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January 2022 Observations & Discussion


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6 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

 

The Texas Panhandle is seeing very bipolar weather this week. Tomorrow Pampa, TX has a forecast high of only 27F Thursday with a lows in the single digits. 2 days later the high is near 70F! On Sunday temperatures drop back down to the 40's.

3a313fad2549ed622a3307192db8e2b4b81d96c3

That's west Texas for you. Not sure if I could handle such a volatile climate like that of West TX/NM/CO. Cold snaps aren't fun when they last no more than 2 days.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Last nights 0z EPS continue to trend better for the potential system that is bound to show up for late week/weekend into the MW/GL's.  Big uptick in the ensembles for a formidable system that should effect a lot of members on here, esp over the eastern Sub.  Both GEFS/EPS seeing a similar setup.  Is this the start of a wave train???   I believe so and it also looks like the teleconnections will begin to playing ball.  BTW, the warm up keeps getting delay for the GL's region on the EPS and something the GEFS have also been suggesting.  Looks like a minimal warm up before the cold and snow reloads.  I'm starting to feel pretty good about the duration of the cold coming back and the storms that are lining up.  I'm expecting a big ticket storm coming out of the TX Pan Handle during the 19th-21st timeframe.

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FWIW, what is about to transpire in the N PAC is a thing of beauty and a pattern that does not suggest the return of a stout -PNA (slightly (-) to neutral) in the extended.  However, the return of the -EPO and NE PAC ridge is pretty much in agreement with all the models.  Our friend down in OK @OKwx2k4and possibly @Andie should be back in the game later this month.  The cold will press and deliver some Winter Fun for ya'll down there!

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LR GEFS...

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Last nights 0z EPS continue to trend better for the potential system that is bound to show up for late week/weekend into the MW/GL's.  Big uptick in the ensembles for a formidable system that should effect a lot of members on here, esp over the eastern Sub.  Both GEFS/EPS seeing a similar setup.  Is this the start of a wave train???   I believe so and it also looks like the teleconnections will begin to playing ball.  BTW, the warm up keeps getting delay for the GL's region on the EPS and something the GEFS have also been suggesting.  Looks like a minimal warm up before the cold and snow reloads.  I'm starting to feel pretty good about the duration of the cold coming back and the storms that are lining up.  I'm expecting a big ticket storm coming out of the TX Pan Handle during the 19th-21st timeframe.

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FWIW, what is about to transpire in the N PAC is a thing of beauty and a pattern that does not suggest the return of a stout -PNA (slightly (-) to neutral) in the extended.  However, the return of the -EPO and NE PAC ridge is pretty much in agreement with all the models.  Our friend down in OK @OKwx2k4and possibly @Andie should be back in the game later this month.  The cold will press and deliver some Winter Fun for ya'll down there!

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LR GEFS...

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Thanks for the update, Tom. Hopefully after what appears to be a week to 10 day break in the extreme cold/storms hopefully later this month into Feb. we can get into some wetter/colder storms. Only .5 inches of snow in my part of KC so far this winter. WOW! Let's shoot for a back loaded winter. 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Last nights 0z EPS continue to trend better for the potential system that is bound to show up for late week/weekend into the MW/GL's.  Big uptick in the ensembles for a formidable system that should effect a lot of members on here, esp over the eastern Sub.  Both GEFS/EPS seeing a similar setup.  Is this the start of a wave train???   I believe so and it also looks like the teleconnections will begin to playing ball.  BTW, the warm up keeps getting delay for the GL's region on the EPS and something the GEFS have also been suggesting.  Looks like a minimal warm up before the cold and snow reloads.  I'm starting to feel pretty good about the duration of the cold coming back and the storms that are lining up.  I'm expecting a big ticket storm coming out of the TX Pan Handle during the 19th-21st timeframe.

1.gif

 

FWIW, what is about to transpire in the N PAC is a thing of beauty and a pattern that does not suggest the return of a stout -PNA (slightly (-) to neutral) in the extended.  However, the return of the -EPO and NE PAC ridge is pretty much in agreement with all the models.  Our friend down in OK @OKwx2k4and possibly @Andie should be back in the game later this month.  The cold will press and deliver some Winter Fun for ya'll down there!

