Tom Posted January 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 06z NAM on board with a little "something" for Thursday... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Buckle up, Giddy up....sharpen up those pencils...the GL's/MW region is in for a fun ride and it all begins this week... @someweatherdudeI can understand your frustration, believe me man, there have been a few winters that just sucked here in Chicago as well. I can totally see why your just not feeling it this season. I'm sticking with my guns that this month will deliver for your area and the S MW. All signs I look for point that way and the models are certainly backing up support to that idea. This gives me confidence in my call that you will benefit from at least 1 big storm by months end. The upcoming pattern that is unfolding is ripe for the S MW and eastern Sub. Case in point, the 0z EPS keeps heading bolder on the cold/snow post 15th (a few days later for KC peeps)...on a side note, the eastern GL's never go AN temp wise. MI peeps must be happy to see that! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 I'll post some LR clues that suggest + results for cold to return to our Sub: #1) Crashing SOI... #2) Blocking, Blocking, Blocking...stout -EPO/-WPO, (+) PNA trending towards slightly (-) in the Week 2 period... #3) Neutral to (-) AO/NAO combo... #4) The BSR & East Asian Rule both continue to be lock step that the extended pattern into the early part of FEB remains on the cold/wintry theme. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Temperatures held steady overnight and the overnight low here was 13 at this time there is some very light snow falling with a temperature of 14. Temperatures are forecasted to hold steady today as the high is guessed at 15. The snow on the ground has compacted down to 8" here as of this morning. All in all this week looks to he ho-mum with not a lot happing other than a warm up with the winds expected early in the warm up it will not feel all that warm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Currently sitting at -19.5. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 13 degrees with inconsistent light tiny-flaked flurries. Feels like winter. Hopefully we get about freezing this week so I can finish clearing my driveway. I hate that I couldn't get it all clear before it compacted into ice due to being sick all last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 It's been a while since I've read an AFD from LOT discussing the pattern ahead... Quote .LONG TERM... Updated at 326 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022 Wednesday through Sunday... Broad upper-level northwesterly flow will prevail from the middle of next week onward as a low-level baroclinic zone becomes established from the Dakotas to the Mid-Atlantic states. Such a regime typically acts as a highway for clipper systems in our neck of the woods every 1-2 days, though the baroclinic zone itself may end up rather broad and unfocused (e.g. guidance is presenting plenty of variance in where each clipper will track). Ensemble guidance appears to favor our area on the warm and dry side of the baroclinic zone with temperatures at or above freezing Wednesday through Friday, though confidence is lower than average. The best chance for a clipper impacting our area appears to be next weekend. For now, we will cautiously advertise a dry forecast through Friday keeping in mind chances for snow may need to be introduced earlier as guidance comes into better agreement. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 hours ago, Tom said: While on the topic of critiquing my LR call (but not the ones I've been correct on)...did the GL's glacier expand?? Let's see here...Dec 27th snow cover...I'm not perfect, far from it...but to give an advance notice or prediction 10+ days out that the snow cover could expand S/SE over the MW was a pretty darn good call. JAN 2nd Snow cover... JAN 7th Snow cover... Congratulations. You predicted at least 1/2” of snow would fall somewhere in the MW over the next 2 weeks in freaking January! Still doesn’t change the LRC is garbage. Is it 43, 48, 52, 57, 60, or 65 days in length this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 This winter is running behind last year's dismal showing here in T town. We are sitting at 1.7" of snow compared to 5.1" last year at this time before finishing with 15.5" (norm 17.1"). We've had less than 12" of snow in 5 of the last 7 winters and may be headed for another. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: You can't make this shi* up. I give up. KC snow drought continues. I'm out. I don't have anything nice to say, so I'm done saying anything. Good luck to everyone else (except those in Des Moines). And it’s supposed to be my area that isn’t going to get any white gold coming up, but you’re supposed to be golden… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 Not a surprise to anyone, but here’s confirmation of December’s heat blast. 1/2 the country with it’s top 2 warmest December ever and the country overall with it’s warmest at almost 7 degrees above average Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2022 Report Share Posted January 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Not a surprise to anyone, but here’s confirmation of December’s heat blast. 1/2 the country with it’s top 2 warmest December ever and the country overall with it’s warmest at almost 7 degrees above average Yeah winter is pretty much jan-apr now....if we're lucky lol. Just kinda seems like the seasons have moved a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, james1976 said: Yeah winter is pretty much jan-apr now....if we're lucky lol. Just kinda seems like the seasons have moved a bit. Yep, agree 100% Especially considering how many times I’ve been dying for spring to start in April and May. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 -19 atm....brrrrrrrrr 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 The Midwest December tornado outbreak made the list of billion dollar disasters in 2021. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 12 hours ago, tStacsh said: 13 degrees with inconsistent light tiny-flaked flurries. Feels like winter. Hopefully we get about freezing this week so I can finish clearing my driveway. I hate that I couldn't get it all clear before it compacted into ice due to being sick all last week. Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th. 8 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 -20 at 9:30....wow! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Around the area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th. Man, I was literally wondering about you last couple days. That stuff is real. Speedy recovery to you 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th. Hope you feel better soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th. Hope you’re better and don’t have any long term effects. My dad had COVID in December 2020, and then about 3 months later developed tremors in his hands from the COVID that he still has. Forced him to quit working and retire a couple years early. Still doesn’t have his taste and smell fully back either. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 hours ago, jaster220 said: Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th. Praying for a speedy and full recovery Jaster...I'm very sorry to hear about your sickness with the RONA...I'll be thinking of you my friend. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 hours ago, jaster220 said: Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th. I hope you get better soon. Take care 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 The cloud cover held the temperatures up last night and the low both here and officially at GRR was +9. There was a trace of new snow fall the official January total still stands at 19.0" for the season it remains at 38.8" and here at my house there is 7.5" of snow on the ground. At this time it is cloudy and 13 here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 This pattern we are currently in is a great set-up for i-95 corridor for major winterstorms. Matter of time b4 they get clobbered. Meanwhile, a fast little disturbance might give my area a little snow Wednesday/Wed nite. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 @jaster220feel better bud! We need ya back here!!!! 3 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 12 hours ago, jaster220 said: Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th. No good, Hope you have a speedy recovery! I had a feeling when you haven't been posting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 12 hours ago, jaster220 said: Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th. Hope you get past this quickly! If you need a warmer, snowless, more spring-like climate to help you recover you can always come here! 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Got to 15 degrees here this morning. 3rd coolest low so far in the season but no fog around. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks like winter is over for now in SMI. Bummer. Nothing but cold and dry. No snow coming. Bring on spring I guess after the 2 weeks of cold and boring. Enjoy it everyone else. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Looks like winter is over for now in SMI. Bummer. Nothing but cold and dry. No snow coming. Bring on spring I guess after the 2 weeks of cold and boring. Enjoy it everyone else. Euro not showing any real measurable snowfall for Ashland KY but that can change. The area I used to live in was no stranger to late season snowstorms. There were a few winters the 3rd-4th weeks of February did some pretty good ones. I wouldn't quit until middle of March. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, tStacsh said: Looks like winter is over for now in SMI. Bummer. Nothing but cold and dry. No snow coming. Bring on spring I guess after the 2 weeks of cold and boring. Enjoy it everyone else. Are you serious! Lol, you just got blitzed with 12”+ of snow and now your complaining? Sheesh, don’t get greedy bud! Would you rather have a warm cutter and wipe your snow pack and then leave you with brown grass for a couple weeks? I would sit back and enjoy real winter scenery. NW Flow also would increase LES chances. I’d gladly switch places with you. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Have not posted at all so far this winter at it has been lackluster for many except for the Norther Tier States. Looks the same get hit again and Iowa might get into the action this weekend but Chi-Town will again get shutout. Not much happening the next 14 days. so most likely our only hope will be Frebruary if we are to see anything substantial. Cold and dry sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, Tom said: Are you serious! Lol, you just got blitzed with 12”+ of snow and now your complaining? Sheesh, don’t get greedy bud! Would you rather have a warm cutter and wipe your snow pack and then leave you with brown grass for a couple weeks? I would sit back and enjoy real winter scenery. NW Flow also would increase LES chances. I’d gladly switch places with you. Come on, I'm trying to jinx the weather gods! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Come on, I'm trying to jinx the weather gods! Reverse psychology…I get it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tom said: Reverse psychology…I get it! SMI has the Canadian and the Euro on it's side. The GFS, not so much. That's a good thing in the medium to long range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 I've finally risen above freezing. This is the first time since 12/24, which is actually not that long if you think about it. 33*F. 2 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 Made it to 54.7 today/20 degrees above average. First of what should be 3 consecutive days above 50 before the surprise storm hits? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Made it to 54.7 today/20 degrees above average. First of what should be 3 consecutive days above 50 before the surprise storm hits? It's only a surprise storm if it's not in the forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2022 Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 42 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: I've finally risen above freezing. This is the first time since 12/24, which is actually not that long if you think about it. 33*F. Break out the shorts. That must seem very balmy compare to what you have been dealing w. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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