January 2022 Observations & Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

Break out the shorts. That must seem very balmy compare to what you have been dealing w.

It is. I'm taking advantage of it to get some cleaning and other outdoor work done. Not exactly pleasant walking to the other side of the complex where the dumpster is and back when it's subzero.

[tStacsh]

Pretty depressing for the coldest days of the year and the "dead" of winter.  

- Much of the next 7 days features dry weather -

We will be in a northwest flow much of the next 7 days with
shortwaves rotating through the area at times. The issue is that
moisture is not very deep and the systems are rather weak. A
shortwave moves through on Thursday and could see additional light
snow or flurries with it, but again any amounts would be very
light. The clipper that looked like it may impact the area Friday
night into Saturday is now forecast to move almost due south in
the Plains, so its precipitation misses us to the west. Maybe the
best looking wave of the forecast is out on Sunday night into
Monday, but it looks to lose strength in favor of a strong east
coast system. So, its precipitation also ends up being light.
Bottom line is no major systems are expected to affect our area
through next Tuesday. We will end up slightly above normal for
temperatures the next 2 days and the a colder than normal signal
is in place over the weekend and into next week.

[Hawkeye]

We were able to hit 40º in the city this afternoon, a bit higher than expected.  Wednesday's high has also been raised a bit.  We will certainly be melting some snow.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Sioux City and Sioux Falls set new record highs today in the 50s.

Also saw that Texas, which set it's warmest December on record, was an incredible 12 degrees above normal for the month of December!

[Minny_Weather]

High yesterday: +2

High today: 34

[Minny_Weather]

41 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Sioux City and Sioux Falls set new record highs today in the 50s.

Amazing what a deep snowpack will do. Without a doubt Fargo would have been well into the 40s today if not for the foot we have on the ground.

[Niko]

Weak disturbance rolling on through tomorrow. I am only expecting an inch or 2 at the very most. I'll take it and run. The more wintry it looks w/ this arctic air over me, the better.

• Wednesday
   

  

  Mostly Cloudy
  then Snow
  Likely

  High: 36 °F

• Wednesday
  Night

  

  Snow Likely

  Low: 26 °F

[Tom]

7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Amazing what a deep snowpack will do. Without a doubt Fargo would have been well into the 40s today if not for the foot we have on the ground.

Enjoy this "pullback" bc your gonna be back in the friggin' Deep Freezer for a long period of time my friend....cherrish this warm spell...I dunno how you are acclimated to this type of weather. My bones would be frozen over!

 

[Tom]

If the clipper delivers the goods as predicted, the #MWGlacier shall expand and hold itself together through the extended...while we all wait for our next snow system, I'm always in the search for anything meaningful.  

 

 

The next system on deck appears to be a northern stream clipper for next Tue/Wed hitting the same places up north and possibly down towards I-80....both Euro/GGEM showing the potential...this has eyes for @Madtown @Beltrami Island

 

[Grizzcoat]

Long range GFS and Euro Control show very below avg -to even brutal air mass-  even for late JAN. Right now DSM is 23rd for coldest JAN recorded and very likely to see coldest Jan since 1994. ( areas in the E.Dakotas to I-Falls are top 5 to top 10.)The 06Z GFS goes ballistic cold and is usually biased cold-- but even if it will likely be coldest Jan since 1994 and perhaps 1982-- that with a potential top 10-15 snow month is an amazing turn around from the torch of DEC. It will likely overcome the +7 - to +9 for many reading of DEC  and make the 2 month winter so far below normal. And then comes FEB which in the last 15 years has been the coldest month of the 12 compared to avg by a long shot. It does seem that DEC's lately are laying an egg only to have a big time come back mid-late winter compared to avg- esp in snowfall for DSM. DSM snowfall has increased 4 inches annually in the last 20 years. (since the 1971-2000 30 year means) and it's still going up this decade mainly due to last years 57+ inches.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Long range GFS and Euro Control show very below avg -to even brutal air mass-  even for late JAN. Right now DSM is 23rd for coldest JAN recorded and very likely to see coldest Jan since 1994. ( areas in the E.Dakotas to I-Falls are top 5 to top 10.)The 06Z GFS goes ballistic cold and is usually biased cold-- but even if it will likely be coldest Jan since 1994 and perhaps 1982-- that with a potential top 10-15 snow month is an amazing turn around from the torch of DEC. It will likely overcome the +7 - to +9 for many reading of DEC  and make the 2 month winter so far below normal. And then comes FEB which in the last 15 years has been the coldest month of the 12 compared to avg by a long shot. It does seem that DEC's lately are laying an egg only to have a big time come back mid-late winter compared to avg- esp in snowfall for DSM. DSM snowfall has increased 4 inches annually in the last 20 years. (since the 1971-2000 30 year means) and it's still going up this decade mainly due to last years 57+ inches.

Great analysis Grizz!  I was thinking about this just the other day and made comments that a memorable flip is poised to happen this month, esp around the GL’s region and parts of the MW.  It’s really fascinating how nature can turnaround when ALL things align.  Cheers to a snow-filled & cold JAN-FEB!

