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January 2022 Observations & Discussion


Tom

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2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Anyone concerned on that first week of feb and a torch?

Transient for the 1st few days across the eastern Sub while the North and West members see the cold bleed south post 2nd of Feb.  IMO, how I see it for the first few days of Feb is sorta what we saw in early DEC which sent a lead wave across the Upper MW/N GL's and pushed warmth up into the lower lakes/MW followed by a secondary piece that will ride up the frontal boundary around the 4th/5th.  It'll be quite active following these first few days for our region.  I'm actually pretty confident about an AN snow month for a lot of us around the GL's/MW next month.

 

 

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Oh my, what an astounding flip in the North American 500mb pattern in the Week 2 period off tonight's 0z EPS.  I mean, come on...you go from a stout -PNA/SER signal to now showing a lot more trough???  Crazy volatility. I suspect it's having major issues with the MJO.  While the data rolls in, I'm curious to see what the new MJO run will look like.  The JMA has been rock steady sending it into Phase 2/3 and going in all alone on this idea while every other model sending the MJO into the warm Phases of 4/5.

 

 

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gif

 

Check out the difference from just 24 hours ago...

 

2.png

 

vs....I'm also paying attn to the models bias in the NE PAC where it is now seeing a -EPO signal (aka West Coast Ridge).  

3.png

 

The next big ticket system of significance has been showing up on all the models as open up FEB.  Looks like Ground Hog Day will be effected.  This should produce a Big Dog and I expect some shifts in the coming days.  The latest 0z EPS is sniffing it out...GL's cutter in the works...

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There was 2.2" of new snow fall yesterday. Overnight just a trace of new snow fell. There is now 6.2" of snow on the ground here. The overnight low and current temperature is 15. That looks to be the official overnight low at GRR as well. Back in both 1967 and again in 1978 late tonight (January 25) was the start of the two biggest Blizzards in my lifetime. Not only were the dates the same but both years the day of the week was the same (Wednesday) 

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Had a little wave come through here overnight and dropped between 1/2-1" of snow.  Not forecasted.  Nice surprise.  Next week, NWS Hastings is hinting at a more active pattern in this area.  

Late in the extended periods...there are some hints for a chance
for more widespread precip starting next Tuesday afternoon...with
several ensemble forecast members hinting at the possibility of
some accumulating snowfall around the 2nd or 3rd of the month as a
large trough of low pressure digs across the west coast. Still a
ways out, but something to keep an eye on beyond today system.
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All models have significant storm/s?   on Feb2/3rd.  Lots of energy.  Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  As of now it looks like anywhere from rain to snow, heavy Rainer, or significant snow here.  Still a week out.   Wouldn't mind a brief warmup so I can clear my driveway of ice!   No January thaw this year.  

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Next week's system will be a nail biter, that's for sure. It is still a week away, so we will see what happens, but overall, considering this is a very potent system, models like to paint this into a soaker for some. Tons of GOM moisture w/ this one.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here is where Grand Rapids is at so far this January and winter season. For January as of yesterday AM January total snow fall 23.8". Average for January 1 to the 24th is 17.6" that is +6.2" for this time in January. For meteorological winter the total snow fall as of yesterday AM is 38.4" that is a departure of -4.5" and for the season so far Grand Rapids has recorded  43.6" that is a departure of -2.2". There has been at least 1" of snow on the ground now for 29 days (today will be 30) and at this time it looks very good that that snow will be on the ground for all of January. The last time there was snow on the ground every day in January was in 2014. The mean for this month is now at 25.1 that is a departure of -3.6. The high so far has been 42 and the lowest so far has been +1.

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Despite the call for at least 1 or 2 storms to hit the KC area before the end of the month, the snow hole of most of Nebraska and eastern KS into MO will continue on into February. In fact, it's going to be a pretty boring, dry pattern for most the last week of January.

KC 7 day forecast

Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. North wind around 9 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 10. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 33. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. South southwest wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 37.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 20.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 46.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 31.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 47.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.
 
 

snku_acc.conus.png

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19 hours ago, Tom said:

How much have you received over the past few days?  S WI did pretty good from what I saw.

We did pretty good, probably 3-5 Sunday morning then 2-4 Monday morning. I missed Sunday though, usually they groom everything for the weekend crowd and I was out of town for my sister's birthday. It is really good, light, powdery stuff, excellent for snowboarding and skiing, but after it's groomed it ends up being absolutely nothing, that 5-8 inches probably groomed out to less than an inch.

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2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Latest GFS is a thing of beauty. Cold air gets into the pattern and the storms start flying.

 

Big February here we come!! 

A little late but won't be denied...I sure as heck hope we can score some "share the wealth" systems next month...

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5 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Latest GFS is a thing of beauty. Cold air gets into the pattern and the storms start flying.

 

Big February here we come!! 

Pattern is certainly there.   There is going to be some big winners, and big losers  to start out February.  Consistency among the models is there a week out as well.  Very similar.  Big storm/s incoming.  

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16 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Pattern is certainly there.   There is going to be some big winners, and big losers  to start out February.  Consistency among the models is there a week out as well.  Very similar.  Big storm/s incoming.  

12z GEFS have a much different look than just 12 hours ago...on top of that the cold is pressing...it's interesting bc I noticed today's MJO run has some ensembles hinting towards colder phases instead of going straight beeline into the warm phases from previous runs.  

image.png

 

The CFSv2 goes straight to Phase 3...

CFSO_phase_small.gif

 

The JMA has been rock steady into Phase 2/3...

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gif

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There is a place in Western Kansas, Sharon Springs, that is just getting drilled with heavy snow.  If you look at the radar, a heavy band is basically just sitting over this town and not moving for hours.  Will be interesting to see the final total.  I saw that NWS Goodland said in this band was 2" an hour rates.  Don't see this much in the Central US.

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Cmon Euro.  Now you're just trolling me.  Perfect stripe of nothing right in between 2 large areas of snow.  LOL

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

SE Nebraska sitting in a pretty good spot 7 days out. Never a good sign. Trying to think positive this time around but have seen this one to many times. always looks too dang good from this far out 

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

There is a place in Western Kansas, Sharon Springs, that is just getting drilled with heavy snow.  If you look at the radar, a heavy band is basically just sitting over this town and not moving for hours.  Will be interesting to see the final total.  I saw that NWS Goodland said in this band was 2" an hour rates.  Don't see this much in the Central US.

There are spotter reports of over 20 inches.

I've never measured 12 inches in my life.  Meanwhile, a piddly, barely-noticeable system dropping south through the plains drops 20 inches.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Anyone heading out on the EC this weekend??!! Well, if ya wanna experience a true blizzard, now is your chance. Latest Euro Clobbers the entire I-95 with 18-24”+ of snow for this weekend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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