January 2022 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

We did not come close to the forecasted low temp overnight.  The NWS predicted -22º, but the airport, always a cold spot, only hit -15º, and my yard only hit -11º.  I think our snow is just too old and not deep enough.  

How deep is your snow?

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

How deep is your snow?

Maybe 4-5" in my backyard, but the open field next to my house only has 1-2" because of the strong wind during the last storm.  My neighbor's backyard has a large area of bare grass.  In addition, all the roofs are bare and so is the pavement.

[Cfweather]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

We did not come close to the forecasted low temp overnight.  The NWS predicted -22º, but the airport, always a cold spot, only hit -15º, and my yard only hit -11º.  I think our snow is just too old and not deep enough.  We really need fresh, deep powder to reach the -20s.

Same here in Waterloo.  Was supposed to be -24.  Mby hit -17. I think the airport got to -18?   Haven’t heard for sure yet.  But not even close.   
schools cancelled.  They sure didn’t need to.

[Niko]

Over 3ft for the New York Metro area

[Thunder98]

Lake Michigan ice cover has now caught up to the avg now!

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Lake Michigan ice cover has now caught up to the avg now!

Not a good day for swimming

[Hawkeye]

34 minutes ago, Niko said:

Over 3ft for the New York Metro area

And the GFS has 1-3" for NYC.  Just a bit of a difference.  The Euro has been on the wetter side for NYC.

[Niko]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

And the GFS has 1-3" for NYC.  Just a bit of a difference.  The Euro has been on the wetter side for NYC.

Yep..I saw that. Suicide Watch will be posted soon on the EC. IMHO, this monster is looking very likely to happen, especially for NE, but all of the i-95 corridor is likely to see heavy snow and very strong winds...question is, who gets the heaviest.

[bud2380]

In addition to the 13.7" the GFS drops in my backyard, it has several hours of sleet and some freezing rain.

 

[Hawkeye]

Perhaps we should be starting a new thread for February.  Then, in another day or two start a storm thread?

[tStacsh]

We are going to need a thread.  It's been on the models consistently.  Latest GFS is much more organized storm.   Currently I'd get dry slotted with ICE.   7 days out, I'm ok with that.  Lets bring it south a bit.  

[tStacsh]

28 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yep..I saw that. Suicide Watch will be posted soon on the EC. IMHO, this monster is looking very likely to happen, especially for NE, but all of the i-95 corridor is likely to see heavy snow and very strong winds...question is, who gets the heaviest.

Boston for sure is going to get nailed.  

[james1976]

GFS dream run for IA & WI haha wow

[Clinton]

GFS also has another storm on the heels of the Wednesday storm, produces snow for many.

[tStacsh]

Something big is going to happen next week.  Multiple storms, phasing likely, very cold air to the north.   Very interesting pattern with plenty of energy and moisture.  Do I dare get excited yet?   Going to be at least fun to track and hang on every model run for awhile lol.  With that said, I'm sure to be highly disappointed.  

[hlcater]

Lol I wish.

[Niko]

6 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Boston for sure is going to get nailed.  

 My cousin who lives just outside from B-Town told me this morning that watches have already been put out.

[Niko]

Yep I agree...new threads should be created soon.  Someone do the honors!!

[Niko]

17 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Something big is going to happen next week.  Multiple storms, phasing likely, very cold air to the north.   Very interesting pattern with plenty of energy and moisture.  Do I dare get excited yet?   Going to be at least fun to track and hang on every model run for awhile lol.  With that said, I'm sure to be highly disappointed.  

My forecast yesterday and the day b4 showed ice to rain and then back to snow. Now it shows ice  going to heavy snow. Looks like its getting to be a colder storm, also for a lot of other peeps as well.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yep I agree...new threads should be created soon.  Someone do the honors!!

Done!

 

[Grizzcoat]

Started a FEB thread...

[jaster220]

On 1/24/2022 at 2:12 AM, Tom said:

0z GEFS looking interesting for the Thu/Fri period....more so across the eastern Sub...

 

 

 

This winter, if it's not a clipper it just doesn't verify. DTX has now removed all flakes from tomorrow's gridcast:

[Tom]

The JMA just won't budge with the MJO forecast and now the CFSv2 is onboard.  Will they cave towards the Euro and GEFS?

 

 

Euro stays in the Null phase...today's 12z run should be interesting...

[Grizzcoat]

Hibbing,MN on pace for a top 10 cold JAN. The following is only through the 25th- the -36F this morning will likely take Hibbing to -2.4 to -2.3 depending on the high. Will be close if KHIB can finish strong, but these are some brutal top 10 and even to have chance at it through 26 days is amazing.

the last week at KHIB-

[tStacsh]

Looking at a cold couple inches of snow Sunday for Michigan.  Surprise little system trending stronger.

[Timmy Supercell]

Chilly day. Got to 11 for a low here, just barely broke 30 and now the sun goes down. 

[Tony]

I'm not a big fan of the East Coast but you gotta feel a little bad for them with the turn of events from a Major Blizzard to possibly a couple inches. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Looking at a cold couple inches of snow Sunday for Michigan.  Surprise little system trending stronger.

