January 2022 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

15 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I sure miss tracking storms.  One of the most quiet winters I can remember in this area.  

If the Euro/EPS are right, come late Tue you will be tracking some snow....don't you like + last minute trends???

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Chilly in the mitt lately also!

That is friggin' cold!  I'm wondering if the cold shot comings next week will rival this one bc it's looking pretty D**n potent, esp with a fresh blanket of snow.  Get ready bud, our region is about to get into a more conducive pattern for snow production.

 

Speaking of snow production, the EPS/GEFS are now on board that the clipper wave train is just the beginning of what appears to be a more favorable patter around the GL"s region to finish off the month.  Not including the 2 clipper systems that are heading our way but there are 2 more systems to monitor by months end.  Models are showing another trough diving SE out of Canada next Thu/Fri period over the GL's and then the flow comes out of the SW by the tail end of the month on the 31st.  Finish off JAN on a much more snowier note???  Sign me up!

0z Canadien...I like the look wrt the system for the 31st....been on my calendar for a long time and this one should include KC and members down there...lets see if nature will cooperate.

 

 

 

[Tom]

It's not like I was wish casting and throwing stuff out there, but the EPS over the past few runs has certainly trended towards the GEFS/CFSv2 for early FEB.  The arctic air is going to fill up the western parts of the CONUS and begin to seed into an active SW Flow pattern.  Is there a Ground Hog's Day storm brewin'?  There is a legit signal that around this period a stormier pattern is setting up.  

 

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 teasing many of us across the central CONUS for early FEB...

 

 

FWIW, the 10mb Strat warming animation below adding more confidence that we will see a lot more ridging across NW NAMER during the 1st two weeks of FEB...things are lining up pretty well across the modeling.  I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing.

 

[Tom]

@james1976 made the list...

[westMJim]

For the 1st time in a while there is new snow on the ground. Just under a half inch here. The temperature here dropped to 11 before rising most of the night to its current point of 19. At this time there is some very light snow falling here.

[CentralNebWeather]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

If the Euro/EPS are right, come late Tue you will be tracking some snow....don't you like + last minute trends???

NWS Hastings mentioned this potential in the AM disco. Most other models have this further west. Let’s hope the Euro is on to something. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just had my coldest low temperature so far this winter in Ashland. 5 degrees this morning. 

There have only been 2 lows below 10 including today for what it's worth. 

[Cfweather]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

@james1976 made the list...

Waterloo also had -18.

I don’t mind it for a day….. it’s when we get that cold for several days it it starts to get to me. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

So clippers for the Great Lakes and then dry to end the month is it for January?

[jaster220]

18 hours ago, Tom said:

CFSv2 teasing many of us across the central CONUS for early FEB...

 

 

FWIW, the 10mb Strat warming animation below adding more confidence that we will see a lot more ridging across NW NAMER during the 1st two weeks of FEB...things are lining up pretty well across the modeling.  I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing.

 

 

I don't think it's a tease at all. Analog seasons pointed towards one "good period" or month and for L. Lakes we know Dec was a dud, January has been sub-par and mostly dry tundra. If there's been one "go to month" over the past (15) years it's been February so why quit when you're on a roll? 

[jaster220]

@iFred

Hi, I seem to have perfectly normal functionality within the Sub-forum to post, reply, see "likes" etc. 

But, is this causing my avatar to be missing? 

• Email Address

  
  jaster220@hotmail.com

   

  Is there any work-around you've found yet? 

  I'm not interested in taking some other email. 

  I'm also concerned that if I were to re-register with said new email, I'd lose all of my current settings & history.

[westMJim]

Here just NW of Grand Rapids I recorded 2.7" of new snow fall and there is now 5.5" on the ground. While not real deep it now looks more like mid winter than it did. There is some clearing here now with clouds still to the south and west. With that clearing it is now down to 14 here.

[CentralNebWeather]

Well the wave that the Euro showed hitting my area on Tuesday has trended west with  all model runs the last 2 days. Now maybe just flurries. Hard to catch anything this winter. I’ve even talked to winter haters that would like to see some. 

[Niko]

Some rare snow fell in Andros, Greece yesterday. Temps were in the 30s for daytime highs and lows dipped into the 20s. Teens were reported in higher elevation. At sea level, temps bottomed out at -1C, which is 30F.  My neighbor emailed me these pics. He typically lives there year round and owns his own business. Anyways, more snow believe or not might fall there in the coming days. Very crazy weather.

Here are some pics:

Pic1; A town in the mountains not far from my place.

Pic2; The beach where I usually go swimming is covered in snow.

