...

Screen Shot 2022-01-05 at 2.01.24 AM.png

 

Gosh, am I grateful to have snow OTG and fortunate to witness a nice white landscape all the while this Arctic invasion hits for a few days.  It would have been an entirely different story if there was brown grass to deal with...anyway, on the topic of potential systems, the models are still trying to sniff out a system around the 13th-15th timeframe.  At this range, it looks like we will be tracking a northern piece coming S/SE of the Canadien prairies and potentially phasing with a southern piece somewhere over the eastern Sub.  This fits the LRC picture of a massive Veteran's Day GL's storm that walloped the GL's with high winds, heavy precip, etc.  It was one of the signature storms of the Autumn.  Let's see how this unfolds.

11/11/21 Surface Map...

satsfcnps2021111118.gif

 

 

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The EC could be in for one heck of a Winterstorm w/ 1-2 Feet of snow.  Places from DC-BOS...lookout.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2i.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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36 minutes ago, Niko said:

The EC could be in for one heck of a Winterstorm w/ 1-2 Feet of snow.  Places from DC-BOS...lookout.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2i.jpg?w=632

Models have trended much weaker and farther out to sea.  The latest GFS, Euro, and NAM show no more than 1-3" from Philly to Boston.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

While the Arctic Front barrels its way through MBY (literally as I speak)...I'm always in the search for Winter Wx...

Screen Shot 2022-01-05 at 2.01.24 AM.png

 

Gosh, am I grateful to have snow OTG and fortunate to witness a nice white landscape all the while this Arctic invasion hits for a few days.  It would have been an entirely different story if there was brown grass to deal with...anyway, on the topic of potential systems, the models are still trying to sniff out a system around the 13th-15th timeframe.  At this range, it looks like we will be tracking a northern piece coming S/SE of the Canadien prairies and potentially phasing with a southern piece somewhere over the eastern Sub.  This fits the LRC picture of a massive Veteran's Day GL's storm that walloped the GL's with high winds, heavy precip, etc.  It was one of the signature storms of the Autumn.  Let's see how this unfolds.

11/11/21 Surface Map...

 

 

 

Nothing worse than brown grass and wind chills of -20! That's what we have; just not a good year for my area! Hopefully things change moving forward! 

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56 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Nothing worse than brown grass and wind chills of -20! That's what we have; just not a good year for my area! Hopefully things change moving forward! 

Thru at least the next 10 days looks pretty bleak for eastern Nebraska. A more active late Jan thru Feb will be better late than never, hopefully not a "winter never shows up" like 2019-20. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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For much of ND/ N.MN this will be the coldest start for the first 10 days of JAN in recent memory. Looking up stats right now and nothing in the last 25 years will come close for first 1/3rd of month. -- that includes Jan 1994 and 1996 / 2014- all 3 brutal. 96 waned until the end of the month with all time cold- 94' peaked mid month. 14' was consistent.  Will be fun following an almost sure Top 10 cold JAN for the areas above.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Much of NEB seems to be screwed this year. Secondly is much of IA- at least for snow, its still darn right cold even for IA standards - and will likely be top 12 cold by the 10th. No one seems to focusing on the cold in ND in N.MN-- it's beginning to take on a historic pattern. But no dice of TWC covering it like they do stranded idiots on a freeway out east. I get it. But cmon on man- learn something about the past. Not your first rodeo.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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21 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Much of NEB seems to be screwed this year. Secondly is much of IA- at least for snow, its still darn right cold even for IA standards - and will likely be top 12 cold by the 10th. No one seems to focusing on the cold in ND in N.MN-- it's beginning to take on a historic pattern. But no dice of TWC covering it like they do stranded idiots on a freeway out east. I get it. But cmon on man- learn something about the past. Not your first rodeo.

I-95 has always been prone to random dumps of snow yet it's the end of the world every time it happens. Not to mention when DC and NYC dip below 20 everybody freaks out and it's considered an arctic blast LOL 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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With the farther-ene location and solid snow cover, it should be much colder here than in Omaha over the next ten days.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models have trended much weaker and farther out to sea.  The latest GFS, Euro, and NAM show no more than 1-3" from Philly to Boston.

Yes, substantially weaker...2-4" at the most (leading w/2-3"). Up by Portland, ME, 6-12" is a good bet as the storm intensifies.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hit 60 and sunny today.   
Tomorrow cloudy 40 with a low of 24 Wind gusty at 20 +/-.

