January 2022 Observations & Discussion

[james1976]

19 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

That would be an EPIC nor'easter. 

 

 

958, that's almost scary

[james1976]

Storm showing up to open up Feb is intriguing. GFS has a thin but intense band of snow.

[Niko]

That could be a repeat of blizzard96, which I encountered and was one of the best storms I've experienced in NYC while living there. 3"+ per hour snowfall rates..Never experienced that elsewhere.

[Timmy Supercell]

22 minutes ago, Niko said:

That could be a repeat of blizzard96, which I encountered and was one of the best storms I've experienced in NYC while living there. 3"+ per hour snowfall rates..Never experienced that elsewhere.

I've only experienced 2"/hour rates briefly in one snow event in Klamath Falls Oregon. 1/3/2017. The heaviest point was only for a few hours after sundown, but it was a nice 26 hours straight it snowed.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..........

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -12. Calm wind becoming south southeast 5 to 9 mph in the evening.

Friday

Increasing clouds, with a high near 27. Wind chill values as low as -12. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday Night

A chance of flurries before 10pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 25. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 43.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 8.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 18.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 26.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.

[Andie]

Joining OmahaSnowFan today
37*
low tonight 20

wind <10mph

partly cloudy   (no rain of course)

 

 

[Niko]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..........

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -12. Calm wind becoming south southeast 5 to 9 mph in the evening.

Friday

Increasing clouds, with a high near 27. Wind chill values as low as -12. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday Night

A chance of flurries before 10pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 25. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 43.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 8.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 18.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 26.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.

Yikes..cannot get any drier than that. My area has been dry as well. Haven't seen accumulating snow it seems for ages. It has been cold here imby, but if there are no snowstorms, then, cold means ditto.  Luckily, I still have patches of snow on the ground, but that is old snow and I am not a fan of old snow. Hopefully we can score something big soon.

[james1976]

GFS with back to back storms first weekend in Feb. I'm dreaming big lol

[Madtown]

Well the opening of Dec put 22" on the ground by the 15th so maybe Feb can deliver the goods!

[OttumwaSnomow]

6 hours ago, Niko said:

That could be a repeat of blizzard96, which I encountered and was one of the best storms I've experienced in NYC while living there. 3"+ per hour snowfall rates..Never experienced that elsewhere.

I lived in Maryland  feb 11 1983. Megaopolis  storm.  Started 4 am ended 7pm. 36" snow. Lightning  and thunder 5 straight  hrs.  5 inch per hour. That piedmont corridor west of interstate 95 can get absurd snow.   Unheard of in midwest.  Unless les

[Andie]

Yeah. Missed me by a country mile!  
 

 

[Minny_Weather]

My friend reported heavy sleet in College Station about 30 minutes ago.

[jaster220]

Hello all you wonderful wx geeks. I just this evening came back in here to find/read the posts of encouragement 9 days ago. They were much appreciated! I was released and got home late on the 11th doing much much better. Only my lower legs swelled up with retained fluids so mobility was barely there and very painful when I needed to force motion. Which I had no choice but to do so as I arrived home to find my wife in extremely frail condition after suffering with a lesser case of COVID, but still bed ridden and unable to eat for 9 days. I spent the first 5 days around the clock preparing "whole foods" that had the best chance of appealing to my wife's very weak appetite. 2-1/2 days in she reported she could sense her energy returning but she wasn't fully herself until just last night 8 days later. I got a bout of blood clots in my lungs so I continue on meds for that. But the spider webbing junk that the body coated my lungs with as a defense was slow to recede. I started back to work part time this week but my shortness of breath was stunning. Climbing a full set of stairs was impossible. Fortunately my lungs are improving every day but my swollen legs are now the main/worst side-effect I am dealing with. I am happy to see a physician Monday and hopefully will get some help for the condition. I've had issues with my legs before (I'm not young) but never like this. What I need is Florida weather, instead I get 18F, nasty wind and a car that barely wants to warm up. This boring dry pattern tho I will deal with over trudging through constant snows. I could just as well fast-forward to spring with my current situation. I'll no doubt be keeping an eye out in here for storms and rumors of storms, but I have a lot on my plate to return life to normal so no camping out here for this fella. Oh, of all my older sibs that have had COVID (5), only me the youngest needed hospitalization tho 2 got close. I hadn't been ill with anything for nearly 4 years, so you just never know. This strange virus hits everyone a bit differently. I suffered 9 of 10 symptoms listed on the hospital paperwork. Oddly, my immediate neighbor here, contracted COVID down in Atlanta when he was there for fam Christmas and he had only the extreme sore throat. You guessed it, the one single symptom I didn't get.

