January 2022 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

#Chiberia has returned in Year 2022...slight wind out of the west was enough to bring 0F temps all the way to the shoreline on Friday morning.  

[Tom]

Boy, the EPS is having issues in the medium/long range...I haven't seen it flip back n forth so wildly yet this winter.  The GEFS have been locked on the transition back towards a sustained colder/wintry pattern that is poised to start next weekend.  First, we need to get through this "muted" pullback of sorts this coming week.  I'm worried that our snow pack will be gone by end of next week but thats ok if that means we have a storm system to track to replenish the White Gold.  The silver lining wrt to this weeks warm up is it'll give me an opportunity to take down the outdoor holiday decor bc I gotta feeling that once this pattern turns it'll be a while before it gets warm.

Last nights 0z EPS turned the corner towards the GEFS lead with this pattern in the extended.  It's really having issues in the NE PAC/NW NAMER region.  Suddenly, it is going all-in with the -EPO and following suit with the rest of the global models.  Not only do we see agreement in the blocking setting up but we are also seeing agreement with the storm system potential next weekend.

As an example, look at the flip from the very warm run yesterday (12z) and compare it to last nights (0z) run....

 

 

 

Vs....

 

Rumors of Storms??  Individual op runs are being rather erratic bc of the blocks that are setting up but the ensembles are painting some interesting runs for late next week.  The puck doesn't stop there as I see the pattern becomes loaded up.   IMO, I think there is a real fun period of tracking post 14th-16th storm system.  This lead system sets the stage and will snap the pattern back towards sustained winter for most of this Sub.

The GEFS are coming along pretty good as are the EPS members for a formidable system to effect the midsection of the nation up into the GL's.  Lot's of factors that will play into this systems development but one of the ingredients will be the Hudson Bay Block and what role will it play.  This system should be a slow mover but one thing is for certain, Winter will be coming back and it should have sustained legs.  There are several LR indicators that I'm using to suggest so and if you follow the BSR along with the Strat warm/cold pools that are developing....one can only fathom that the pattern will be ripe for storm tracking and the cold to press. 

0z GEFS members for next weekend...I'm guessing that by Mon we will start seeing these maps fill up some more...

Both the GEFS/EPS are in remarkable agreement for the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Trough to lock and rock...this is a huge clue for the LR pattern that should produce sustained cold for the lower 48.

 

Are the next 2-4 weeks going to rival what we saw last year?  Or the year prior to that where we saw multiple visits from the Polar Vortex???  We may be on the verge of something really special.  I'm prob going to get some heat from a few of you on here, but that's ok, bc I'm going all-in that this winter will be saved for many on here.  The backloaded winter of '21-'22 is set to begin.  The CPC boys and CFSv2 are on the same page and I'm sure the Euro Weeklies will trend this way deeper into FEB as well.

[Tom]

The year of the ground Blizzards continues up north for what has been a winter to remember so far...

[westMJim]

The official overnight low here at my house was 11 the official overnight low was +8. The snow fall totals at Grand Rapids are now 19.0" for January and for the season Grand Rapids is now at 33.3" This morning I have 11.4" of snow on the ground. At this time with mostly clear skies the temperature here is 12.

[Timmy Supercell]

We got to a low of 7 in Ashland. I thought it would get to 0 at least considering it was 9 when I was going to bed.

Now begins a warming trend.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

The year of the ground Blizzards continues up north for what has been a winter to remember so far...

It was so bad last night. I had to drive to Valley City for work, and it got so bad that I had to ride a train home. There were about 7 cars in the ditch near Casselton due to zero visibility and drifts across 94.

[james1976]

My trip to MN and Fargo was canceled due to Covid issues so I'm in IA this weekend. 

