Hawkeye Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 The afternoon high in Cedar Rapids today was -3º. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 I kinda doubt we reach -30 tonight despite my grid saying -31. SW flow has arrived and I'm only at -23. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Yikes, its a weee bit chilly out there....I had to go out on my patio deck earlier and close my eyes, take in a deep breath and feel that cold air....I dunno about you, but I have been yearning for wx like this for what seems forever! Currently +0F...I'll prob head back if temps dip below 0F for the first time this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 ORD reported a Trace of snow yesterday adding to the daily snow reports for the season. Meantime, before the WeatherModels server crapped to bed...I was able to save the 0z Euro animation below....who wants to co-sign??? I see you Euro...been on my radar and that run is almost to a "T" of what I was envisioning. In fact, its even better bc it adds those out in the Plains states. Are we going to see an "I-80 special"??? The blocking setting up during this period argues in favor of a more classic west/east route into the Lower Lakes/OHV region. Both the EPS/GEFS are seeing a good signal for the Hudson Bay Block "over the top"...this is a quintessential set up for a slow moving system (similar to previous LRC cycle) to traverse the MW/GL's region. IMO, this will be our next storm to track...let's hope for + trends in future runs... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 As we approach what I'd call the "reloading" period later next week, we will also be heading into the midpoint of met Winter when it typically is the coldest part of Winter. Is nature going to cooperate? IMHO, I think what is setting up for a lot of our members that have been on the sidelines in terms of snow, are in a much better position for what is coming down the line. There are several Long Lead indicators I look at that are lining up and screaming an active/cold winter pattern ahead for the rest of JAN once we get towards next weekend. Those who have been lucky to see snow will probably continue to add in that dept. I do feel those in the S MW and Plains stand a much better chance of seeing more snow chances as the pattern looks ripe for the arctic air to press. Lets see what the models are showing and why I'm pretty confident we (most of this Sub) will benefit from this forthcoming pattern. First off, good riddance to that pesky SER that was a "dagger" to most of us...I would gladly take a neutral to slightly - PNA "all day".... Second, I'm digging the -EPO...pretty solid agreement right there....not to mention, but most of the models also agree for a return of the N ATL Ridge (AKA Greenland Block). As these features develop, we will see the STJ activate and systems digging into the W/SW while the NW NAMER ridge fires up "seeding" the cold into the lower 48. A very pronounced signal that the later parts of this month we will see multiple systems coming out of SW and/or CO. Yesterday's Euro Weeklies paint quite an active period for the 2nd half of JAN...the BSR/LRC suggest the same...as the teleconnections align, will nature cooperate and shine some white gold for all??? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 hours ago, Tom said: Yikes, its a weee bit chilly out there....I had to go out on my patio deck earlier and close my eyes, take in a deep breath and feel that cold air....I dunno about you, but I have been yearning for wx like this for what seems forever! Currently +0F...I'll prob head back if temps dip below 0F for the first time this season. Uh, I don’t know about anyone else, but in Texas we call this just “a little loco.” 70* with a MaiTai is more my speed. Low of 22* this morning. 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Weak system tomorrow might be enough to get a WWA for frz drizzle and light snow for KC up to Chicago and Mich. I was suppose to have a high of 50 tomorrow that has changed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 With some clearing the overnight low here dropped down to 0° the official overnight low at GRR looks to have been +1. Of course that is by far the coldest it has been this winter season. at this time it up to +5 here with clear skies to the east and clouds to the west, overhead there are clouds but to the east and NE it is clear. Officially GRR reported 5.3" of new snow fall yesterday. Here at my house I recorded 6.5" yesterday at GRR they reported 11" of snow on the ground here at my house I have 12.5" of snow on the ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Unexpectedly, a widespread area of clouds moved through eastern Iowa from midnight to 5am and brought the temp drop to a halt, so we came up short of the forecasted -15º. