Tom Posted January 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 hours ago, gabel23 said: The tornado outbreak is due in around Valentine’s Day; that’s how I’m gonna judge the LRC this year. If you go by the 60-65 day cycle, which I think Gary mentioned was this years range, would give my area the best chance at a major system. Insane what a year makes, last year at this time had a total of 15” of snow. This year I’m sitting at 2”! We had a lot of northwest flow in November; that’s what is showing up in the long range…. This is precisely what is dialing up but remains to be seen is how much influence the teleconnections can support systems to form farther west over the central Sub. Look what is happening now with our current system. Models were not showing anything in the extended period for your area until the blocking showed up. IMO, I'm still predicting 1 or possibly 2 storms to form in the South/Central Plains before the month is over. I just got this gut feeling about the Split Flow pattern that will develop in the extended will deliver more in the way of formidable systems than what we saw in NOV. Sure, I see some NW Flow clippers that will prob target our region out east over the next 10 days or so but I see models are beginning to sniff out the bigger potential the week of the 23rd. The BSR and LRC are over-lapping with systems that are on my calendar. Looking at my notes from back in late NOV there were a couple cut-off systems in the SW/Baja region that ejected out into the Plains states. They weren't influential back then but I see this part of the LRC to pay dividends this go-around later this month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2022 Report Share Posted January 15, 2022 Incredible 4 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 15, 2022 Report Share Posted January 15, 2022 delete Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2022 Report Share Posted January 15, 2022 DMX all ready has -13F in the grids for next FRI AM. I can't recall a low forecast that cold nearly a week out. The Euro has -25F. I doubt that, but -17 or so is possible. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2022 Report Share Posted January 15, 2022 Fwiw- 18Z GFS is cold-- brutally cold for those with a snowpack. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 Chilly 30's, got to 39 for a high and felt like it dropped when I was out shopping (3pm). Tomorrow is the big day. I'll see how much falls but I doubt we end up in the upper range of snowfall. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 12 hours ago, Madtown said: Incredible The driest snow I have ever been in was about 20:1 water equivalent. How is 140 even possible 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 13 hours ago, Madtown said: Incredible Likley a rookie posted this from DLH NWS. The reason for this is that the All Weather Precipitation Gauge (AWPG) used by ASOS's is horrible at melting snowfall when temps are cold and the snow is dry.Even sucked at KMIW in rather warm temps in the beginning of the event. If you don't believe me - check out these observation from Ames and Marshalltown IA last night- AMES total precipitation (melted down by the AWPG) was .10" KDSM was the other way totally FUBR--shown on the bottom. AWPG suck in the winter. And NWS doesn't care. And most times (not all) it gets entered in the climate because NWS / FAA want automation so bad to save $$. The Des Moines situation was corrected because it has CWO (contract weather observers) -actual humans to augment the crappy ASOS . Officially snow totals for AMES and Marshalltown were 12" and 8" -- but with only .10" and .12" of liquid?? NO WAY. I will not post all the obs- but just the 12Z ob from this morning. Look at the "7"- which is 24 hour total precipitation (melted snow etc_ KAMW 151153Z AUTO 03014G22KT 2 1/2SM HZ CLR M11/M14 A3037 RMK AO2 SLP296 60000 70010 T11061139 11072 21106 53024 - KMIW 151153Z AUTO 03016KT 1 1/4SM HZ FEW013 BKN050 M11/M14 A3035 RMK AO2 SLP295 60000 70012 T11111139 11078 21111 53020 $ KDSM 151154Z 03015KT 8SM -SN BKN014 OVC042 M09/M12 A3033 RMK AO2 PK WND 03030/1101 SLP284 4/013 DRSN P0024 60150 70253 T10891117 11067 21089 53025 $ So KDSM saw 1.50" of melted snow from midnight to 6am and 2.53" in 24 hours? It long story and I will stop here-- 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 ^^ If anyone wants to know about ASOS's and AWOS's and how they work ( or don't) etc.. look me up. Been working with them for 25 years. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 Finally had a chance to get out on the sled. Conditions are pretty good. Nothing spectacular snow depth wise, but heck of a lot better than any time last year. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 Where’s the pattern flip with the big storms and brutal cold to end the month? Or is it going to stay in ND, MN, WI, and MI? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 Latest 0z GEFS showing the southern stream potential as we close out JAN.... @OmahaSnowFan not so kind for you but others who have been missed (INDY and MBY) are in the corridor...btw, I love how you post 1 off GFS long range runs like they actually verify. Take a gander at the GEFS as they do suggest a more conducive pattern for snow potential to close out JAN. The CFSv2 is trending better and showing the colder pattern retrograding west in the later parts of the month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 With clear skies the overnight low so far here has been +2. It was a kind of rare January day here yesterday with a reported 100% of sunshine. While there is a chance of some snow it still don't look like it will be a lot of snow here in Grand Rapids and to the east. Most of the snow this next week with be near the lake shore in a NW flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 Beautiful looking out across the farm this morning with a little snow cover and some fog. Here is KC statistics for the halfway point of meteorological winter, lets make it a better second half. Halfway report: Yesterday (1/15) we officially made it halfway through meteorological Winter. Thus far we are 6.7 degrees above normal & currently the 6th warmest on 134-year record. We've had 1.01" of precip for the 27th driest. and we've had 2.4" of snow...the 29th least snowy. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 At least in the area of precipitation it seems to have been plentiful in Kentucky but I bet December was a pretty warm one. The 70 degree occurrences happened over the course of last month rather than them landing on one odd day (isn't that more the normal thing?). Also having 70 on Christmas is, definitely not the same thing as having 70 first week of December. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 What's your take on the Tues. clipper up this way Tom. Looks like the GFS is the southern outlier atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 I've been up since 7am (it's as overcast as can be), we haven't had "CLR" in a couple days. Ashland Airport at 9am was saying it with this coming on radar. lol Someone should do a quality check on the sensor. 3 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 59 minutes ago, Madtown said: What's your take on the Tues. clipper up this way Tom. Looks like the GFS is the southern outlier atm. 3-6” with possibly more if the lake influences totals up your way. Nice refresher on the way for the trials. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 10 hours ago, Tom said: Latest 0z GEFS showing the southern stream potential as we close out JAN.... @OmahaSnowFan not so kind for you but others who have been missed (INDY and MBY) are in the corridor...btw, I love how you post 1 off GFS long range runs like they actually verify. Take a gander at the GEFS as they do suggest a more conducive pattern for snow potential to close out JAN. The CFSv2 is trending better and showing the colder pattern retrograding west in the later parts of the month. Btw I’m not the only one that’s noticed NW flow dominating the pattern the rest of the month. Not to mention, this isn’t some fluke run. The operational models have shown the same general pattern on the majority of their runs. I can pull them if you’d like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 I guess when Tom says most of us, it means everyone except Omaha, NE. Omadome!!! I think it’s time to admit that for whatever reason, the long range models and methods like LRC haven’t worked the majority of this fall and winter. Thus why we’ve seen records smashed for warmth and no snow to way below average snow for the majority of this forum. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said: The driest snow I have ever been in was about 20:1 water equivalent. How is 140 even possible I was here in Duluth for it! It was insanely fluffy. Like, I drove on it without any sort of issue. It was not wet at all. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 @OmahaSnowFan why don’t you try forecasting for once instead of obsessing over the accuracy of Tom’s. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 I like the nice blown up graphics from the local news pages. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 33 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I guess when Tom says most of us, it means everyone except Omaha, NE. Omadome!!! I think it’s time to admit that for whatever reason, the long range models and methods like LRC haven’t worked the majority of this fall and winter. Thus why we’ve seen records smashed for warmth and no snow to way below average snow for the majority of this forum. 14th-16th system...Check...Hudson Bay Block & slow mover...Check...Sustained Cold...Check....Visits from the Polar Vortex are coming later this week and into Next week...NW Flow will produce several systems to traverse the GL's (1st one this Wed/Thu) the second system next weekend...Check...you got anything else??? I don't see to many people in IA/KC/MN/WI complaining about the snow they have OTG, esp the Big Snow that just hit them. Meanwhile, my snow cover is sitting at 1" and grass showing up. I'm not being a "debbie downer" bc that's not my DNA. I am an optimist at heart and always seek what is fun and exciting during the winter months. That's why I post the way I do but I also do suggest (at times) bad patterns when they show up in the LR. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 @Madtown @westMJim and GRR crew look good for some refresher snows this week...maybe @Beltrami Island?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 Today's Euro has several low temps in the teens below zero (with a 20s below Friday morning) from Thursday through next week. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 Sleet coming down. Looked like a tiny bit of slop was trying to fall, too warm to stick. