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January 2022 Observations & Discussion


Tom

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We're still halfway snow covered, and seeing this (could be thundery?) on Paducah's radar coming in. 

KPAH_loop.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

White Gold all day...I'm not to sure nature will be so kind for your back yard....

I always enjoy reading your thoughts and appreciate when you mention possibilities for Nebraska as well, this sub forum covers massive area. Snow climo here is iffy at best. We were very fortunate last year. OMA/LNK averages 26-27" compared to 38" in Chicago. Most of that difference is probably due to those years Chicago recieves 20-30"+ more than here 😂 I'm frustrated this year myself but I wouldn't take anything personally. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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37/7 today, rain coming, sad snowman graphic.

270175448_286159600214125_3070402910222625540_n.jpg

  • Sad 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looks like icy conditions could develop tanite. Brutal cold follows this. Mondays nite lows here imby go below zero. Definitely coldest nite of the season.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Numerous reports of traffic accidents downstate and locally...ice is never so friendly, esp when people haven't really experienced that much winter driving conditions.  My patio deck has a sheet of ice on it but temps have risen above freezing (33-34F ) for a period of time since late last night.  All of this will re-freeze rapidly as the potent Arctic Front makes its way through later this morning.

The snow pack has a glaze over it and has compacted as a result.  Prob down to a 2.5" snow depth.  Actually, ORD just reported an official 3" snow depth.

 

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Speaking of the current status of the MW snow cover, one can see where nature has been kind and nasso much...

1.jpeg

 

2.jpeg

 

Dang, the eastern shores of LM have done quite well in the snow dept with an avg snow depth of 10-20"...

3.jpeg

 

I'd love to see this tomorrow morning before the next surge of arctic air....tracking the arctic weenie band....

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

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Who's ready to storm track?  When the models were showing zilch, I dug deep and analyzed the pattern knowing they were missing a storm...I love it when the models pick up on a pattern that comes to mind.  That Day 9-10 map the Euro flashed a couple days ago still has a chance of coming into fruition and covering a lot of the Sub near the I-80 corridor.  I like what I'm seeing off the Canadien/GEPS/GEFS at this range.  Just for eye candy....

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Last nights 0z Euro is missing the cut-off energy near the Baja this past run.  If we are to see a large scale phasing storm we need that energy to kick out ahead of the northern stream coming S/SE out of the southern prairies of Canada.  We've seen numerous similar situations and storm tracks as such since the beginning of this LRC.  So, when people ask why isn't this pattern producing?  I fully understand the frustration we have been dealt with in recent weeks when we the pattern just wasn't cooperating.  I will say, that now the forthcoming pattern is turning the corner and blocks are showing up in the models where we were lacking them in previous weeks.  For example, the 0z Canadien and its ensemble would be a perfect example of when "things come together"....

1.png

 

The vision I had for this system was for both energies to phase together, esp since we will have the downstream blocking...marry that with the Hudson Bay "Banana HP" it will play a big role "seeding" the cold.

 

1.gif

 

 

 

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Woah, now this is a complete flip in the EPS over the past couple runs...geeze, it is now seeing the expansive NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge and going all-in on the cold/snow post 15th.  Not only that, but the next storm following next weekends system is dialing up between the 19th-21st that has the "look" of a Big Dog coming out of the TX PanHandle region.  The GEFS are showing this potential as well that should encompass the S MW region.  Snow Blitz Jan' 22???

1.gif

 

On a side note, what is being suggested among all the models near the Aleutian Islands from the 15th and beyond is a thing of beauty.....this is what one would call a classic example of producing a winter pattern for the eastern CONUS.  Using the BSR as guidance, this pretty much would solidify the idea that this colder pattern has legs to run...I mean, in triathlon style!

2.gif

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The overnight temperature rose to 34 here. And there was some drizzle as well. Before the temperatures went above 32 there was some freezing drizzle. The current temperature here is 32 with cloudy skies. There is now 10.0" of snow on the ground here at my house. For the month of January GR is now at 19.0" of snow fall and for the season so far GR is at 38.8" At Muskegon their January snow fall is at 15.9 and for the season it is now at 25.7" To the east at Lansing there now have 6.4" for January and now are at 18.9 for the season.

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I think the wildlife here likes the rain more than the snow. The spring birds are chirping up a storm right now lol

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The 18z GFS has a massive hit for NYC, LI, CT, and the Jersey shore and points north for later on this weekend. It bears watching. Not sure how this might affect our weather here in the Midwest, but it definitely needs to be monitored in the coming days. As shown on this run, it would be a big bomb cyclone with a very powerful blizzard over LI and other surrounding coastal locales. The Gfs has a low with a barometric pressure of 28.30 off the coast on Friday (Hurricane like conditions 😅)Anyway ya slice it, get ready because this pattern coming up will get explosive for a lot of peeps on here, whether you are on the EC or the Midwest. Someone is going to get slammed real hard!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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22 hours ago, Tom said:

White Gold all day...I'm not to sure nature will be so kind for your back yard....