GFS trying to phase the late week system earlier. Has a 1052 high following it

[IMoveALot_Weather]

   SUMMARY...Ground blizzard conditions will likely increase in
   coverage and duration over the next several hours for parts of
   central to eastern North Dakota. While little accumulating snow is
   expected, widespread visibility reductions between 1/2 to 1/4 mile
   are likely and may persist through the mid to late afternoon hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations across the northern Plains
   show winds increasing and temperatures rapidly falling behind an
   east/southeastward moving cold front. Visibility reductions down to
   1/4 mile have been noted where winds are strongest across
   north-central ND, and regional web cams show periods of very low
   visibility in open country. Observed sustained winds between 25-30
   knots are on the high side of the anticipated wind speed
   distribution per morning ensemble guidance. Hi-res solutions that
   capture current winds speeds more accurately shows wind increasing
   through the remainder of the morning and into the early/mid
   afternoon hours before weakening gradually after 22-00 UTC. 

   While parts of central ND received light snowfall yesterday, most of
   eastern ND received anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of snowfall over the
   past 72 hours (per LSRs). Despite the age of the more substantial
   snow pack, blowing snow model probabilities suggesting blizzard
   conditions will become more widespread and sustained as winds
   approach the 28-32 knot range (with lower thresholds for locations
   that received light snow yesterday). 

   Current indications are that sustained winds across central to
   east-central ND will fall within this range by late morning/early
   afternoon, supporting areas of blizzard conditions with visibility
   reductions down to 1/4 mile - especially in open country. Any gusts
   above this range (which are likely for most of the outlined region)
   will support periods of even lower visibility. Winds should
   gradually abate late this afternoon, but pockets of blizzard
   conditions may persist along the western periphery of the Red River
   Valley where topographic affects may support breezier conditions.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Will it be Tom's epic dream world wave train of blizzards and extreme cold rarely seen or will today's 12Z GFS and the same pattern we've had that's denied almost all of us the predictions of an early start to winter and a white Thanksgiving and a white Christmas win out?

Stay tuned.....

 

[someweatherdude]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

Boy, the EPS is having issues in the medium/long range...I haven't seen it flip back n forth so wildly yet this winter.  The GEFS have been locked on the transition back towards a sustained colder/wintry pattern that is poised to start next weekend.  First, we need to get through this "muted" pullback of sorts this coming week.  I'm worried that our snow pack will be gone by end of next week but thats ok if that means we have a storm system to track to replenish the White Gold.  The silver lining wrt to this weeks warm up is it'll give me an opportunity to take down the outdoor holiday decor bc I gotta feeling that once this pattern turns it'll be a while before it gets warm.

Last nights 0z EPS turned the corner towards the GEFS lead with this pattern in the extended.  It's really having issues in the NE PAC/NW NAMER region.  Suddenly, it is going all-in with the -EPO and following suit with the rest of the global models.  Not only do we see agreement in the blocking setting up but we are also seeing agreement with the storm system potential next weekend.

As an example, look at the flip from the very warm run yesterday (12z) and compare it to last nights (0z) run....

 

 

 

Vs....

 

Rumors of Storms??  Individual op runs are being rather erratic bc of the blocks that are setting up but the ensembles are painting some interesting runs for late next week.  The puck doesn't stop there as I see the pattern becomes loaded up.   IMO, I think there is a real fun period of tracking post 14th-16th storm system.  This lead system sets the stage and will snap the pattern back towards sustained winter for most of this Sub.

The GEFS are coming along pretty good as are the EPS members for a formidable system to effect the midsection of the nation up into the GL's.  Lot's of factors that will play into this systems development but one of the ingredients will be the Hudson Bay Block and what role will it play.  This system should be a slow mover but one thing is for certain, Winter will be coming back and it should have sustained legs.  There are several LR indicators that I'm using to suggest so and if you follow the BSR along with the Strat warm/cold pools that are developing....one can only fathom that the pattern will be ripe for storm tracking and the cold to press. 

0z GEFS members for next weekend...I'm guessing that by Mon we will start seeing these maps fill up some more...

Both the GEFS/EPS are in remarkable agreement for the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Trough to lock and rock...this is a huge clue for the LR pattern that should produce sustained cold for the lower 48.

 

Are the next 2-4 weeks going to rival what we saw last year?  Or the year prior to that where we saw multiple visits from the Polar Vortex???  We may be on the verge of something really special.  I'm prob going to get some heat from a few of you on here, but that's ok, bc I'm going all-in that this winter will be saved for many on here.  The backloaded winter of '21-'22 is set to begin.  The CPC boys and CFSv2 are on the same page and I'm sure the Euro Weeklies will trend this way deeper into FEB as well.