Take care and be safe everyone.

[Clinton]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hello all you wonderful wx geeks. I just this evening came back in here to find/read the posts of encouragement 9 days ago. They were much appreciated! I was released and got home late on the 11th doing much much better. Only my lower legs swelled up with retained fluids so mobility was barely there and very painful when I needed to force motion. Which I had no choice but to do so as I arrived home to find my wife in extremely frail condition after suffering with a lesser case of COVID, but still bed ridden and unable to eat for 9 days. I spent the first 5 days around the clock preparing "whole foods" that had the best chance of appealing to my wife's very weak appetite. 2-1/2 days in she reported she could sense her energy returning but she wasn't fully herself until just last night 8 days later. I got a bout of blood clots in my lungs so I continue on meds for that. But the spider webbing junk that the body coated my lungs with as a defense was slow to recede. I started back to work part time this week but my shortness of breath was stunning. Climbing a full set of stairs was impossible. Fortunately my lungs are improving every day but my swollen legs are now the main/worst side-effect I am dealing with. I am happy to see a physician Monday and hopefully will get some help for the condition. I've had issues with my legs before (I'm not young) but never like this. What I need is Florida weather, instead I get 18F, nasty wind and a car that barely wants to warm up. This boring dry pattern tho I will deal with over trudging through constant snows. I could just as well fast-forward to spring with my current situation. I'll no doubt be keeping an eye out in here for storms and rumors of storms, but I have a lot on my plate to return life to normal so no camping out here for this fella. Oh, of all my older sibs that have had COVID (5), only me the youngest needed hospitalization tho 2 got close. I hadn't been ill with anything for nearly 4 years, so you just never know. This strange virus hits everyone a bit differently. I suffered 9 of 10 symptoms listed on the hospital paperwork. Oddly, my immediate neighbor here, contracted COVID down in Atlanta when he was there for fam Christmas and he had only the extreme sore throat. You guessed it, the one single symptom I didn't get.

Take care and be safe everyone.

That's some scary stuff, I hope you and your wife make a full recovery.  I've worried about you, it's very different around here without seeing post from you everyday.  Please keep us updated and I hope you continue to feel better.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I lived in Maryland  feb 11 1983. Megaopolis  storm.  Started 4 am ended 7pm. 36" snow. Lightning  and thunder 5 straight  hrs.  5 inch per hour. That piedmont corridor west of interstate 95 can get absurd snow.   Unheard of in midwest.  Unless les

I remember that blizzard like it was yesterday. I remember getting clobbered . This is what I can tell ya: It was morning, bitterly cold w/ temps in the upper single digits. This storm was racing up the coast in a bitter cold air mass, so, it was truly a very cold snowstorm (blizzard for that matter).  Snow began falling around 3pm or so and as I was getting outta elementary school at that time, I remember walking backwards because of the very strong winds and very heavy snow. Throughout the whole storm, temps remained in the teens. It was a fast mover (12 hours or so) and that was it. The next morning....yup, you guessed it, "Everything Buried." Cars were not seen anywhere. It was like a big mountain over them. Huge drifts (5-8ft). From Washington, D.C., to New York City, snowfall rates peaked at 3 to 5 inches and even widespread thundersnow was reported. Btw: I kept seeing thundersnow every so often throughout the storm. Now, the weird part was, that a big warmup arrived 2 days later (50s) and slowly killed off our snowpack within a week. Mind you, if that snowstorm had not occurred, it would have been a snowless Winter for the Big-Apple. This storm brought us to near average for the Winter season. How about that. We were hit hard, but a fast mover. If I remember correctly, this was a miller B storm that formed off the Carolina's and took a sharp left turn up the coast and just exploded. So, February tends to be our snowy month, so look-out if conditions are favorable. Total snowfall tallys were reported near 2 ft+ area wide. Finally, to close up, if ya ever want to experience high snowfall rates, the EC is where to be.