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Sunshine is breaking through those low, gray clouds this morning, along w/ a current temp of 9F. Btw: That big Winterstorm out east did a a number in my hometown. : Huge overachiever. Looks like that storm backed up a bit more near the coastline. Family members and friends told me this was the first major snowfall of the season. Several spots in southern Connecticut received near a foot of snow. As cold air remains put, this snow aint going anywhere anytime soon. Happy for them! NOAA: Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 8.4 in 0700 AM 01/07 Official NWS Obs 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Yes, the NY-Bos system really came together. TWC's Paul Goodloe was reporting 2"/hr for 3-4 hours this morning in Boston. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Yes, the NY-Bos system really came together. TWC's Paul Goodloe was reporting 2"/hr for 3-4 hours this morning in Boston. Yes..that is what I was told too, in fact, my sister and brother-in law told me that they could not see the buildings just across from them. That is how heavy the snow was. This is why Meteorologists need to be very careful w/these Atlantic storms because they can provide some nice surprises (like this one did). Winter Wonderland for them... finally. Also, they are definitely behind in the snow dept. February is their snowiest month, so hopefully, they will catch up w/ some major snowstorms during that point of time. Btw: I saw the vid w/ Paul .G reporting in that hvy snow and man, B-Town was poundtown for those hours. Dang...!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 This would be sweet...... 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 10 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: I kinda doubt we reach -30 tonight despite my grid saying -31. SW flow has arrived and I'm only at -23. Yup, looks like we only hit -26. Gonna climb quite a bit for the next 24 hours before crashing again. Good news is no more extreme cold for the foreseeable future. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Skies cleared last night with a north wind and no lake effect clouds and fresh snow cover. Dropped to .8 degrees. Currently up to 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Total snow 3.4" I measured. After sundown it continued lightly snowing but it stopped around midnight. Airport still thinks its snowing but I stepped out a handful of times and nothing was falling. Widely ranging reports from 2" to 8+ in spots. Catlettsburg had 6" and they're just a short drive out of Ashland. Someone SW of me reported 1.8" barely in city limits. Shouldn't we have a spotter in downtown measuring snowfall? 7 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Check out this explosive on Winterstorm Garrett as it continues to move away from the major cities and heads on up to the Gulf of Maine. These folks are in for a treat! Wait..wut.......Flashbacks of 2013-14 (PV in the works??!!) 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 I like this. The GFS says the pattern is about to get all sorts of blocked up. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 48 minutes ago, Niko said: Check out this explosive on Winterstorm Garrett as it continues to move away from the major cities and heads on up to the Gulf of Maine. These folks are in for a treat! Wait..wut.......Flashbacks of 2013-14 (PV in the works??!!) The northwest is sharing their cold finally! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 I'm no LRC expert, but last I heard the "cycle" is now 63-65 days.... How can anyone take a look at these numbers and temperature pattern from back in November, and think January is going to end well here in eastern Nebraska? Hint: there's no precip and temps are way above normal almost every day. Omaha, NE - November, 2021 Date Observed Low (F) Observed High (F) Normal Low (F) Normal High (F) Record Low Min (F) Year Record High Max (F) Year Observed Precipitation (inches) Record Precipitation (inches) Record Precipitation Year Observed Snow Fall (inches) Record Snow Fall (inches) Record Snow Fall Year 1 32 46 36 57 17 1911 80 1887 0.00 1.38 1992 0.0 2.0 1941 2 27 51 36 57 9 1991 82 2005 0.00 0.74 2011 0.0 5.7 1928 3 36 50 35 56 6 1991 81 2020 0.00 1.81 2003 0.0 0.2 1901 4 36 59 35 56 3 1991 76 1909 0.00 1.19 1956 0.0 0.2 1901 5 42 64 35 55 15 1877 80 1945 0.00 1.00 2013 0.0 1.0 1901 6 40 69 34 55 7 1991 80 1914 0.00 1.99 2000 0.0 4.0 1990 7 47 71 34 54 -1 1991 77 2001 0.00 0.84 1918 0.0 2.0 1926 8 38 65 33 54 7 1991 82 1999 0.00 1.10 1977 0.0 4.1 1973 9 37 64 33 53 14 2018 73 1999 0.00 1.36 1940 0.0 3.4 1932 10 47 58 32 53 2 1986 78 1927 0.34 1.45 1879 0.0 2.7 1968 11 37 55 32 52 -3 1986 74 1964 0.00 1.42 1882 0.0 2.4 1929 12 31 37 32 52 1 1911 74 2005 T 1.97 2010 T 3.2 1929 13 