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LR GEFS...

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You mentioned a storm in the 19th-21st timeframe, the 6z GEFS looks good for your area.  Good ensemble agreement for a storm at this range.

1642831200-NsszMpDi6kE.png

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Yesterdays snow fall was almost all lake effect. Officially Grand Rapids had 8.0" at midnight for the month GR is now 13.7" and for the season GR is now at 33.5" At Muskegon they had a official reading of 5.3" of new snow and now have 7.5" for January and 17.3" for the season. Now here is where the totals really drop from yesterday. At Lansing they reported an official new snow fall total of just 1.0" for January there are now at 5.4" and for the season 17.9" On the east side of the state Detroit had just a trace of snow yesterday and now have 2.7" for January and 13.1" for the season. At Flint they reported just 0.6" of new snow and now have 4.7" for January and 20.2" for the season. At Saginaw they reported 0.4" of new snow and now have 0.9" for January and 12.9 for the season. 

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22 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models have trended much weaker and farther out to sea.  The latest GFS, Euro, and NAM show no more than 1-3" from Philly to Boston.

Looks like they have upped the totals. These type of systems sometimes tend to energize last second....

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
355 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-176-178-062100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0500Z-220107T1700Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
355 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
  York.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could range between one half
  inch and one inch per hour in any heavy snowbands.
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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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27 with DP's in the teens, definitely cold enough to snow. KJKL radar filling in with precipitation. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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With Tom’s mention of Okla and Tx seeing a reprieve til l  as te Jan. I’m okay with that.  
Rough weather is hard on older folks and livestock.  I’m ok with a cold snap or two after last years polar fit!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Some of the coldest wind chills you will see in the lower 48 outside elevation (MT Washington etc) below-

would be near -75F to -80F on the old wind chill charts pre 2001--- I once experienced a -100F or so wind chill on Lake Mille Lacs in Central MN, Martin Luther King weekend 1994 ice fishing (sleeper house) frost was on inside of 4" walls and propane in shed was gelling up. Temp was near -30F with 30-35 mph winds out 4-5 miles from shore.

But these are D**n cold in ND--

image.thumb.png.35dc415afa6a55b7638cd6141b3550b3.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The 12z GFS has has a warm-up for a few days next week, especially for the plains, but then unleashes cold on the US.  This run has the first appearance of a major polar vortex plunge at the end of the run.  Unfortunately, there would not be much snow cover across the region.  If it does get that cold, I'd really like a deep, powdery snow cover to protect the garden.  We'll probably end up with something a bit tamer.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The snow has just started. Light flurries so far in Ashland.

The noisy dogs next door just started barking, hopefully it's not the snow they're yacking at this time.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Wind chill got to -40*F here last night.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I got the driveway cleared off. This is the first time I have used the snowblower this year really didn't use it that much the last two winters. There has been light to at time moderate snow falling here for sometime now. I now have a total of 12.5" of snow on the ground and in places it is up to 14" 

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34 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I got the driveway cleared off. This is the first time I have used the snowblower this year really didn't use it that much the last two winters. There has been light to at time moderate snow falling here for sometime now. I now have a total of 12.5" of snow on the ground and in places it is up to 14" 

My average snow depth was 12.5 inches in my backyard.  So pretty spot on to what you are showing.  

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6 to 8 inches has fallen in the Nashville area today. Very significant storm for there, seasonal average is around 6". Meanwhile the low was -1 here this morning with basically bare ground 😬

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Omaha yearly weather summary for Omaha, Lincoln, and Norfolk. Wet and warm, just the way I like it🤪

https://www.weather.gov/media/oax/Climate/2021_Yearly_summary.pdf

Here's stats from my backyard.

