It suggests there will be a lot of Indian Ocean tropical forcing this summer (RMMs looping in phases 1-4). How that translates into the extratropics depends on the time of year and the ENSO evolution.
We have modest +dAAMt ongoing with the MJO propagating through the WHEM, so when the current pattern break down at least it will be into something wetter and more progressive. But it will only last for a few weeks given the active MJO/subseasonal forcing(s).
The dryness so far this spring is a result of residual niño elements in the general circulation (STJ, relatively higher AAM equatorward in-situ w/rt climatology) and seasonally-dependent projection(s) of the MJO. But I don’t see anything suggesting this year will be a dry tinderbox up there. Usually you’d see those red flags showing up in the tropics/general circulation by now, if so.
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