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January 2022 Observations & Discussion


Tom
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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Nebraska and Kansas peeps: we still have February!!

Every winter since 2009 in a nutshell.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I'm gonna be in Duluth Thursday-Sunday. I'll have one helluva time there if GFS/GDPS are correct.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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All of a sudden, there is a pop up clipper that the models are trying to track through the GL's on Thursday.  Appetizer for the weekends stronger hybrid clipper??  0z GEFS a bit more enthusiastic...nothing more than a fresh coating and def will "mute" the warm up that was forecast to extend through Friday around the GL's region.  We may be able to keep the snow pack in tact if there are enough clouds....keeping hopes up!

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14 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So back when this was predicted, were you using the LRC or do you remember which method you were using that didn’t work out since there’s no wave train or a powerhouse system now through the 11th?

084C1639-8842-45F5-B322-CECF690B18C9.thumb.jpeg.626965d92274f805e4672f8a8f1c2437.jpeg

floop-gfs-2022010712.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.639a64b788f8d625c5f9bfbd68460e07.gif

Same here?

0DEB34F9-9DDD-4805-8CF9-04390318DE37.thumb.jpeg.cacd2b9250386bc1f9d824b1548b95eb.jpeg

floop-gfs-2022010900.sfct_anom.conus.gif.a06a7b75b8f72aefb451824d8cc02b2b.gif

While on the topic of critiquing my LR call (but not the ones I've been correct on)...did the GL's glacier expand??  Let's see here...Dec 27th snow cover...I'm not perfect, far from it...but to give an advance notice or prediction 10+ days out that the snow cover could expand S/SE over the MW was a pretty darn good call.  

nsm_depth_2021122705_National.jpg

 

JAN 2nd Snow cover...

nsm_depth_2022010205_National.jpg

 

 

JAN 7th Snow cover...

nsm_depth_2022010705_National.jpg

 

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Buckle up, Giddy up....sharpen up those pencils...the GL's/MW region is in for a fun ride and it all begins this week... @someweatherdudeI can understand your frustration, believe me man, there have been a few winters that just sucked here in Chicago as well.  I can totally see why your just not feeling it this season.  I'm sticking with my guns that this month will deliver for your area and the S MW.  All signs I look for point that way and the models are certainly backing up support to that idea.  This gives me confidence in my call that you will benefit from at least 1 big storm by months end.  The upcoming pattern that is unfolding is ripe for the S MW and eastern Sub.

 

Case in point, the 0z EPS keeps heading bolder on the cold/snow post 15th (a few days later for KC peeps)...on a side note, the eastern GL's never go AN temp wise.  MI peeps must be happy to see that!

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I'll post some LR clues that suggest + results for cold to return to our Sub:

#1) Crashing SOI...

Screen Shot 2022-01-10 at 3.39.13 AM.png

 

#2) Blocking, Blocking, Blocking...stout -EPO/-WPO, (+) PNA trending towards slightly (-) in the Week 2 period...

 

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#3) Neutral to (-) AO/NAO combo...

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#4) The BSR & East Asian Rule both continue to be lock step that the extended pattern into the early part of FEB remains on the cold/wintry theme.

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Temperatures held steady overnight and the overnight low here was 13 at this time there is some very light snow falling with a temperature of 14. Temperatures are forecasted to hold steady today as the high is guessed at 15. The snow on the ground has compacted down to 8" here as of this morning. All in all this week looks to he ho-mum with not a lot happing other than a warm up with the winds expected early in the warm up it will not feel all that warm. 

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13 degrees with inconsistent light tiny-flaked flurries.  Feels like winter.   Hopefully we get about freezing this week so I can finish clearing my driveway.  I hate that I couldn't get it all clear before it compacted into ice due to being sick all last week.  

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It's been a while since I've read an AFD from LOT discussing the pattern ahead...

Quote
.LONG TERM...
Updated at 326 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022

Wednesday through Sunday...

Broad upper-level northwesterly flow will prevail from the middle of
next week onward as a low-level baroclinic zone becomes established
from the Dakotas to the Mid-Atlantic states. Such a regime typically
acts as a highway for clipper systems in our neck of the woods every
1-2 days, though the baroclinic zone itself may end up rather broad
and unfocused (e.g. guidance is presenting plenty of variance in
where each clipper will track). Ensemble guidance appears to favor
our area on the warm and dry side of the baroclinic zone with
temperatures at or above freezing Wednesday through Friday, though
confidence is lower than average. The best chance for a clipper
impacting our area appears to be next weekend. For now, we will
cautiously advertise a dry forecast through Friday keeping in mind
chances for snow may need to be introduced earlier as guidance comes
into better agreement.

 

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

While on the topic of critiquing my LR call (but not the ones I've been correct on)...did the GL's glacier expand??  Let's see here...Dec 27th snow cover...I'm not perfect, far from it...but to give an advance notice or prediction 10+ days out that the snow cover could expand S/SE over the MW was a pretty darn good call.  

nsm_depth_2021122705_National.jpg

 

JAN 2nd Snow cover...

nsm_depth_2022010205_National.jpg

 

 

JAN 7th Snow cover...

nsm_depth_2022010705_National.jpg

 

Congratulations. You predicted at least 1/2” of snow would fall somewhere in the MW over the next 2 weeks in freaking January! Still doesn’t change the LRC is garbage. Is it 43, 48, 52, 57, 60, or 65 days in length this year?