28 50 31 52 -2 1986 83 1999 T 1.88 1909 0.0 7.9 1972 14 34 49 31 51 -3 1940 76 1964 0.00 0.91 1926 0.0 2.0 1947 15 39 59 30 51 3 1940 75 2001 0.00 1.63 1964 0.0 1.8 2014 16 39 71 30 50 3 1959 73 2016 0.00 1.38 1996 0.0 9.0 1886 17 36 50 30 50 4 1891 73 1953 0.00 2.01 1952 0.0 4.4 1886 18 27 44 29 49 8 1914 74 1908 0.00 1.62 1871 0.0 6.2 1957 19 26 52 29 49 1 1914 73 2020 0.00 1.88 1953 0.0 2.5 1985 20 34 61 28 48 4 1985 75 1933 0.00 0.84 1973 0.0 5.1 1956 21 27 51 28 48 -3 1937 72 2012 0.00 0.83 1898 0.0 8.3 1898 22 28 48 28 47 -4 1871 70 1966 0.00 0.80 1999 0.0 4.0 1909 23 30 67 27 47 1 1898 67 2021 0.00 1.95 1931 0.0 2.3 1971 24 31 53 27 46 3 1898 73 2011 0.00 1.18 2001 0.0 1.4 1972 25 23 35 26 46 3 1977 72 1960 0.00 0.80 1952 0.0 6.7 1952 26 27 55 26 45 1 1898 67 1914 0.00 1.59 1896 0.0 2.9 1931 27 33 62 26 45 -14 1887 67 2017 0.00 2.16 1983 0.0 8.5 1983 28 24 49 25 44 -4 1976 65 2006 0.00 0.47 1971 0.0 5.7 1971 29 33 67 25 44 -6 1875 72 1998 0.00 1.84 1997 0.0 6.1 1919 30 33 57 25 43 -9 1964 66 1922 T 1.65 1981 0.0 4.1 1974 Average 33.4 55.6 30.2 50.3 0.34 Normal = 1.45 0.0 Normal = 1.7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 hours ago, Niko said: Check out this explosive on Winterstorm Garrett as it continues to move away from the major cities and heads on up to the Gulf of Maine. These folks are in for a treat! Wait..wut.......Flashbacks of 2013-14 (PV in the works??!!) That early Jan 1994 polar vortex was just crazy!!! I was away but in south central Pennsylvania mountains where I lived my neighbor said it was -37!!!! Ohio valley set records that may never be broken. Dec 1993 was a blowtorch eastern usa but after that pv the storm train set in. Was the most snow any season of my life 99 inches. 52 in my yard at one point. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 Blowing snow is once again an issue here. Pretty intense in spots currently and it looks like we're in store for another ground blizzard tomorrow. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 EPS looks a good bit warmer than GEFS in the long range 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 GFS going full on Polar air in long range. Will it stick? 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7, 2022 Report Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I'm no LRC expert, but last I heard the "cycle" is now 63-65 days.... How can anyone take a look at these numbers and temperature pattern from back in November, and think January is going to end well here in eastern Nebraska? Hint: there's no precip and temps are way above normal almost every day. Omaha, NE - November, 2021 Date Observed Low (F) Observed High (F) Normal Low (F) Normal High (F) Record Low Min (F) Year Record High Max (F) Year Observed Precipitation (inches) Record Precipitation (inches) Record Precipitation Year Observed Snow Fall (inches) Record Snow Fall (inches) Record Snow Fall Year 1 32 46 36 57 17 1911 80 1887 0.00 1.38 1992 0.0 2.0 1941 2 27 51 36 57 9 1991 82 2005 0.00 0.74 2011 0.0 5.7 1928 3 36 50 35 56 6 1991 81 2020 0.00 1.81 2003 0.0 0.2 1901 4 36 59 35 56 3 1991 76 1909 0.00 1.19 1956 0.0 0.2 1901 5 42 64 35 55 15 1877 80 1945 0.00 1.00 2013 0.0 1.0 1901 6 40 69 34 55 7 1991 80 1914 0.00 1.99 2000 0.0 4.0 1990 7 47 71 34 54 -1 1991 77 2001 0.00 0.84 1918 0.0 2.0 1926 8 38 65 33 54 7 1991 82 1999 0.00 1.10 1977 0.0 4.1 1973 9 37 64 33 53 14 2018 73 1999 0.00 1.36 1940 0.0 3.4 1932 10 47 58 32 53 2 1986 78 1927 0.34 1.45 1879 0.0 2.7 1968 11 37 55 32 52 -3 1986 74 1964 0.00 1.42 1882 0.0 2.4 1929 12 31 37 32 52 1 1911 74 2005 T 1.97 2010 T 3.2 1929 13 28 50 31 52 -2 1986 83 1999 T 1.88 1909 0.0 7.9 1972 14 34 49 31 51 -3 1940 76 1964 0.00 0.91 1926 0.0 2.0 1947 15 39 59 30 51 3 1940 75 2001 0.00 1.63 1964 0.0 1.8 2014 16 39 71 30 50 3 1959 73 2016 0.00 1.38 1996 0.0 9.0 1886 17 36 50 30 50 4 1891 73 1953 0.00 2.01 1952 0.0 4.4 1886 18 27 44 29 49 8 1914 74 1908 0.00 1.62 1871 0.0 6.2 1957 19 26 52 29 49 1 1914 73 2020 0.00 1.88 1953 0.0 2.5 1985 20 34 61 28 48 4 1985 75 1933 0.00 0.84 1973 0.0 5.1 1956 21 27 51 28 48 -3 1937 72 2012 0.00 0.83 1898 0.0 8.3 1898 22 28 48 28 47 -4 1871 70 1966 0.00 0.80 1999 0.0 4.0 1909 23 30 67 27 47 1 1898 67 2021 0.00 1.95 1931 0.0 2.3 1971 24 31 53 27 46 3 1898 73 2011 0.00 1.18 2001 0.0 1.4 1972 25 23 35 26 46 3 1977 72 1960 0.00 0.80 1952 0.0 6.7 1952 26 27 55 26 45 1 1898 67 1914 0.00 1.59 1896 0.0 2.9 1931 27 33 62 26 45 -14 1887 67 2017 0.00 2.16 1983 0.0 8.5 1983 28 24 49 25 44 -4 1976 65 2006 0.00 0.47 1971 0.0 5.7 1971 29 33 67 25 44 -6 1875 72 1998 0.00 1.84 1997 0.0 6.1 1919 30 33 57 25 43 -9 1964 66 1922 T 1.65 1981 0.0 4.1 1974 Average 33.4 55.6 30.2 50.3 0.34 Normal = 1.45 0.0 Normal = 1.7 IMO after a possible storm late next week things look bleak until the 2nd week of Feb. Maybe if the pattern gets blocked up like the GFS shows we'll get a different result but lets see if that actually happens. I remember this part of the pattern for being the cold is always 10 days away. Maybe we'll get something different this time, the wet part of the pattern wasn't exactly wet here this time. Good luck! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 NWS still confirming tornadoes from December 15th. Now up to 117 total tornadoes! 1 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 So far 21/10 today! It's dropping into the single digits. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 #Chiberia has returned in Year 2022...slight wind out of the west was enough to bring 0F temps all the way to the shoreline on Friday morning. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 Boy, the EPS is having issues in the medium/long range...I haven't seen it flip back n forth so wildly yet this winter. The GEFS have been locked on the transition back towards a sustained colder/wintry pattern that is poised to start next weekend. First, we need to get through this "muted" pullback of sorts this coming week. I'm worried that our snow pack will be gone by end of next week but thats ok if that means we have a storm system to track to replenish the White Gold. The silver lining wrt to this weeks warm up is it'll give me an opportunity to take down the outdoor holiday decor bc I gotta feeling that once this pattern turns it'll be a while before it gets warm. Last nights 0z EPS turned the corner towards the GEFS lead with this pattern in the extended. It's really having issues in the NE PAC/NW NAMER region. Suddenly, it is going all-in with the -EPO and following suit with the rest of the global models. Not only do we see agreement in the blocking setting up but we are also seeing agreement with the storm system potential next weekend. As an example, look at the flip from the very warm run yesterday (12z) and compare it to last nights (0z) run.... Vs.... Rumors of Storms?? Individual op runs are being rather erratic bc of the blocks that are setting up but the ensembles are painting some interesting runs for late next week. The puck doesn't stop there as I see the pattern becomes loaded up. IMO, I think there is a real fun period of tracking post 14th-16th storm system. This lead system sets the stage and will snap the pattern back towards sustained winter for most of this Sub. The GEFS are coming along pretty good as are the EPS members for a formidable system to effect the midsection of the nation up into the GL's. Lot's of factors that will play into this systems development but one of the ingredients will be the Hudson Bay Block and what role will it play. This system should be a slow mover but one thing is for certain, Winter will be coming back and it should have sustained legs. There are several LR indicators that I'm using to suggest so and if you follow the BSR along with the Strat warm/cold pools that are developing....one can only fathom that the pattern will be ripe for storm tracking and the cold to press. 0z GEFS members for next weekend...I'm guessing that by Mon we will start seeing these maps fill up some more... Both the GEFS/EPS are in remarkable agreement for the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Trough to lock and rock...this is a huge clue for the LR pattern that should produce sustained cold for the lower 48. Are the next 2-4 weeks going to rival what we saw last year? Or the year prior to that where we saw multiple visits from the Polar Vortex??? We may be on the verge of something really special. I'm prob going to get some heat from a few of you on here, but that's ok, bc I'm going all-in that this winter will be saved for many on here. The backloaded winter of '21-'22 is set to begin. The CPC boys and CFSv2 are on the same page and I'm sure the Euro Weeklies will trend this way deeper into FEB as well. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 The year of the ground Blizzards continues up north for what has been a winter to remember so far... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 The official overnight low here at my house was 11 the official overnight low was +8. The snow fall totals at Grand Rapids are now 19.0" for January and for the season Grand Rapids is now at 33.3" This morning I have 11.4" of snow on the ground. At this time with mostly clear skies the temperature here is 12. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 We got to a low of 7 in Ashland. I thought it would get to 0 at least considering it was 9 when I was going to bed. Now begins a warming trend. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 8 hours ago, Tom said: The year of the ground Blizzards continues up north for what has been a winter to remember so far... It was so bad last night. I had to drive to Valley City for work, and it got so bad that I had to ride a train home. There were about 7 cars in the ditch near Casselton due to zero visibility and drifts across 94. 