 We’re back on the roller coaster.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Here comes the first real snowfall. The 0.1" a month ago would be considered a dusting/trace by most people.

2022-01-05 16_32_18-iNWS Alert.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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269906744_4686556251413352_9212484935524662610_n.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

 

The Texas Panhandle is seeing very bipolar weather this week. Tomorrow Pampa, TX has a forecast high of only 27F Thursday with a lows in the single digits. 2 days later the high is near 70F! On Sunday temperatures drop back down to the 40's.

3a313fad2549ed622a3307192db8e2b4b81d96c3

That's west Texas for you. Not sure if I could handle such a volatile climate like that of West TX/NM/CO. Cold snaps aren't fun when they last no more than 2 days.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Last nights 0z EPS continue to trend better for the potential system that is bound to show up for late week/weekend into the MW/GL's.  Big uptick in the ensembles for a formidable system that should effect a lot of members on here, esp over the eastern Sub.  Both GEFS/EPS seeing a similar setup.  Is this the start of a wave train???   I believe so and it also looks like the teleconnections will begin to playing ball.  BTW, the warm up keeps getting delay for the GL's region on the EPS and something the GEFS have also been suggesting.  Looks like a minimal warm up before the cold and snow reloads.  I'm starting to feel pretty good about the duration of the cold coming back and the storms that are lining up.  I'm expecting a big ticket storm coming out of the TX Pan Handle during the 19th-21st timeframe.

1.gif

 

FWIW, what is about to transpire in the N PAC is a thing of beauty and a pattern that does not suggest the return of a stout -PNA (slightly (-) to neutral) in the extended.  However, the return of the -EPO and NE PAC ridge is pretty much in agreement with all the models.  Our friend down in OK @OKwx2k4and possibly @Andie should be back in the game later this month.  The cold will press and deliver some Winter Fun for ya'll down there!

2.gif

 

2.png

 

LR GEFS...

3.png

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Last nights 0z EPS continue to trend better for the potential system that is bound to show up for late week/weekend into the MW/GL's.  Big uptick in the ensembles for a formidable system that should effect a lot of members on here, esp over the eastern Sub.  Both GEFS/EPS seeing a similar setup.  Is this the start of a wave train???   I believe so and it also looks like the teleconnections will begin to playing ball.  BTW, the warm up keeps getting delay for the GL's region on the EPS and something the GEFS have also been suggesting.  Looks like a minimal warm up before the cold and snow reloads.  I'm starting to feel pretty good about the duration of the cold coming back and the storms that are lining up.  I'm expecting a big ticket storm coming out of the TX Pan Handle during the 19th-21st timeframe.

1.gif

 

FWIW, what is about to transpire in the N PAC is a thing of beauty and a pattern that does not suggest the return of a stout -PNA (slightly (-) to neutral) in the extended.  However, the return of the -EPO and NE PAC ridge is pretty much in agreement with all the models.  Our friend down in OK @OKwx2k4and possibly @Andie should be back in the game later this month.  The cold will press and deliver some Winter Fun for ya'll down there!

2.gif

 

2.png

 

LR GEFS...

3.png

Thanks for the update, Tom. Hopefully after what appears to be a week to 10 day break in the extreme cold/storms hopefully later this month into Feb. we can get into some wetter/colder storms. Only .5 inches of snow in my part of KC so far this winter. WOW! Let's shoot for a back loaded winter. 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Last nights 0z EPS continue to trend better for the potential system that is bound to show up for late week/weekend into the MW/GL's.  Big uptick in the ensembles for a formidable system that should effect a lot of members on here, esp over the eastern Sub.  Both GEFS/EPS seeing a similar setup.  Is this the start of a wave train???   I believe so and it also looks like the teleconnections will begin to playing ball.  BTW, the warm up keeps getting delay for the GL's region on the EPS and something the GEFS have also been suggesting.  Looks like a minimal warm up before the cold and snow reloads.  I'm starting to feel pretty good about the duration of the cold coming back and the storms that are lining up.  I'm expecting a big ticket storm coming out of the TX Pan Handle during the 19th-21st timeframe.

1.gif

 

FWIW, what is about to transpire in the N PAC is a thing of beauty and a pattern that does not suggest the return of a stout -PNA (slightly (-) to neutral) in the extended.  However, the return of the -EPO and NE PAC ridge is pretty much in agreement with all the models.  Our friend down in OK @OKwx2k4and possibly @Andie should be back in the game later this month.  The cold will press and deliver some Winter Fun for ya'll down there!