Avg low: 43.0 

Coldest low: -23.6 (2/16)

Avg. high: 64.5

Hottest high: 102.0 (6/17)

Total precip: 35.71" (+2.50")

Greatest 24 hour precip: 2.85" (3/14)

Total snowfall: 28.1" (+1.0")

Greatest 24 hour snowfall: 8.0" (1/25)

Watches/warnings/advisories issued:

7 winter weather advisories

3 winter storm warnings

1 blizzard warning

4 wind chill advisories

2 wind chill warnings

5 red flag warnings

6 wind advisories

2 high wind warnings

5 dense fog advisories

2 frost advisories

5 freeze warnings

8 severe tstorm watches

6 severe tstorm warnings

1 tornado watch

1 flood watch

1 flash flood watch

1 flash flood warning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The thermometer hit a sizzling -13*F today. WAA moving in should actually keep temps from dropping uncontrollably like last week. -20*F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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The afternoon high in Cedar Rapids today was -3º.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I kinda doubt we reach -30 tonight despite my grid saying -31. SW flow has arrived and I'm only at -23.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Yikes, its a weee bit chilly out there....I had to go out on my patio deck earlier and close my eyes, take in a deep breath and feel that cold air....I dunno about you, but I have been yearning for wx like this for what seems forever!  Currently +0F...I'll prob head back if temps dip below 0F for the first time this season.

Screen Shot 2022-01-07 at 2.07.28 AM.png

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ORD reported a Trace of snow yesterday adding to the daily snow reports for the season.  Meantime, before the WeatherModels server crapped to bed...I was able to save the 0z Euro animation below....who wants to co-sign???  I see you Euro...been on my radar and that run is almost to a "T" of what I was envisioning.  In fact, its even better bc it adds those out in the Plains states.  Are we going to see an "I-80 special"???  The blocking setting up during this period argues in favor of a more classic west/east route into the Lower Lakes/OHV region.

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Both the EPS/GEFS are seeing a good signal for the Hudson Bay Block "over the top"...this is a quintessential set up for a slow moving system (similar to previous LRC cycle) to traverse the MW/GL's region.  IMO, this will be our next storm to track...let's hope for + trends in future runs...

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As we approach what I'd call the "reloading" period later next week, we will also be heading into the midpoint of met Winter when it typically is the coldest part of Winter.  Is nature going to cooperate?  IMHO, I think what is setting up for a lot of our members that have been on the sidelines in terms of snow, are in a much better position for what is coming down the line.  There are several Long Lead indicators I look at that are lining up and screaming an active/cold winter pattern ahead for the rest of JAN once we get towards next weekend.  Those who have been lucky to see snow will probably continue to add in that dept.  I do feel those in the S MW and Plains stand a much better chance of seeing more snow chances as the pattern looks ripe for the arctic air to press.  Lets see what the models are showing and why I'm pretty confident we (most of this Sub) will benefit from this forthcoming pattern.

First off, good riddance to that pesky SER that was a "dagger" to most of us...I would gladly take a neutral to slightly - PNA "all day"....

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Second, I'm digging the -EPO...pretty solid agreement right there....not to mention, but most of the models also agree for a return of the N ATL Ridge (AKA Greenland Block).  As these features develop, we will see the STJ activate and systems digging into the W/SW while the NW NAMER ridge fires up "seeding" the cold into the lower 48.  A very pronounced signal that the later parts of this month we will see multiple systems coming out of SW and/or CO.

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Yesterday's Euro Weeklies paint quite an active period for the 2nd half of JAN...the BSR/LRC suggest the same...as the teleconnections align, will nature cooperate and shine some white gold for all???

 

1.png

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Yikes, its a weee bit chilly out there....I had to go out on my patio deck earlier and close my eyes, take in a deep breath and feel that cold air....I dunno about you, but I have been yearning for wx like this for what seems forever!  Currently +0F...I'll prob head back if temps dip below 0F for the first time this season.

Screen Shot 2022-01-07 at 2.07.28 AM.png

Uh, I don’t know about anyone else, but in Texas we call this just “a little loco.”  🤠

 

70* with a MaiTai is more my speed.

Low of 22* this morning. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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With some clearing the overnight low here dropped down to 0° the official overnight low at GRR looks to have been +1. Of course that is by far the coldest it has been this winter season. at this time it up to +5 here with clear skies to the east and clouds to the west, overhead there are clouds but to the east and NE it is clear.  Officially GRR reported 5.3" of new snow fall yesterday. Here at my house I recorded 6.5" yesterday at GRR they reported 11" of snow on the ground here at my house I have 12.5" of snow on the ground. 