I really hope you're right.  I will say that things are looking more promising.  Last year, KC managed to be both north and south of the above normal snowfall.  The cold pushed so far south in February, that we missed the heavier snow to our south.  Prior to that time, the snow was mostly up in Nebraska and Iowa.  Especially around Omaha and Des Moines, which had much AN snowfall.  Hopefully this year, we can get some payback for being neglected during the best parts of last year.

 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I really hope you're right.  I will say that things are looking more promising.  Last year, KC managed to be both north and south of the above normal snowfall.  The cold pushed so far south in February, that we missed the heavier snow to our south.  Prior to that time, the snow was mostly up in Nebraska and Iowa.  Especially around Omaha and Des Moines, which had much AN snowfall.  Hopefully this year, we can get some payback for being neglected during the best parts of last year.

 

I do feel your region is overdue and with the teleconnections lining up in the extended it does appear the possibilities for snow chances are heightened in this type of pattern for the S MW region.

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Will it be Tom's epic dream world wave train of blizzards and extreme cold rarely seen or will today's 12Z GFS and the same pattern we've had that's denied almost all of us the predictions of an early start to winter and a white Thanksgiving and a white Christmas win out?

Stay tuned.....

 

White Gold all day...I'm not to sure nature will be so kind for your back yard....

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Highs right at the freezing mark are gonna feel so bizarre next week omg

At least it'll finally get rid of the black ice.

[Andie]

Close Encounters with clouds all day.  Heavy thick clouds. Low ceiling. At one point I could watch them drop and roll over the golf course then later lift.  

54*. Humidity 90%

No precipitation but it feels so wet outside you could clap your hands and it would rain!  Same thing tomorrow.  

Monday clouds will move out but temps will stay the same.  Humidity will drop to 60%. Winter in Texas is a blanket of moist and cold.  Then suddenly sunny and windy. 

[Timmy Supercell]

We're still halfway snow covered, and seeing this (could be thundery?) on Paducah's radar coming in. 

[snowstorm83]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

White Gold all day...I'm not to sure nature will be so kind for your back yard....

I always enjoy reading your thoughts and appreciate when you mention possibilities for Nebraska as well, this sub forum covers massive area. Snow climo here is iffy at best. We were very fortunate last year. OMA/LNK averages 26-27" compared to 38" in Chicago. Most of that difference is probably due to those years Chicago recieves 20-30"+ more than here  I'm frustrated this year myself but I wouldn't take anything personally. 

[james1976]

Fog really settled in over the past couple hours. Got some freezing drizzle going on as well. Currently 28°

[BMT]

Interstate 80 from Iowa city to Davenport is a mess. 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

23 minutes ago, BMT said:

Interstate 80 from Iowa city to Davenport is a mess. 

I just noticed that on Google Maps. Is it all freezing drizzle? 

[Timmy Supercell]

37/7 today, rain coming, sad snowman graphic.

[Niko]

Looks like icy conditions could develop tanite. Brutal cold follows this. Mondays nite lows here imby go below zero. Definitely coldest nite of the season.

[Tom]

Numerous reports of traffic accidents downstate and locally...ice is never so friendly, esp when people haven't really experienced that much winter driving conditions.  My patio deck has a sheet of ice on it but temps have risen above freezing (33-34F ) for a period of time since late last night.  All of this will re-freeze rapidly as the potent Arctic Front makes its way through later this morning.

The snow pack has a glaze over it and has compacted as a result.  Prob down to a 2.5" snow depth.  Actually, ORD just reported an official 3" snow depth.

 

[Tom]

Speaking of the current status of the MW snow cover, one can see where nature has been kind and nasso much...

 

 

Dang, the eastern shores of LM have done quite well in the snow dept with an avg snow depth of 10-20"...

 

I'd love to see this tomorrow morning before the next surge of arctic air....tracking the arctic weenie band....

