January 2022 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

Can this actually really verify this Winter.......???!!!! The Detroit Magnet will strike real soon!!!!!

[Tom]

What’s your snow depth out in IA?  

[Andie]

I know all of you are focused on the dynamic winter in the central north, however, Texas is entering a very different dynamic. 
Severe to Extreme drought. 
Wildland fire warnings. 

Today we have a front crossing the State and we’re cloudy with rain on the radar.  
News flash. It isn’t raining.  
 

Is there any hope for real rain??

 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Andie said:

I know all of you are focused on the dynamic winter in the central north, however, Texas is entering a very different dynamic. 
Severe to Extreme drought. 
Wildland fire warnings. 

Today we have a front crossing the State and we’re cloudy with rain on the radar.  
News flash. It isn’t raining.  
 

Is there any hope for real rain??

 

This is what the 12z GFS shows for the next 10 days 

[Andie]

I’ll believe it when I see it.  
Clouds tempt and move on, like today. Just not enough “umph” to create measurable rain. 

[westMJim]

They are tiny and just a few of them, but there are snow flurries now falling here with a temperature of 25.

[Cfweather]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

What’s your snow depth out in IA?  

I’m near Waterloo.  We got about 7.5” from the storm, but it was super drifted.  So parts of my lawn are bare (after the warmth) and parts have about 2 feet. 

[Timmy Supercell]

46 degrees, overcast and light echoes approaching. 

The icicles are not going to last the afternoon the way they're dripping right now.

[gimmesnow]

We really need some real snow to freshen up some of the hills around here. The uncooperative November and December has turned the base from that time into solid ice, leaving just a bunch of man made crust on top of ice. Cascade finally has tree skiing, I made it out yesterday, it was a lot of fun. But tree skiing always gets rutted out and icy without natural snow. It can't be groomed and you're stuck depending on natural snow.

[Clinton]

On 1/18/2022 at 8:19 AM, Tom said:

Ya, I've been seeing some interesting runs from the EC over the past couple days.  I think with a -EPO/-WPO and neutral to -PNA there would be enough cold air in the pattern to produce a winter storm in that late month timeframe.  It sucks to see the NAO/AO go back + thought.

12z GEFS really starting to pick up on the storm you mentioned towards the end of the month, some big hitting ensembles at this range.

[CentralNebWeather]

Was just thinking back to last year around this time.  From Jan. 25th-Feb. 15th, we had record amounts of snow and record cold temperatures and wind chills.  We had 4 snow/cold days out of school during those 3 weeks.  Now all we look at is cold temps and brown ground, or record highs and brown ground.  Really going to need a pattern change or this winter will go down as one of the least snowy in this area's history.  Have to hope that February and March can deliver a back loaded winter.

[Clinton]

12z EPS even more bullish on the late month storm.  Both the GFS and Euro Control showing a 1-2 punch anyway lots of time for this to sort out but it appears we will likely have a big dog track next week.

[snowstorm83]

23 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Was just thinking back to last year around this time.  From Jan. 25th-Feb. 15th, we had record amounts of snow and record cold temperatures and wind chills.  We had 4 snow/cold days out of school during those 3 weeks.  Now all we look at is cold temps and brown ground, or record highs and brown ground.  Really going to need a pattern change or this winter will go down as one of the least snowy in this area's history.  Have to hope that February and March can deliver a back loaded winter.

The pattern has been super progressive for us this month. 3 warm days, 2 cold days, 2 warm days, 4 cold days, 3 warm days, very little or no precip inbetween. Rinse and repeat. January will probably end near to slightly below average in Lincoln. I'd rather have last year's warmer Jan with 18.9" of snow. Ok rant over, I'm bored at home with covid lol. Tracking weather while busy with other things will be preferrable compared to this continuing. Hopefully we get ours in Feb/March. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

22 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

The pattern has been super progressive for us this month. 3 warm days, 2 cold days, 2 warm days, 4 cold days, 3 warm days, very little or no precip inbetween. Rinse and repeat. January will probably end near to slightly below average in Lincoln. I'd rather have last year's warmer Jan with 18.9" of snow. Ok rant over, I'm bored at home with covid lol. Tracking weather while busy with other things will be preferrable compared to this continuing. Hopefully we get ours in Feb/March. 