Pic3; This pathway leads you to my house straight down. Hard to see from low clouds and fog. Also, I am up in elevation of about 500ft, so, there is more snow up here than sea-level. Looks like a  2-3" snowfall fell.

Pic4; A different side of view from my beach. Slushy roads and slippery conditions for them for sure, will probably make travel a little treacherous, given they are not used to these wintry conditions. Also, if ya look all the way straight down, as far as your eye can see, you will see a lighthouse. Went there once to go swimming, but experienced bad rip currents, so we hopped on the boat and went cruising to another beach nearby instead. Plus, its very windy there at that spot.

Enjoy the pics:

 

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

36 degrees and light flakes. It doesn't look like we get much tonight.

[Stacsh]

It seems all models are picking up on a storm around the 2nd/3rd of February.   Will be interesting to see how it plays out.  

[Andie]

How do you guys like your pancakes?  
Chicago this weekend. 

 

[FV-Mike]

SE Wi and NE IL under WWA

WHAT...Snow and hazardous travel conditions expected for the
  Monday morning commute. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3
  inches.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looks like we go into February with 8” of snow on the season with only 2 days of snow this month.

[centralweather44]

3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Looks like we go into February with 8” of snow on the season with only 2 days of snow this month.

8” sitting a lot better than the 3.5” we have had in Lincoln. 

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

8” sitting a lot better than the 3.5” we have had in Lincoln. 

6-7” at my house in Central Nebraska. Just sad. 

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

6-7” at my house in Central Nebraska. Just sad. 

Only 7" here and no precipitation in sight for the next 10 days... it just doesn't get much more boring than this guys! What a dull and depressing winter so far for snow lovers like myself around here.

I am heading out to Denver for work for a few days tomorrow, so I am looking forward to seeing some snow out there tomorrow night and Tuesday (calling for 4" to 8" in the metro)... I have got to take what I can get, right? 

[centralweather44]

I stand corrected. 3.7 inches here in Lincoln. Was off by 3 one hundredths. Either way quite a night and day difference from last year. I wasn’t expecting another year like that but an average year would be nice 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Tom]

0z GEFS looking interesting for the Thu/Fri period....more so across the eastern Sub...

 

 

 

[westMJim]

So far there has been 0.7" of new snow fall here. And there is now 6.5" of snow on the ground. At this time with light snow falling it is 17.

[Madtown]

big Rainer Feb 4th

[Niko]

All eyes bear watching for early February timeframe (2-5th). A potent system could be affecting  some peeps w/heavy snow. Something to keep an eye on for mid next week. Now who gets what all remains to be seen.

 

[bud2380]

If the Euro is right... I want to be in Maine.  Wow.  SLP 949mb??

 

 

[tStacsh]

GFS and Euro both have a storm FEB 2nd/3rd.  Only 800 miles apart.   

[Niko]

[westMJim]

I just cleared the driveway of 1.5" of light fluffy snow. There is now 6.8" of total snow on the ground here. 

[snowstorm83]

Just for ***** and giggles, 65 and -25 just three days apart on the 12z GFS  But it would be nice if the first week of Feb finally delievers here. It can snow in March and April, but the window is closing for snow that'll last more than a couple days. 

[MIKEKC]

Come on pattern change, we need you for Feb. The active part of the LRC returns around the first week of Feb.,, let's see if we can get the cold to lock in, some signs that may just happen. GFS has a nice snow storm here in KC around Feb. 5th.(I know, always 10 days out) 

#backloadedwinter

 

Patrick Mahomes, that's all you need. WOW...what a game last night. 

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

The storm coming down through Western Nebraska, Eastern Colorado, and Western Kansas looks nice.  Of course it is a couple of counties too far west of me.  Missed in all directions this winter as we stare at brown ground.

[Niko]

Looks like S MI gets more snow later this week and it could be a long duration....

Check this out from NOAA:

Residence time in
the warm sector will be brief as the attendant cold front sags
through Lower Michigan. Upper level support will be favorable and
persistent as the northern stream disturbance is absorbed by a
slower southern stream longwave trough. Early indications suggest an
extended period of moistening and long duration light snowfall
across the region, perhaps carrying into Friday afternoon.

[gimmesnow]

I got to snowboard on real, ungroomed, natural snow today. First time this year.

[Tom]

22 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I got to snowboard on real, ungroomed, natural snow today. First time this year.

How much have you received over the past few days?  S WI did pretty good from what I saw.

[Andie]

We’re at 53 low tonight at 31*.
Very light rain/drizzle. 

Despite needing some real rain it has only teased us all day.  Chilly, damp, but no real precip.