Here are a few pics of this intense blizzard in NYC:

 

[Niko]

55 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hello all you wonderful wx geeks. I just this evening came back in here to find/read the posts of encouragement 9 days ago. They were much appreciated! I was released and got home late on the 11th doing much much better. Only my lower legs swelled up with retained fluids so mobility was barely there and very painful when I needed to force motion. Which I had no choice but to do so as I arrived home to find my wife in extremely frail condition after suffering with a lesser case of COVID, but still bed ridden and unable to eat for 9 days. I spent the first 5 days around the clock preparing "whole foods" that had the best chance of appealing to my wife's very weak appetite. 2-1/2 days in she reported she could sense her energy returning but she wasn't fully herself until just last night 8 days later. I got a bout of blood clots in my lungs so I continue on meds for that. But the spider webbing junk that the body coated my lungs with as a defense was slow to recede. I started back to work part time this week but my shortness of breath was stunning. Climbing a full set of stairs was impossible. Fortunately my lungs are improving every day but my swollen legs are now the main/worst side-effect I am dealing with. I am happy to see a physician Monday and hopefully will get some help for the condition. I've had issues with my legs before (I'm not young) but never like this. What I need is Florida weather, instead I get 18F, nasty wind and a car that barely wants to warm up. This boring dry pattern tho I will deal with over trudging through constant snows. I could just as well fast-forward to spring with my current situation. I'll no doubt be keeping an eye out in here for storms and rumors of storms, but I have a lot on my plate to return life to normal so no camping out here for this fella. Oh, of all my older sibs that have had COVID (5), only me the youngest needed hospitalization tho 2 got close. I hadn't been ill with anything for nearly 4 years, so you just never know. This strange virus hits everyone a bit differently. I suffered 9 of 10 symptoms listed on the hospital paperwork. Oddly, my immediate neighbor here, contracted COVID down in Atlanta when he was there for fam Christmas and he had only the extreme sore throat. You guessed it, the one single symptom I didn't get.

Take care and be safe everyone.

Speedy recovery to you and your wife Jaster.  I'm glad ya feeling better. Stay strong ("Eye of The Tiger.")

 

 

[james1976]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Hello all you wonderful wx geeks. I just this evening came back in here to find/read the posts of encouragement 9 days ago. They were much appreciated! I was released and got home late on the 11th doing much much better. Only my lower legs swelled up with retained fluids so mobility was barely there and very painful when I needed to force motion. Which I had no choice but to do so as I arrived home to find my wife in extremely frail condition after suffering with a lesser case of COVID, but still bed ridden and unable to eat for 9 days. I spent the first 5 days around the clock preparing "whole foods" that had the best chance of appealing to my wife's very weak appetite. 2-1/2 days in she reported she could sense her energy returning but she wasn't fully herself until just last night 8 days later. I got a bout of blood clots in my lungs so I continue on meds for that. But the spider webbing junk that the body coated my lungs with as a defense was slow to recede. I started back to work part time this week but my shortness of breath was stunning. Climbing a full set of stairs was impossible. Fortunately my lungs are improving every day but my swollen legs are now the main/worst side-effect I am dealing with. I am happy to see a physician Monday and hopefully will get some help for the condition. I've had issues with my legs before (I'm not young) but never like this. What I need is Florida weather, instead I get 18F, nasty wind and a car that barely wants to warm up. This boring dry pattern tho I will deal with over trudging through constant snows. I could just as well fast-forward to spring with my current situation. I'll no doubt be keeping an eye out in here for storms and rumors of storms, but I have a lot on my plate to return life to normal so no camping out here for this fella. Oh, of all my older sibs that have had COVID (5), only me the youngest needed hospitalization tho 2 got close. I hadn't been ill with anything for nearly 4 years, so you just never know. This strange virus hits everyone a bit differently. I suffered 9 of 10 symptoms listed on the hospital paperwork. Oddly, my immediate neighbor here, contracted COVID down in Atlanta when he was there for fam Christmas and he had only the extreme sore throat. You guessed it, the one single symptom I didn't get.