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Unexpectedly, a widespread area of clouds moved through eastern Iowa from midnight to 5am and brought the temp drop to a halt, so we came up short of the forecasted -15º.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Sunshine is breaking through those low, gray clouds this morning, along w/ a current temp of 9F.

Btw: That big Winterstorm out east did a a number in my hometown. : Huge overachiever. Looks like that storm backed up a bit more near the coastline. Family members and friends told me this was the first major snowfall of the season. Several spots in southern Connecticut received near a foot of snow. As cold air remains put, this snow aint going anywhere anytime soon. Happy for them!

NOAA:

Queens County...
NYC/La Guardia               8.4 in    0700 AM 01/07   Official NWS Obs
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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Yes, the NY-Bos system really came together.  TWC's Paul Goodloe was reporting 2"/hr for 3-4 hours this morning in Boston.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Yes, the NY-Bos system really came together.  TWC's Paul Goodloe was reporting 2"/hr for 3-4 hours this morning in Boston.

Yes..that is what I was told too, in fact, my sister and brother-in law told me that they could not see the buildings just across from them. That is how heavy the snow was. This is why Meteorologists need to be very careful w/these Atlantic storms because they can provide some nice surprises (like this one did). Winter Wonderland for them... finally. Also, they are definitely behind in the snow dept. February is their snowiest month, so hopefully, they will catch up w/ some major snowstorms during that point of time.

Btw: I saw the vid w/ Paul .G reporting in that hvy snow and man, B-Town was poundtown for those hours. Dang...!!!

Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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FWIW, the GFS got the January 5 "storm" around these parts pretty much spot on from several days out (though it did take it a while to catch on to the idea of something happening in the first place).  All of the mesoscale models were too strong and too far north for the most part.  The European was also generally too far north.  Just when I think it's time to trash a model for good, it bests it's competitors.  It's like they say in football ... on any given Sunday.  Some models may have a better track record, but for any specific weather event, you just don't know which one is going to perform better.  

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10 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I kinda doubt we reach -30 tonight despite my grid saying -31. SW flow has arrived and I'm only at -23.

Yup, looks like we only hit -26. Gonna climb quite a bit for the next 24 hours before crashing again. Good news is no more extreme cold for the foreseeable future.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Total snow 3.4" I measured. After sundown it continued lightly snowing but it stopped around midnight. Airport still thinks its snowing but I stepped out a handful of times and nothing was falling.

Widely ranging reports from 2" to 8+ in spots. Catlettsburg had 6" and they're just a short drive out of Ashland. Someone SW of me reported 1.8" barely in city limits. Shouldn't we have a spotter in downtown measuring snowfall? 

IMG_4787.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Check out this explosive on Winterstorm Garrett as it continues to move away from the major cities and heads on up to the Gulf of Maine. These folks are in for a treat!

https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL101_1280x720.jpg

Wait..wut.......Flashbacks of 2013-14 (PV in the works??!!)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIcNAqMXoAYe8BC?format=png&name=medium

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  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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48 minutes ago, Niko said:

Check out this explosive on Winterstorm Garrett as it continues to move away from the major cities and heads on up to the Gulf of Maine. These folks are in for a treat!

https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL101_1280x720.jpg

Wait..wut.......Flashbacks of 2013-14 (PV in the works??!!)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIcNAqMXoAYe8BC?format=png&name=medium

The northwest is sharing their cold finally! 

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I'm no LRC expert, but last I heard the "cycle" is now 63-65 days.... How can anyone take a look at these numbers and temperature pattern from back in November, and think January is going to end well here in eastern Nebraska?

Hint: there's no precip and temps are way above normal almost every day.