 

[Tom]

Who's ready to storm track?  When the models were showing zilch, I dug deep and analyzed the pattern knowing they were missing a storm...I love it when the models pick up on a pattern that comes to mind.  That Day 9-10 map the Euro flashed a couple days ago still has a chance of coming into fruition and covering a lot of the Sub near the I-80 corridor.  I like what I'm seeing off the Canadien/GEPS/GEFS at this range.  Just for eye candy....

 

Last nights 0z Euro is missing the cut-off energy near the Baja this past run.  If we are to see a large scale phasing storm we need that energy to kick out ahead of the northern stream coming S/SE out of the southern prairies of Canada.  We've seen numerous similar situations and storm tracks as such since the beginning of this LRC.  So, when people ask why isn't this pattern producing?  I fully understand the frustration we have been dealt with in recent weeks when we the pattern just wasn't cooperating.  I will say, that now the forthcoming pattern is turning the corner and blocks are showing up in the models where we were lacking them in previous weeks.  For example, the 0z Canadien and its ensemble would be a perfect example of when "things come together"....

 

The vision I had for this system was for both energies to phase together, esp since we will have the downstream blocking...marry that with the Hudson Bay "Banana HP" it will play a big role "seeding" the cold.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Woah, now this is a complete flip in the EPS over the past couple runs...geeze, it is now seeing the expansive NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge and going all-in on the cold/snow post 15th.  Not only that, but the next storm following next weekends system is dialing up between the 19th-21st that has the "look" of a Big Dog coming out of the TX PanHandle region.  The GEFS are showing this potential as well that should encompass the S MW region.  Snow Blitz Jan' 22???

 

On a side note, what is being suggested among all the models near the Aleutian Islands from the 15th and beyond is a thing of beauty.....this is what one would call a classic example of producing a winter pattern for the eastern CONUS.  Using the BSR as guidance, this pretty much would solidify the idea that this colder pattern has legs to run...I mean, in triathlon style!

[westMJim]

The overnight temperature rose to 34 here. And there was some drizzle as well. Before the temperatures went above 32 there was some freezing drizzle. The current temperature here is 32 with cloudy skies. There is now 10.0" of snow on the ground here at my house. For the month of January GR is now at 19.0" of snow fall and for the season so far GR is at 38.8" At Muskegon their January snow fall is at 15.9 and for the season it is now at 25.7" To the east at Lansing there now have 6.4" for January and now are at 18.9 for the season.

[Tom]

Ice ice baby…

 

 

[Clinton]

Missed out on the ice here yesterday which was perfectly ok with me, we had drizzle and fog all day.  Sunny with average temps today.  I'm curious what shows up on the 12z models today, the 6z EC was much different from the 0z.

[Timmy Supercell]

I think the wildlife here likes the rain more than the snow. The spring birds are chirping up a storm right now lol

[Niko]

The 18z GFS has a massive hit for NYC, LI, CT, and the Jersey shore and points north for later on this weekend. It bears watching. Not sure how this might affect our weather here in the Midwest, but it definitely needs to be monitored in the coming days. As shown on this run, it would be a big bomb cyclone with a very powerful blizzard over LI and other surrounding coastal locales. The Gfs has a low with a barometric pressure of 28.30 off the coast on Friday (Hurricane like conditions )Anyway ya slice it, get ready because this pattern coming up will get explosive for a lot of peeps on here, whether you are on the EC or the Midwest. Someone is going to get slammed real hard!!!

[someweatherdude]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Woah, now this is a complete flip in the EPS over the past couple runs...geeze, it is now seeing the expansive NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge and going all-in on the cold/snow post 15th.  Not only that, but the next storm following next weekends system is dialing up between the 19th-21st that has the "look" of a Big Dog coming out of the TX PanHandle region.  The GEFS are showing this potential as well that should encompass the S MW region.  Snow Blitz Jan' 22???

 

On a side note, what is being suggested among all the models near the Aleutian Islands from the 15th and beyond is a thing of beauty.....this is what one would call a classic example of producing a winter pattern for the eastern CONUS.  Using the BSR as guidance, this pretty much would solidify the idea that this colder pattern has legs to run...I mean, in triathlon style!