2.gif

 

2.png

 

LR GEFS...

3.png

You mentioned a storm in the 19th-21st timeframe, the 6z GEFS looks good for your area.  Good ensemble agreement for a storm at this range.

1642831200-NsszMpDi6kE.png

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Yesterdays snow fall was almost all lake effect. Officially Grand Rapids had 8.0" at midnight for the month GR is now 13.7" and for the season GR is now at 33.5" At Muskegon they had a official reading of 5.3" of new snow and now have 7.5" for January and 17.3" for the season. Now here is where the totals really drop from yesterday. At Lansing they reported an official new snow fall total of just 1.0" for January there are now at 5.4" and for the season 17.9" On the east side of the state Detroit had just a trace of snow yesterday and now have 2.7" for January and 13.1" for the season. At Flint they reported just 0.6" of new snow and now have 4.7" for January and 20.2" for the season. At Saginaw they reported 0.4" of new snow and now have 0.9" for January and 12.9 for the season. 

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22 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models have trended much weaker and farther out to sea.  The latest GFS, Euro, and NAM show no more than 1-3" from Philly to Boston.

Looks like they have upped the totals. These type of systems sometimes tend to energize last second....

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
355 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-176-178-062100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0500Z-220107T1700Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
355 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
  York.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could range between one half
  inch and one inch per hour in any heavy snowbands.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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27 with DP's in the teens, definitely cold enough to snow. KJKL radar filling in with precipitation. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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With Tom’s mention of Okla and Tx seeing a reprieve til l  as te Jan. I’m okay with that.  
Rough weather is hard on older folks and livestock.  I’m ok with a cold snap or two after last years polar fit!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Some of the coldest wind chills you will see in the lower 48 outside elevation (MT Washington etc) below-

would be near -75F to -80F on the old wind chill charts pre 2001--- I once experienced a -100F or so wind chill on Lake Mille Lacs in Central MN, Martin Luther King weekend 1994 ice fishing (sleeper house) frost was on inside of 4" walls and propane in shed was gelling up. Temp was near -30F with 30-35 mph winds out 4-5 miles from shore.

But these are D**n cold in ND--

image.thumb.png.35dc415afa6a55b7638cd6141b3550b3.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The 12z GFS has has a warm-up for a few days next week, especially for the plains, but then unleashes cold on the US.  This run has the first appearance of a major polar vortex plunge at the end of the run.  Unfortunately, there would not be much snow cover across the region.  If it does get that cold, I'd really like a deep, powdery snow cover to protect the garden.  We'll probably end up with something a bit tamer.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The snow has just started. Light flurries so far in Ashland.

The noisy dogs next door just started barking, hopefully it's not the snow they're yacking at this time.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I got the driveway cleared off. This is the first time I have used the snowblower this year really didn't use it that much the last two winters. There has been light to at time moderate snow falling here for sometime now. I now have a total of 12.5" of snow on the ground and in places it is up to 14" 

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34 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I got the driveway cleared off. This is the first time I have used the snowblower this year really didn't use it that much the last two winters. There has been light to at time moderate snow falling here for sometime now. I now have a total of 12.5" of snow on the ground and in places it is up to 14" 

My average snow depth was 12.5 inches in my backyard.  So pretty spot on to what you are showing.  

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6 to 8 inches has fallen in the Nashville area today. Very significant storm for there, seasonal average is around 6". Meanwhile the low was -1 here this morning with basically bare ground 😬

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Omaha yearly weather summary for Omaha, Lincoln, and Norfolk. Wet and warm, just the way I like it🤪

https://www.weather.gov/media/oax/Climate/2021_Yearly_summary.pdf

Here's stats from my backyard.

Avg low: 43.0 

Coldest low: -23.6 (2/16)

Avg. high: 64.5

Hottest high: 102.0 (6/17)

Total precip: 35.71" (+2.50")

Greatest 24 hour precip: 2.85" (3/14)

Total snowfall: 28.1" (+1.0")

Greatest 24 hour snowfall: 8.0" (1/25)

Watches/warnings/advisories issued:

7 winter weather advisories

3 winter storm warnings

1 blizzard warning

4 wind chill advisories

2 wind chill warnings

5 red flag warnings

6 wind advisories

2 high wind warnings

5 dense fog advisories

2 frost advisories

5 freeze warnings

8 severe tstorm watches

6 severe tstorm warnings

1 tornado watch

1 flood watch

1 flash flood watch

1 flash flood warning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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