Omaha, NE - November, 2021
Date Observed
Low
(F)
Observed
High
(F)
Normal
Low
(F)
Normal
High
(F)
Record
Low
Min
(F)
Year Record
High
Max
(F)
Year Observed
Precipitation
(inches)
Record
Precipitation
(inches)
Record
Precipitation
Year
Observed
Snow Fall
(inches)
Record
Snow Fall
(inches)
Record
Snow Fall
Year
1 32 46 36 57 17 1911 80 1887 0.00 1.38 1992 0.0 2.0 1941
2 27 51 36 57 9 1991 82 2005 0.00 0.74 2011 0.0 5.7 1928
3 36 50 35 56 6 1991 81 2020 0.00 1.81 2003 0.0 0.2 1901
4 36 59 35 56 3 1991 76 1909 0.00 1.19 1956 0.0 0.2 1901
5 42 64 35 55 15 1877 80 1945 0.00 1.00 2013 0.0 1.0 1901
6 40 69 34 55 7 1991 80 1914 0.00 1.99 2000 0.0 4.0 1990
7 47 71 34 54 -1 1991 77 2001 0.00 0.84 1918 0.0 2.0 1926
8 38 65 33 54 7 1991 82 1999 0.00 1.10 1977 0.0 4.1 1973
9 37 64 33 53 14 2018 73 1999 0.00 1.36 1940 0.0 3.4 1932
10 47 58 32 53 2 1986 78 1927 0.34 1.45 1879 0.0 2.7 1968
11 37 55 32 52 -3 1986 74 1964 0.00 1.42 1882 0.0 2.4 1929
12 31 37 32 52 1 1911 74 2005 T 1.97 2010 T 3.2 1929
13 28 50 31 52 -2 1986 83 1999 T 1.88 1909 0.0 7.9 1972
14 34 49 31 51 -3 1940 76 1964 0.00 0.91 1926 0.0 2.0 1947
15 39 59 30 51 3 1940 75 2001 0.00 1.63 1964 0.0 1.8 2014
16 39 71 30 50 3 1959 73 2016 0.00 1.38 1996 0.0 9.0 1886
17 36 50 30 50 4 1891 73 1953 0.00 2.01 1952 0.0 4.4 1886
18 27 44 29 49 8 1914 74 1908 0.00 1.62 1871 0.0 6.2 1957
19 26 52 29 49 1 1914 73 2020 0.00 1.88 1953 0.0 2.5 1985
20 34 61 28 48 4 1985 75 1933 0.00 0.84 1973 0.0 5.1 1956
21 27 51 28 48 -3 1937 72 2012 0.00 0.83 1898 0.0 8.3 1898
22 28 48 28 47 -4 1871 70 1966 0.00 0.80 1999 0.0 4.0 1909
23 30 67 27 47 1 1898 67 2021 0.00 1.95 1931 0.0 2.3 1971
24 31 53 27 46 3 1898 73 2011 0.00 1.18 2001 0.0 1.4 1972
25 23 35 26 46 3 1977 72 1960 0.00 0.80 1952 0.0 6.7 1952
26 27 55 26 45 1 1898 67 1914 0.00 1.59 1896 0.0 2.9 1931
27 33 62 26 45 -14 1887 67 2017 0.00 2.16 1983 0.0 8.5 1983
28 24 49 25 44 -4 1976 65 2006 0.00 0.47 1971 0.0 5.7 1971
29 33 67 25 44 -6 1875 72 1998 0.00 1.84 1997 0.0 6.1 1919
30 33 57 25 43 -9 1964 66 1922 T 1.65 1981 0.0 4.1 1974
Average 33.4 55.6 30.2 50.3   0.34
Normal = 1.45
  0.0
Normal = 1.7
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6 hours ago, Niko said:

Check out this explosive on Winterstorm Garrett as it continues to move away from the major cities and heads on up to the Gulf of Maine. These folks are in for a treat!

https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL101_1280x720.jpg

Wait..wut.......Flashbacks of 2013-14 (PV in the works??!!)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIcNAqMXoAYe8BC?format=png&name=medium

That early Jan 1994 polar vortex  was  just crazy!!! I was away but in south central Pennsylvania  mountains  where I lived my neighbor  said it was  -37!!!! Ohio valley  set records that may never be broken.  Dec 1993 was a blowtorch eastern  usa but after that pv the storm train set in. Was the most snow any season of my life 99 inches. 52 in my yard at one point.

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Blowing snow is once again an issue here. Pretty intense in spots currently and it looks like we're in store for another ground blizzard tomorrow.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm no LRC expert, but last I heard the "cycle" is now 63-65 days.... How can anyone take a look at these numbers and temperature pattern from back in November, and think January is going to end well here in eastern Nebraska?