Take care and be safe everyone.

Crazy story. Very happy to hear you and your wife recovering. Scary virus! Do your thing to get fully recovered and we will see you back in here soon.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hello all you wonderful wx geeks. I just this evening came back in here to find/read the posts of encouragement 9 days ago. They were much appreciated! I was released and got home late on the 11th doing much much better. Only my lower legs swelled up with retained fluids so mobility was barely there and very painful when I needed to force motion. Which I had no choice but to do so as I arrived home to find my wife in extremely frail condition after suffering with a lesser case of COVID, but still bed ridden and unable to eat for 9 days. I spent the first 5 days around the clock preparing "whole foods" that had the best chance of appealing to my wife's very weak appetite. 2-1/2 days in she reported she could sense her energy returning but she wasn't fully herself until just last night 8 days later. I got a bout of blood clots in my lungs so I continue on meds for that. But the spider webbing junk that the body coated my lungs with as a defense was slow to recede. I started back to work part time this week but my shortness of breath was stunning. Climbing a full set of stairs was impossible. Fortunately my lungs are improving every day but my swollen legs are now the main/worst side-effect I am dealing with. I am happy to see a physician Monday and hopefully will get some help for the condition. I've had issues with my legs before (I'm not young) but never like this. What I need is Florida weather, instead I get 18F, nasty wind and a car that barely wants to warm up. This boring dry pattern tho I will deal with over trudging through constant snows. I could just as well fast-forward to spring with my current situation. I'll no doubt be keeping an eye out in here for storms and rumors of storms, but I have a lot on my plate to return life to normal so no camping out here for this fella. Oh, of all my older sibs that have had COVID (5), only me the youngest needed hospitalization tho 2 got close. I hadn't been ill with anything for nearly 4 years, so you just never know. This strange virus hits everyone a bit differently. I suffered 9 of 10 symptoms listed on the hospital paperwork. Oddly, my immediate neighbor here, contracted COVID down in Atlanta when he was there for fam Christmas and he had only the extreme sore throat. You guessed it, the one single symptom I didn't get.

Take care and be safe everyone.

Miss ya Jaster and I will be praying for you and your family!  Take care amigo.  Like Niko says, "Eye of The Tiger"...always loved that song while watching "Rocky".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERT_7u5L0dc

 

 

[Tom]

Likely the coldest morning of the season and still dropping for many of you...took a gander up in the Northwoods and golly its cold!  @Madtown

Lots of -10's showing up in IA as well...

[Tom]

I would like to comment on the LR pattern and dive deeper into a much more favorable pattern for snow enthusiasts.  If you live near the GL's region, it is likely now that we will see systems traverse the region every 2-3 days.   I like what the GEFS are showing mid/late next week as another trough enters the region next Thu/Fri bringing another lighter round of snows out of the NW Flow pattern.

 

Following this system, the Split Flow pattern aloft sorta flattens out across the Sub allowing for systems to develop farther west at the tail end of the month.  The system I was expecting at the very end of the month is still showing up on both the GEFS/EPS.

 

0z EPS seeing it but not as cold as the GEFS which have trended colder in the Week 1-2 period as did the EPS.  I'm wondering if the MJO is starting to wane influence in the overall pattern.  For the most part, the models seem to keep the MJO rotating in the Null Phase.

 

 

 

 

The GEFS MJO forecast showing not much amplitude...

 

 

 

Interestingly, the JMA wants to end up in Phase 1/2 in the extended...this would be ideal or all of us...

 

So, in a nut shell, as the models battle it out to close out JAN....are we heading into a better overall patter for storm production?  I say yes, the LRC and BSR say yes...and of course, the models are heading that way as well.

Finally, I'll post the JMA weeklies run from yesterday and it can't be any more different than the GEFS /EPS for Week 2.

Temps...

Notice the ribbon of AN precip right through the "heartland" and Lower Lakes...