So back when this was predicted, were you using the LRC or do you remember which method you were using that didn’t work out since there’s no wave train or a powerhouse system now through the 11th?

084C1639-8842-45F5-B322-CECF690B18C9.thumb.jpeg.626965d92274f805e4672f8a8f1c2437.jpeg

floop-gfs-2022010712.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.639a64b788f8d625c5f9bfbd68460e07.gif

Same here?

0DEB34F9-9DDD-4805-8CF9-04390318DE37.thumb.jpeg.cacd2b9250386bc1f9d824b1548b95eb.jpeg

floop-gfs-2022010900.sfct_anom.conus.gif.a06a7b75b8f72aefb451824d8cc02b2b.gif

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The Euro has become more interesting at the end of the week.  The GFS is much farther northeast, dropping snow only on the northern lakes.  This is the system the Canadian model has been bullish on recently, although the 12z Canadian is much weaker.  It will just depend on how the energy comes together and how sharp the trough is digging out of Canada.

Update:  The UK looks similar to the Euro.

image.thumb.png.b3a09eab9fa40768981b81fc2eb6f9bf.png

image.thumb.png.e0fef6be1984a852b7d4979a02dfd856.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So back when this was predicted, were you using the LRC or do you remember which method you were using that didn’t work out since there’s no wave train or a powerhouse system now through the 11th?

084C1639-8842-45F5-B322-CECF690B18C9.thumb.jpeg.626965d92274f805e4672f8a8f1c2437.jpeg

floop-gfs-2022010712.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.639a64b788f8d625c5f9bfbd68460e07.gif

Same here?

0DEB34F9-9DDD-4805-8CF9-04390318DE37.thumb.jpeg.cacd2b9250386bc1f9d824b1548b95eb.jpeg

floop-gfs-2022010900.sfct_anom.conus.gif.a06a7b75b8f72aefb451824d8cc02b2b.gif

The system tracked across the Upper MW instead and was a potent storm earlier this week.  It came a couple days earlier than the predicted time frame. If you recall, there were Blizzard warnings issued for the Upper MW.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

The system tracked across the Upper MW instead and was a potent storm earlier this week.  It came a couple days earlier than the predicted time frame. If you recall, there were Blizzard warnings issued for the Upper MW.

I do remember that storm. So in other words the LRC is “a storm will be somewhere sometime in the next 7 days” forecasting tool now?

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I do remember that storm. So in other words the LRC is “a storm will be somewhere sometime in the next 7 days” forecasting tool now?

No…I was off…plus, i was using the BSR  to predict a system out 2 weeks.  

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Canadian has switched to a look similar to the other models as well, but is a bit farther ne than the others.

image.thumb.png.f6f585062a420e7c61f32cbc01fcf69b.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro is nearly identical to the 12z... well sw of the others.  A little bit of this through CR is actually from a weak clipper the Euro has suddenly introduced early Thursday morning.  It's possible that lead clipper could help keep the big one farther sw.

image.thumb.png.5954c2e3e78000a89abcb94d588719df.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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All of a sudden, there is a pop up clipper that the models are trying to track through the GL's on Thursday.  Appetizer for the weekends stronger hybrid clipper??  0z GEFS a bit more enthusiastic...nothing more than a fresh coating and def will "mute" the warm up that was forecast to extend through Friday around the GL's region.  We may be able to keep the snow pack in tact if there are enough clouds....keeping hopes up!

image.png

image.png

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So back when this was predicted, were you using the LRC or do you remember which method you were using that didn’t work out since there’s no wave train or a powerhouse system now through the 11th?

084C1639-8842-45F5-B322-CECF690B18C9.thumb.jpeg.626965d92274f805e4672f8a8f1c2437.jpeg

floop-gfs-2022010712.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.639a64b788f8d625c5f9bfbd68460e07.gif

Same here?

0DEB34F9-9DDD-4805-8CF9-04390318DE37.thumb.jpeg.cacd2b9250386bc1f9d824b1548b95eb.jpeg

floop-gfs-2022010900.sfct_anom.conus.gif.a06a7b75b8f72aefb451824d8cc02b2b.gif

While on the topic of critiquing my LR call (but not the ones I've been correct on)...did the GL's glacier expand??  Let's see here...Dec 27th snow cover...I'm not perfect, far from it...but to give an advance notice or prediction 10+ days out that the snow cover could expand S/SE over the MW was a pretty darn good call.  

nsm_depth_2021122705_National.jpg

 

JAN 2nd Snow cover...

nsm_depth_2022010205_National.jpg

 

 

JAN 7th Snow cover...

nsm_depth_2022010705_National.jpg

 

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