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: @Madtown @westMJim and GRR crew look good for some refresher snows this week...maybe @Beltrami Island?? Hope so. Looks dry. Haven’t had measurable snow since Jan 6th. And now looking at about a 2 week stretch in the middle of January without any. That’s really bad and almost unprecedented for here. Especially with the temps cooperating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 It's sad to know that it's been so cold, if we actually had a base this winter would have been amazing so far, because we would have hardly lost anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 No melting here today as clouds and fog have kept temps well under the forecasted high of 34, currently 25. The week ahead shows my snow getting nuked on Tuesday before more artic air moves in Wednesday including lows near 0 Thursday. Very impressive shot of cold given there wont be any snow cover at that time. Posable clipper train riding the edge of the artic air later next weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 Changed from heavy sleet to wet flakes. It's a mix so it may be an hour or so before real accumulation. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 I like the facebook comments on news pages, folks are calling bust on the event just as places are switching to snow. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 16, 2022 Report Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: 14th-16th system...Check...Hudson Bay Block & slow mover...Check...Sustained Cold...Check....Visits from the Polar Vortex are coming later this week and into Next week...NW Flow will produce several systems to traverse the GL's (1st one this Wed/Thu) the second system next weekend...Check...you got anything else??? I don't see to many people in IA/KC/MN/WI complaining about the snow they have OTG, esp the Big Snow that just hit them. Meanwhile, my snow cover is sitting at 1" and grass showing up. I'm not being a "debbie downer" bc that's not my DNA. I am an optimist at heart and always seek what is fun and exciting during the winter months. That's why I post the way I do but I also do suggest (at times) bad patterns when they show up in the LR. Tom, Good work, buddy. Nailed the storm for the 14th to 16th, here in KC officially I think KCI had 3.2 inches. I recorded 4.3 inches on the NE side of KC. Could have been much more, but, of course, we live in KC and something always has to mess up a big snow storm. We had .35 inches of rain on the front end of the storm. That could have been 4 more inches of snow. Anyhow, yesterday morning had heavy snow and wind gust to 35mph, quite the winter scene!!! Next up....clipper machine and some shots of some very cold air. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2022 I’m getting a nice burst of snow, good sized dendrites…a fresh coating with a temp of 23F. I love seeing it snow like this! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 17, 2022 Report Share Posted January 17, 2022 We have an accumulation out there, but there hasn't been any considerably heavy snow to my standards. At most a couple inches in Ashland. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 17, 2022 Report Share Posted January 17, 2022 3" here and somebody actually reported 4" in downtown! 4 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2022 I have some friends that live in Akron, OH (just SE of CLE) and last evening a very intense band moved through that was dumping snow at the rate of 2"+/hr. It's amazing to see how these Nor' Easter's have a life of their own and can tap such vast amounts of moisture from the ATL. I saw a snow report of 5.5" in 2 hours near Buffalo, NY from 11:00pm - 1:00am. My goodness, I'd love to experience one of those bands for hours on end. Meantime, a weak wave came through last evening and dropped another 0.2" of snow officially at ORD. These little episodes of snow are fun to watch but I'm yearning for that big one. I know its coming...just a matter of when... let's go mother nature! So far, ORD has picked up 4.7" which is about 1" BN for the month and a departure of 6.3" for the season. One clipper can make that up in a hurry so let's see how the remainder of this month unfolds. I can see how this season is evolving and knowing how the past few years have ended up being back-loaded seasons (for the most part), esp around here, my gut says that we still have a lot of winter left to go. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 17, 2022 Report Share Posted January 17, 2022 It got a little deeper since posting. Looks like another 2" on top of last report. 3 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2022 @Clinton, you asked me about the 25th/26th system that's due and it is certainly showing up on the models. I think this one is more or less going to be another one of those interesting systems that have the potential to phase with both streams. We have been having difficulty doing so in previous cycles but now that we will have some blocking in place and a better flow there is a 50/50 chance to see this system phase just like the previous one did. Another Hybrid?? The 0z Euro/Canadian are both showing a strong clipper system while the GFS is a tad weaker. Let's see how the models handle the energy that cuts off in the SW. This was one of the systems (of the two) that I was predicting to target the MW and Eastern Sub the Week of the 23rd. BTW, the ensembles are looking quite intriguing to finish off the month. My original call of at least 1 or 2 storms to hit KC and your area before months end are looking better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 17, 2022 Report Share Posted January 17, 2022 The overnight low here was 17 the temperatures have been rising since 2 AM and now it is up to 26 here with cloudy skies. The old snow cover here is now showing its age. While it has been a long time since we have had a new snow fall the old snow on the back roads are now just a sheet of hard pack snow and ice. I am now down to 3.5" of snow on the ground here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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