 

[Tom]

If you wanna believe the LR Euro Weeklies, it basically blow torches the entire US for FEB...Winter cancel???  I don't think so.  This 10mb animation below suggests to me that the NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge will fire up in FEB and not the domination of a western Canada trough that the Euro EPS almost always wants to show in the extended.  The CFSv2 weeklies are locked on this NE PAC pattern.  

The last few images of the animation below show the big warming in the NE PAC region...if you take the time stamp between JAN 13th-18th below and fast forward 3 weeks it'll bring you towards the Week of the 6th in FEB.  Let's see which model is right for what happens in early FEB.  My gut says the CFSv2 is right and to expect ridging in this region and not a trough like the Euro wants to paint.  This LR tool has been money this season.  I hope its right this time as well.  SW Flow...here we go???  I hope we can recoop the snow I love to see this time of year.

 

 

[Madtown]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Likely the coldest morning of the season and still dropping for many of you...took a gander up in the Northwoods and golly its cold!  @Madtown

Lots of -10's showing up in IA as well...

-19.8 atm on my weather station. Should drop a few more degrees yet. Airport has been at 22 below for a bit. Love it. Trails set up like concrete after grooming.

[Clinton]

Temps have fallen below 0 for the first time this season, currently -1.  Very impressive shot of artic air to get readings below 0 here with no snow cover.

[westMJim]

The overnight low here at my house so far is +3 the official overnight low so far is +7. Once again just a trace of snow fell yesterday here. There was snow to the SW of here as some cars had a lot of snow on them on I 196. There is now just 2.0" of snow on the ground here. For January the snow fall remains 19.0" and for the season it still is 38.8" At this time it is partly cloudy and 3 here.

[tStacsh]

24 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The overnight low here at my house so far is +3 the official overnight low so far is +7. Once again just a trace of snow fell yesterday here. There was snow to the SW of here as some cars had a lot of snow on them on I 196. There is now just 2.0" of snow on the ground here. For January the snow fall remains 19.0" and for the season it still is 38.8" At this time it is partly cloudy and 3 here.

Do you know how that compares to average snowfall to date?  Got to down to 2.7 degrees here around 7:45 am.  

[Thunder98]

-28F in Merrill, WI!
 

 

 

[Madtown]

Made it to-27 at the airport this am.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Made it to-27 at the airport this am.

Reminiscent of Jan ‘19 PV visit…

[OttumwaSnomow]

-14.4

But im on top of hill at my new farm. My old place was probably  -20. My son is there but his station  quit working.

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Do you know how that compares to average snowfall to date?  Got to down to 2.7 degrees here around 7:45 am. 

That 19.0 is about +4.3 for the month and that 38.8 is about -4.1 for the season.

[Jayhawker85]

Hit -4 this morning which is the coldest of the season. Also everything was covered in a glaze of frost which is something i never seen when it’s this cold out 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, westMJim said:

That 19.0 is about +4.3 for the month and that 38.8 is about -4.1 for the season.

Figured it was close to average.  Looks like we will add to our totals the next week and maybe beyond.  Looking to me like we will be pretty close to average this year, outside of another major snowfall.  Pretty spot on from was being forecasted in the Fall.  Just came in a different way than expected since then.  

[Hawkeye]

It dropped to about -10º in my yard this morning and -15º at the airport.  The Euro was way off with its forecast of -20s across Iowa.  It could have been colder if the snow was fresher and deeper.

[OmahaSnowFan]

 

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Latest models runs are basically a desert from Southern California to SW Iowa.  Just nothing.  

[CentralNebWeather]

I sure miss tracking storms.  One of the most quiet winters I can remember in this area.  

[snowstorm83]

That sounds like a wild ride for you and your family @jaster220! I'm glad you guys are recovering. 

[mlgamer]

[snowstorm83]

3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It's feeling like 2019-20 where I was never able to pick up 2"+ until April  but even that year we were up to 9" by the end of January. And at least it rained throughout that winter, as of now the last significant precipitation event was back in October. The Dec freak severe weather event was mostly a 5-10 min downpour in terms of precip. 

[Up_north_MI]

Chilly in the mitt lately also!