8 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 My trip to MN and Fargo was canceled due to Covid issues so I'm in IA this weekend. GFS trying to phase the late week system earlier. Has a 1052 high following it 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 SUMMARY...Ground blizzard conditions will likely increase in coverage and duration over the next several hours for parts of central to eastern North Dakota. While little accumulating snow is expected, widespread visibility reductions between 1/2 to 1/4 mile are likely and may persist through the mid to late afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations across the northern Plains show winds increasing and temperatures rapidly falling behind an east/southeastward moving cold front. Visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile have been noted where winds are strongest across north-central ND, and regional web cams show periods of very low visibility in open country. Observed sustained winds between 25-30 knots are on the high side of the anticipated wind speed distribution per morning ensemble guidance. Hi-res solutions that capture current winds speeds more accurately shows wind increasing through the remainder of the morning and into the early/mid afternoon hours before weakening gradually after 22-00 UTC. While parts of central ND received light snowfall yesterday, most of eastern ND received anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of snowfall over the past 72 hours (per LSRs). Despite the age of the more substantial snow pack, blowing snow model probabilities suggesting blizzard conditions will become more widespread and sustained as winds approach the 28-32 knot range (with lower thresholds for locations that received light snow yesterday). Current indications are that sustained winds across central to east-central ND will fall within this range by late morning/early afternoon, supporting areas of blizzard conditions with visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile - especially in open country. Any gusts above this range (which are likely for most of the outlined region) will support periods of even lower visibility. Winds should gradually abate late this afternoon, but pockets of blizzard conditions may persist along the western periphery of the Red River Valley where topographic affects may support breezier conditions. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 Will it be Tom's epic dream world wave train of blizzards and extreme cold rarely seen or will today's 12Z GFS and the same pattern we've had that's denied almost all of us the predictions of an early start to winter and a white Thanksgiving and a white Christmas win out? Stay tuned..... 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: I really hope you're right. I will say that things are looking more promising. Last year, KC managed to be both north and south of the above normal snowfall. The cold pushed so far south in February, that we missed the heavier snow to our south. Prior to that time, the snow was mostly up in Nebraska and Iowa. Especially around Omaha and Des Moines, which had much AN snowfall. Hopefully this year, we can get some payback for being neglected during the best parts of last year. I do feel your region is overdue and with the teleconnections lining up in the extended it does appear the possibilities for snow chances are heightened in this type of pattern for the S MW region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 23 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Will it be Tom's epic dream world wave train of blizzards and extreme cold rarely seen or will today's 12Z GFS and the same pattern we've had that's denied almost all of us the predictions of an early start to winter and a white Thanksgiving and a white Christmas win out? Stay tuned..... White Gold all day...I'm not to sure nature will be so kind for your back yard.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 Highs right at the freezing mark are gonna feel so bizarre next week omg At least it'll finally get rid of the black ice. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 8, 2022 Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 Close Encounters with clouds all day. Heavy thick clouds. Low ceiling. At one point I could watch them drop and roll over the golf course then later lift. 54*. Humidity 90% No precipitation but it feels so wet outside you could clap your hands and it would rain! Same thing tomorrow. Monday clouds will move out but temps will stay the same. Humidity will drop to 60%. Winter in Texas is a blanket of moist and cold. Then suddenly sunny and windy. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.