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Great analysis Grizz!  I was thinking about this just the other day and made comments that a memorable flip is poised to happen this month, esp around the GL’s region and parts of the MW.  It’s really fascinating how nature can turnaround when ALL things align.  Cheers to a snow-filled & cold JAN-FEB!

Local met is buying in on an impressive arctic outbreak.  But doesn't think it will last long because of typical second year La Nina.  493 thickness is nothing to sneeze at in Grand Rapids.   

[westMJim]

The temperature rose to 35 here overnight and it now has dropped some and is 29 here. There is still around 6" of snow on the ground here in my yard. We are now in the mist of the mid winter doldrums. As it looks cold but very dry for the next 7 to 10 days at least. I went outside for a walk yesterday and in my area one has to be very careful walking as the roads now have a solid hard pack snow cover that is almost ice. So until that clears up a little it will be down stairs on the treadmill and the stationary bike. For some reason I really do not like using either one but I think I will for the time being.
 

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Local met is buying in on an impressive arctic outbreak.  But doesn't think it will last long because of typical second year La Nina.  493 thickness is nothing to sneeze at in Grand Rapids.

This got my attention. So going back to 1950 the following years had back-to-back La Nina’s 1955/56, 1971/72,1975/76,1984/85, 1999/00, 2011/12 and 2017/18. Note the 2^nd year listed is the 2^nd winter of the event so for 1955/56 the 1^st La Nina was in 1954/55 and the 2^nd one was 1955/56. Now of the 7 times there were back-to-back La Nina’s most had a period of very cold weather. Now how long did that cold last? Well in 1956 and 1972 it was cold in January, February, and March. 1976 January was cold but February was mild. In 1985 it was cold and snowy in January and February. In 2000 it was cold in January but mild in February in 2012 it was warm the whole winter and summer started in March and in 2018 there were only brief cold periods in January and February. So bottom line is that of the 7 times we had back to back La Nina’s since 1950 the 2^nd winter had 3 with longer cold periods and 6 had at least one colder period and one was mild for the whole winter season. As for snow fall the range of the 7 winters was from a high of 79.8” in 1955/56 to a low of 51.2” in 2011/12. Over the 7 winters the average at Grand Rapids was 68.7”.  So will it warm up in February? Maybe. 

[tStacsh]

58 minutes ago, westMJim said:

This got my attention. So going back to 1950 the following years had back-to-back La Nina’s 1955/56, 1971/72,1975/76,1984/85, 1999/00, 2011/12 and 2017/18. Note the 2^nd year listed is the 2^nd winter of the event so for 1955/56 the 1^st La Nina was in 1954/55 and the 2^nd one was 1955/56. Now of the 7 times there were back-to-back La Nina’s most had a period of very cold weather. Now how long did that cold last? Well in 1956 and 1972 it was cold in January, February, and March. 1976 January was cold but February was mild. In 1985 it was cold and snowy in January and February. In 2000 it was cold in January but mild in February in 2012 it was warm the whole winter and summer started in March and in 2018 there were only brief cold periods in January and February. So bottom line is that of the 7 times we had back to back La Nina’s since 1950 the 2^nd winter had 3 with longer cold periods and 6 had at least one colder period and one was mild for the whole winter season. As for snow fall the range of the 7 winters was from a high of 79.8” in 1955/56 to a low of 51.2” in 2011/12. Over the 7 winters the average at Grand Rapids was 68.7”.  So will it warm up in February? Maybe. 

Good info.  and I hope so, after January I'm done with winter, outside of a major snowstorm I start losing interest and focus ahead to spring weather.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Now my area might get something out of the next snow "event". Still shows more in Tennessee. 

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Now my area might get something out of the next snow "event". Still shows more in Tennessee. 

I have a client in Bristol, TN and they look to get their first legit snowstorm of the season...

[Hawkeye]

The latest GFS shows nothing but cold and dry for the rest of the month, around here, following this weekend's storm.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Hit 56.1 degrees here today IMBY.

[Tom]

Hit 43F today and the Sun poked out a couple hours ago.  Snow pack has def shrunk but not as much as I thought it would.  Prob down to 2” at the moment. Really hoping to score some snow from the lake later this week bc other than that there isn’t much going on here till possibly Tue/We’d.

[Niko]

Look at how close that precip is getting towards S MI. It clips me w/ 3-4inches. This used to be way more east. Looks like it has come west quite a bit. This looks like a near miss for the EC and more of an interior snowstorm w/ hvy amounts of snow. Again, looks like it brushes SEMI.

[Clinton]

12z GEFS teleconnections 

[Grizzcoat]

^^ wow on the AO.

[Madtown]

What are models saying for temps...How low are we going...

[OmahaSnowFan]

Meh. Taking tonight’s 0Z GFS run shows no big storms after Friday/Saturday’s storm and progressive cold/warm shots to finish the month.

There’s been more sustained cold in the long range on recent runs, but as has been noted, nothing to get excited over for obvious big storms.

[Grizzcoat]

3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Meh. Taking tonight’s 0Z GFS run shows no big storms after Friday/Saturday’s storm and progressive cold/warm shots to finish the month.

There’s been more sustained cold in the long range on recent runs, but as has been noted, nothing to get excited over for obvious big storms.