Hint: there's no precip and temps are way above normal almost every day.

Omaha, NE - November, 2021
Date Observed
Low
(F)
Observed
High
(F)
Normal
Low
(F)
Normal
High
(F)
Record
Low
Min
(F)
Year Record
High
Max
(F)
Year Observed
Precipitation
(inches)
Record
Precipitation
(inches)
Record
Precipitation
Year
Observed
Snow Fall
(inches)
Record
Snow Fall
(inches)
Record
Snow Fall
Year
1 32 46 36 57 17 1911 80 1887 0.00 1.38 1992 0.0 2.0 1941
2 27 51 36 57 9 1991 82 2005 0.00 0.74 2011 0.0 5.7 1928
3 36 50 35 56 6 1991 81 2020 0.00 1.81 2003 0.0 0.2 1901
4 36 59 35 56 3 1991 76 1909 0.00 1.19 1956 0.0 0.2 1901
5 42 64 35 55 15 1877 80 1945 0.00 1.00 2013 0.0 1.0 1901
6 40 69 34 55 7 1991 80 1914 0.00 1.99 2000 0.0 4.0 1990
7 47 71 34 54 -1 1991 77 2001 0.00 0.84 1918 0.0 2.0 1926
8 38 65 33 54 7 1991 82 1999 0.00 1.10 1977 0.0 4.1 1973
9 37 64 33 53 14 2018 73 1999 0.00 1.36 1940 0.0 3.4 1932
10 47 58 32 53 2 1986 78 1927 0.34 1.45 1879 0.0 2.7 1968
11 37 55 32 52 -3 1986 74 1964 0.00 1.42 1882 0.0 2.4 1929
12 31 37 32 52 1 1911 74 2005 T 1.97 2010 T 3.2 1929
13 28 50 31 52 -2 1986 83 1999 T 1.88 1909 0.0 7.9 1972
14 34 49 31 51 -3 1940 76 1964 0.00 0.91 1926 0.0 2.0 1947
15 39 59 30 51 3 1940 75 2001 0.00 1.63 1964 0.0 1.8 2014
16 39 71 30 50 3 1959 73 2016 0.00 1.38 1996 0.0 9.0 1886
17 36 50 30 50 4 1891 73 1953 0.00 2.01 1952 0.0 4.4 1886
18 27 44 29 49 8 1914 74 1908 0.00 1.62 1871 0.0 6.2 1957
19 26 52 29 49 1 1914 73 2020 0.00 1.88 1953 0.0 2.5 1985
20 34 61 28 48 4 1985 75 1933 0.00 0.84 1973 0.0 5.1 1956
21 27 51 28 48 -3 1937 72 2012 0.00 0.83 1898 0.0 8.3 1898
22 28 48 28 47 -4 1871 70 1966 0.00 0.80 1999 0.0 4.0 1909
23 30 67 27 47 1 1898 67 2021 0.00 1.95 1931 0.0 2.3 1971
24 31 53 27 46 3 1898 73 2011 0.00 1.18 2001 0.0 1.4 1972
25 23 35 26 46 3 1977 72 1960 0.00 0.80 1952 0.0 6.7 1952
26 27 55 26 45 1 1898 67 1914 0.00 1.59 1896 0.0 2.9 1931
27 33 62 26 45 -14 1887 67 2017 0.00 2.16 1983 0.0 8.5 1983
28 24 49 25 44 -4 1976 65 2006 0.00 0.47 1971 0.0 5.7 1971
29 33 67 25 44 -6 1875 72 1998 0.00 1.84 1997 0.0 6.1 1919
30 33 57 25 43 -9 1964 66 1922 T 1.65 1981 0.0 4.1 1974
Average 33.4 55.6 30.2 50.3   0.34
Normal = 1.45
  0.0
Normal = 1.7

IMO after a possible storm late next week things look bleak until the 2nd week of Feb.  Maybe if the pattern gets blocked up like the GFS shows we'll get a different result but lets see if that actually happens.  I remember this part of the pattern for being the cold is always 10 days away.  Maybe we'll get something different this time, the wet part of the pattern wasn't exactly wet here this time.  Good luck!

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So far 21/10 today! It's dropping into the single digits.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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