I seriously can't remember the last time a true Panhandle Hook happened, and especially one that benefitted KC.  I have zero confidence that it will happen (not because of you, Tom.  Just because I don't trust models, etc.)  But it would certainly be nice to get reacquainted with that type of system.

[OmahaSnowFan]

22 hours ago, Tom said:

White Gold all day...I'm not to sure nature will be so kind for your back yard....

So back when this was predicted, were you using the LRC or do you remember which method you were using that didn’t work out since there’s no wave train or a powerhouse system now through the 11th?

Same here?

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has become more interesting at the end of the week.  The GFS is much farther northeast, dropping snow only on the northern lakes.  This is the system the Canadian model has been bullish on recently, although the 12z Canadian is much weaker.  It will just depend on how the energy comes together and how sharp the trough is digging out of Canada.

Update:  The UK looks similar to the Euro.

[Madtown]

Bring it on! Just got back from a quick morning ride. -7 at the start up to 0 now. First tracks down 40mi of the 90mi ride!

[Tom]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So back when this was predicted, were you using the LRC or do you remember which method you were using that didn’t work out since there’s no wave train or a powerhouse system now through the 11th?

Same here?

The system tracked across the Upper MW instead and was a potent storm earlier this week.  It came a couple days earlier than the predicted time frame. If you recall, there were Blizzard warnings issued for the Upper MW.

[westMJim]

The temperature is now down to 23 and windy here. With the sun shining thru thin clouds there are now a few flurries even with the sunshine.

[Niko]

Bammm!

[OmahaSnowFan]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

The system tracked across the Upper MW instead and was a potent storm earlier this week.  It came a couple days earlier than the predicted time frame. If you recall, there were Blizzard warnings issued for the Upper MW.

I do remember that storm. So in other words the LRC is “a storm will be somewhere sometime in the next 7 days” forecasting tool now?

[james1976]

GFS continues to keep the late week system across the GL's

[Tom]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I do remember that storm. So in other words the LRC is “a storm will be somewhere sometime in the next 7 days” forecasting tool now?

No…I was off…plus, i was using the BSR  to predict a system out 2 weeks.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

48 minutes ago, Tom said:

No…I was off…plus, i was using the BSR  to predict a system out 2 weeks.  

It seems like the LRC has been pretty useless this season.

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It seems like the LRC has been pretty useless this season.

It has its moments…

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS - much closer to the other models.

[Hawkeye]

Canadian has switched to a look similar to the other models as well, but is a bit farther ne than the others.

[Hawkeye]

00 UK 

[Madtown]

Well this would be pretty incredible if it verifies

[OmahaSnowFan]

Nebraska and Kansas peeps: we still have February!!

[someweatherdude]

Two things. 
 

1. I said it back in December and I’m going to double down.  KC is looking at single digit snowfall totals for 2021-22.  The universe has gone out of its way this year to make snow miss us.  And there’s nothing in the foreseeable future to suggest that’s going to change.  What energy does come near us consistently fizzles out.  
 

2.  This year has eroded much of my already-reticent belief in the LRC.  December looked nothing like October.  Using the LRC, Gary predicted above average snowfall for KC and an active severe weather season this spring.  The snowfall isn’t panning out, and he recently started talking about drought.  If the LRC can accurately predict upper air and pressure patterns, but can’t predict actual surface weather, I don’t see it being useful for anyone outside of academics in our lifetime.  

The lame winter in KC this year is frustrating but it’s not the only reason for my growing doubts about the LRC.   The doubt comes from the fact that whatever cycle there may be, that cycle isn’t making weather any more predictable for a given spot at a given time.   It’s a shame because I like Gary.  And I’d like the LRC to be a useful tool.   

 

[bud2380]

The 18z Euro control was much further northeast than the 12z Euro op model. We’ll see if the 00z op model follows suit 

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro is nearly identical to the 12z... well sw of the others.  A little bit of this through CR is actually from a weak clipper the Euro has suddenly introduced early Thursday morning.  It's possible that lead clipper could help keep the big one farther sw.