Based on the LRC, we should be warm and dry to end the month. That's the way November ended for us.

[tStacsh]

Still looks cold here in Michigan to end the month.  But the runs aren't bringing the EXTREME cold anymore.  Just colder than normal temps.  Which is good, because that may mean more snow.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

More cool lake effect stuff today in SoDak.

[Timmy Supercell]

I am liking the rain. 37 here.

[Tom]

That long fetched streamer coming off of both LM and Superior near Traverse City is nasty!  It’s gotta be at least 100 miles inland.

[Stacsh]

Huge change on the recent GFS.  Looks interesting for the first few days of February.  Pattern change?  Real storms?  GH day storm repeat? 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Huge change on the recent GFS.  Looks interesting for the first few days of February.  Pattern change?  Real storms?  GH day storm repeat? 

[Stacsh]

6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I’m the pessimist here.  Trying to infuse some optimism even if it’s a pipe dream.  I miss “real” winters in Michigan.  

[Andie]

The moisture that sat over us today and toyed with our expectations moved off east and rained on La. And swung up to Tenn.  

Frankly, I’m offended. 
There’s even winter weather falling in South Tx.  C’mon. 
 

[Timmy Supercell]

12 minutes ago, Andie said:

The moisture that sat over us today and toyed with our expectations moved off east and rained on La. And swung up to Tenn.  

Frankly, I’m offended. 
There’s even winter weather falling in South Tx.  C’mon. 
 

I was curious how often does Corpus Christi get snow? They have palm trees down there.

[Andie]

Maybe 5 times since 1950. That’s about every 12 yrs or so. It’s a fairly rare thing considering the Gulf. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

What’s your snow depth out in IA?  

About 9 inches id say.  Melted and compacted Tuesday  alot. Ive had 19 inches in January and for the season.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

I’m the pessimist here.  Trying to infuse some optimism even if it’s a pipe dream.  I miss “real” winters in Michigan.  

I wouldn't call you THE pessimist...

[Minny_Weather]

I become MSP_Weather on January 28. Mark the date.

[mlgamer]

21-22 Winter Storm Warning Scoreboard...

• South Texas: 1
• Me: 0 

[Beltrami Island]

2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I become MSP_Weather on January 28. Mark the date.

So major snow and blizzard for ND and northern MN, rain for MSP within 2 weeks...alright then.

[Tom]

@Clinton the models are really starting to come into agreement for a system at the end of the month that could bring your area in the game.   I'd like to see more blocking up in southern Canada so this system won't cut so much.  It does appear that we are heading towards a more active pattern as we flip the calendar into FEB.

[Clinton]

One of the coldest mornings of the Winter so far, it's currently 5 with a WC of -10.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton the models are really starting to come into agreement for a system at the end of the month that could bring your area in the game.   I'd like to see more blocking up in southern Canada so this system won't cut so much.  It does appear that we are heading towards a more active pattern as we flip the calendar into FEB.

The Euro ensembles favor more of a north track, which makes since with the AO and NAO likely being positive.

[CentralNebWeather]

I've lived in Central Nebraska my entire life.  It is very hard to get below 0 here with no snow cover.  It looks like we reached a low temperature of -4.  That is really quite amazing.  Can't imagine how long it may have gotten with last winters snow depth.

[westMJim]

Just trace amounts of new snow fall here at my house. The snow pack is now down to 2.3" of old dirty snow. The overnight low here was 15 and at this time it is cloudy with a few flurries and 17.

[tStacsh]

Can't help but think after these clippers the end of next week looks promising for a decent storm, phasing cutter?

[Timmy Supercell]

2.0" snow reported this morning at a cocorahs site but unfortunately that site wasn't recording any of the previous 2 or 3 times it snowed this January. Someone find me a reliable station here? 

[Timmy Supercell]

1.5" at my house. Total 9.0" for the winter. This might be the 3rd high below freezing for the season. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

1.5" at my house. Total 9.0" for the winter. This might be the 3rd high below freezing for the season. 

You're now above me for snowfall amounts for the season.

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

You're now above me for snowfall amounts for the season.

That's not even mid-high range for totals near my area. Catlettsburg and other cities are nearing 2'. 

[tStacsh]

That would be an EPIC nor'easter.