The hits keep coming…it was just about a week ago and you said “nothing but dry and cold for next two weeks”.  

[Stacsh]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

The hits keep coming…it was just about a week ago and you said “nothing but dry and cold for next two weeks”.  

Well it’s been dry and cold.  The lake helps a little lol

[Andie]

Well, No Texas is 45, damp. Feels a good deal colder.   Same all week.  

It’s made me feel just dreadful.  But I’m a Texas kid used to short sleeves in winter part of the time.   
Low of 31 tonight.  Much the same all week.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Some observations I noticed from my weather station data I keep for my backyard as I work from home on a slow night...

So far this January, our average low has been 10.0 degrees and we've had 14 days with lows in the single digits or below zero, including 4 nights below zero.

Last January, our average low was 21.4 and we only had 2 nights in the single digits with no nights below zero, so it's been much colder overnight this month compared to last year.

However, our average highs have been much more similar. Last year, average high was 37.2 and this year it's been 33.4 degrees.

Also, my station has solar radiation sensor. Around the winter solstice, the strength of the sunlight hitting my station drops all the way down into the 200s w/m2. I noticed though that already the strength of the sun is back up into the 350-450 w/m2, showing how much stronger the sunlight has already become in the last month. In the summer, peak solar radiation most days are around 900 w/m2.

[Tom]

0z Euro showing some snow for those around I-80 on Friday...the wave coming down from the NW interacts with the lake plume into the SE portions of Chicago metro.  I'm wondering if LOT will issue LES watch's for COOK.  Downtown Chitown is looking pretty good.  Might take a day trip down there if this transpires.

[Tom]

The recent cold spell has produced some pretty icy scenery across the shores of Lake Michigan...

 

[Clinton]

I was very surprised to see snow falling this morning, almost a 1/2 inch in mby.  1-3 inch amounts are being reported across the southern half of MO, only flurries were forecasted to fall there and nothing was forecasted for my area.  Maybe it's a sign things are starting to change.

[Hawkeye]

The ECMWF just opened up a bunch of their data and made it free to the public.  Levi Cowan has added it to his site, so now Tropical Tidbits has 3-hr Euro data, including 06z and 18z runs.  There are no precip type or snowfall maps, but a lot of other stuff is there.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I was very surprised to see snow falling this morning, almost a 1/2 inch in mby.  1-3 inch amounts are being reported across the southern half of MO, only flurries were forecasted to fall there and nothing was forecasted for my area.  Maybe it's a sign things are starting to change.

I was thinking the same thing this morning when I saw the radar.  Nature filling in the “snow holes”?

[Niko]

16 hours ago, Tony said:

I'm not a big fan of the East Coast but you gotta feel a little bad for them with the turn of events from a Major Blizzard to possibly a couple inches. 

Wut? There are WSW'S posted all over the EC. The brunt of the storm as it stands right now will be from far eastern sections of L.I and points North and East. Boston gets clobbered and Cape Cod w/ over 2'+. NYC is looking at 6-12"+ and some locales (Northern Queens especially, which is more east) and especially Central Nassau could get more. There will be a lot of beach erosion and major coastal flooding from those strong counterclockwise NE winds. This is why you will never see me own a house right on the shoreline on the EC. Always a good idea to be just a bit inland. Anyways, so far everything is on track, so there is no need to feel sorry for them. Unless, drastic changes happen, then, yes, by all means, big bust and disappointment. In the meantime, fun times for everyone as late January and into February looks like it will be "Rockin" for a lot of peeps here and there....

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
330 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

CTZ005>012-NJZ006-NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179-272230-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
330 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There continues to be greater than usual
  forecast uncertainty with the track of this storm, and the axis
  of heaviest snowfall may shift in subsequent forecast updates.

[Tony]

5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Wut? There are WSW'S posted all over the EC. The brunt of the storm as it stands right now will be from far eastern sections of L.I and points North and East. Boston gets clobbered and Cape Cod w/ over 2'+. NYC is looking at 6-12"+ and some locales (Northern Queens especially, which is more east) and especially Central Nassau could get more. There will be a lot of beach erosion and major coastal flooding from those strong counterclockwise NE winds. This is why you will never see me own a house right on the shoreline on the EC. Always a good idea to be just a bit inland. Anyways, so far everything is on track, so there is no need to feel sorry for them. Unless, drastic changes happen, then, yes, by all means, big bust and disappointment. In the meantime, fun times for everyone as late January and into February looks like it will be "Rockin" for a lot of peeps here and there....

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
330 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

CTZ005>012-NJZ006-NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179-272230-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
330 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There continues to be greater than usual
  forecast uncertainty with the track of this storm, and the axis
  of heaviest snowfall may shift in subsequent forecast updates.

16 hours ago when I posted, the storm was farther east and only giving New York a couple inches but yes, it has corrected back west since then.

[Madtown]

Nice burst of lake effect snow right now.  1/2" so far we need more!

[westMJim]

The clouds have now moved in and there are a few flurries falling the temperature is now 26 with that very light snow falling.