Euro and it's control are totally different. Not saying they are correct, but if the AO dips that low- models are going to have difficulty in latching on to what it means. Nearly off the charts.  Same thing happened late last JAN with epic Cold in early FEB. NOT calling for that- as this recent GFS (runs) are a pullback from before and the GFS is my calling card with temps. It has outperformed the Euro long range over the years in temps. We shall see.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro and it's control are totally different. Not saying they are correct, but if the AO dips that low- models are going to have difficulty in latching on to what it means. Nearly off the charts.  Same thing happened late last JAN with epic Cold in early FEB. NOT calling for that- as this recent GFS (runs) are a pullback from before and the GFS is my calling card with temps. It has outperformed the Euro long range over the years in temps. We shall see.

GFS bias in this type of pattern of rushing the trough farther E is showing itself while the EPS is centered farther west and has the cold smack over the MW region, similar to the late JAN' 19 PV Outbreak.  You can see how much warmer the GEFS are across the Plains states compared to the EPS.  The EPS is also seeing more snow in the Plains compared to the GEFS bc the GEFS always show storms off the EC in this type of pattern.

 

 

 

I feel much more optimistic for snow chance as the cold becomes entrenched in the pattern heading later next week before the real deal cold comes.  I remember vividly right before the JAN' 19 blitz we had a potent lead clipper drop 4-6" and then came the cold.  I see a similar pattern during the 21st-23rd period (my original call was 19th-21st).  Last night's 0z Euro sorta flashed that system as did the 0z GGEM.  IMO, we will be entering a more active flow to finish off JAN.

 

[Tom]

The JMA Weeklies are agreeing in the LR with the CFSv2 that pretty much our entire Sub will be heading into a long lasting cold snap.  In fact, the CFSv2 is trending away from the warmth in FEB.  I will say, that if you follow the BSR it really does show some validity that the trough over the Eastern CONUS should hold up deeper into FEB.  I'd say about a week or more ago, the CFSv2 was backing off the cold over the eastern SUB and rushing the return of the -PNA but has since veered away from the SER.  It does really look like the - EPO pattern has legs as does a more + to neutral PNA....

 

 

JMA Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...

 

Temp/Precip...wet signal over the central Plains/MW into OHV/GL's....

 

 

The CFSv2 for the next 30 days...

[Minny_Weather]

Freezing drizzle is making road conditions rather complex in W MN this morning. 26°F.

[westMJim]

The winter doldrums will continue here for the next week or so if not more. Here in Michigan we are just in the wrong place for any snow at this time. There will be snow to the west of us and a lot of snow to the east of us but not for us. The overnight low here and the official low at GRR was just 31 and at this time it is cloudy and 31 here.

[Hawkeye]

All the New Year's snow cover is now gone from southern and eastern Iowa.  All that is left is the December 28th snow that fell along and north of a Cedar Rapids to the Quad Cities line.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Already at 52.0 today. 3rd day in a row over 50. I was looking at my weather station data and noticed a "cool" thing last night. At 930p we had dropped to 33.3 IMBY. Then the temp started rising rather substantially quickly and one hour later at 1030p at night we were back up to 41.0 degrees.

I looked at my wind readings which a lot of time will tell the picture of what happened (winds going from calm to blowing or a change in direction), but my anemometer showed none of that and showed calm winds during that hour.

Also we've had already had a 64.7 degree difference between our lowest low (-8.6) and warmest high (56.1) the first 13 days of January.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had a high of 53 and looks like it may have sprinkled or lightly rained just recently out there.

[Clinton]

I thought I would make a run at 60 today but feel short and topped out at 55. 

[westMJim]

The temperature held in the low 30's most of last night but now the colder air in filtering in and it is now down to 23 here with cloudy skies. It still looks cold and dry for the foreseeable future. In looking at past years this is kind of a rare pattern with cold with little snow here in January. I am sure it has happened but it is not common. It is more common in February after the lakes froze up more. 

[tStacsh]

22 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The temperature held in the low 30's most of last night but now the colder air in filtering in and it is now down to 23 here with cloudy skies. It still looks cold and dry for the foreseeable future. In looking at past years this is kind of a rare pattern with cold with little snow here in January. I am sure it has happened but it is not common. It is more common in February after the lakes froze up more. 

Quite the boring pattern for sure.  I am down to 5" snow depth.  Cold and dry looks like the for the foreseeable future.  It will be close to February before the pattern could change.  Bring on Spring!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Nothing but a few clippers and alternating warm and cold surges the rest of the month.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Nothing but a few clippers and alternating warm and cold surges the rest of the month.

Lots of NW flow

[gabel23]

The tornado outbreak is due in around Valentine’s Day; that’s how I’m gonna judge the LRC this year. If you go by the 60-65 day cycle, which I think Gary mentioned was this years range, would give my area the best chance at a major system. Insane what a year makes, last year at this time had a total of 15” of snow. This year I’m sitting at 2”! We had a lot of northwest flow in November; that’s what is showing up in the long range….

[OmahaSnowFan]

AO forecast seems to have changed it’s tune from sharply negative to neutral.