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This winter is running behind last year's dismal showing here in T town.

We are sitting at 1.7" of snow compared to 5.1" last year at this time before finishing with 15.5"  (norm 17.1").

We've had less than 12" of snow in 5 of the last 7 winters and may be headed for another.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

You can't make this shi* up.  I give up.  KC snow drought continues.  I'm out.  I don't have anything nice to say, so I'm done saying anything.  Good luck to everyone else (except those in Des Moines).  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh210-228.thumb.gif.41de67e1a09cda31006d3ae9f466bca3.gif

 

And it’s supposed to be my area that isn’t going to get any white gold coming up, but you’re supposed to be golden…

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14 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Not a surprise to anyone, but here’s confirmation of December’s heat blast.

1/2 the country with it’s top 2 warmest December ever and the country overall with it’s warmest at almost 7 degrees above average 😲😲
 

9977ED0C-2CFB-4295-A2F5-C67AF771B685.thumb.jpeg.0b3b9b5c11656fbec87f450e7acd0b25.jpeg8AFAFDBA-D59C-4A48-A1D3-6AC332A91507.thumb.jpeg.c160c9657f849ce7edf888feb3b6eeea.jpeg

Yeah winter is pretty much jan-apr now....if we're lucky lol. Just kinda seems like the seasons have moved a bit.

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12 hours ago, tStacsh said:

13 degrees with inconsistent light tiny-flaked flurries.  Feels like winter.   Hopefully we get about freezing this week so I can finish clearing my driveway.  I hate that I couldn't get it all clear before it compacted into ice due to being sick all last week.  

Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th.

Man, I was literally wondering about you last couple days. That stuff is real. Speedy recovery to you🙏

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th.

Hope you’re better and don’t have any long term effects. My dad had COVID in December 2020, and then about 3 months later developed tremors in his hands from the COVID that he still has. Forced him to quit working and retire a couple years early. Still doesn’t have his taste and smell fully back either.

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th.

Praying for a speedy and full recovery Jaster...I'm very sorry to hear about your sickness with the RONA...I'll be thinking of you my friend.

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The cloud cover held the temperatures up last night and the low both here and officially at GRR was +9. There was a trace of new snow fall the official January total still stands at 19.0" for the season it remains at 38.8" and here at my house there is 7.5" of snow on the ground. At this time it is cloudy and 13 here.

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This pattern we are currently in is a great set-up for i-95 corridor for major winterstorms.  Matter of time b4 they get clobbered.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/gfs.JPG.d204e34c49c22c976c16c7911e6c3b89.JPG

Meanwhile, a fast little disturbance might give my area  a little snow Wednesday/Wed nite.

 

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Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th.

No good, Hope you have a speedy recovery!  I had a feeling when you haven't been posting.  

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Speaking of, I've fallen off here last weekend when we got the snow and Corona doubled down to put me in the hospital since the 4th.

Hope you get past this quickly!

If you need a warmer, snowless, more spring-like climate to help you recover you can always come here! 😉

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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Got to 15 degrees here this morning. 3rd coolest low so far in the season but no fog around. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looks like winter is over for now in SMI.  Bummer.   Nothing but cold and dry.  No snow coming.  Bring on spring I guess after the 2 weeks of cold and boring.  Enjoy it everyone else.  

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19 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like winter is over for now in SMI.  Bummer.   Nothing but cold and dry.  No snow coming.  Bring on spring I guess after the 2 weeks of cold and boring.  Enjoy it everyone else.  

Euro not showing any real measurable snowfall for Ashland KY but that can change. The area I used to live in was no stranger to late season snowstorms. There were a few winters the 3rd-4th weeks of February did some pretty good ones. I wouldn't quit until middle of March.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 10
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/-

[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like winter is over for now in SMI.  Bummer.   Nothing but cold and dry.  No snow coming.  Bring on spring I guess after the 2 weeks of cold and boring.  Enjoy it everyone else.  

Are you serious!  Lol, you just got blitzed with 12”+ of snow and now your complaining?  Sheesh, don’t get greedy bud!  Would you rather have a warm cutter and wipe your snow pack and then leave you with brown grass for a couple weeks?  I would sit back and enjoy real winter scenery.  NW Flow also would increase LES chances.  I’d gladly switch places with you.

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Have not posted at all so far this winter at it has been lackluster for many except for the Norther Tier States. Looks the same get hit again and Iowa might get into the action this weekend but Chi-Town will again get shutout. Not much happening the next 14 days. so most likely our only hope will be Frebruary if we are to see anything substantial. Cold and dry sucks.

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40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Are you serious!  Lol, you just got blitzed with 12”+ of snow and now your complaining?  Sheesh, don’t get greedy bud!  Would you rather have a warm cutter and wipe your snow pack and then leave you with brown grass for a couple weeks?  I would sit back and enjoy real winter scenery.  NW Flow also would increase LES chances.  I’d gladly switch places with you.

Come on,  I'm trying to jinx the weather gods!  

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I've finally risen above freezing. This is the first time since 12/24, which is actually not that long if you think about it. 33*F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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42 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I've finally risen above freezing. This is the first time since 12/24, which is actually not that long if you think about it. 33*F.

Break out the shorts. That must seem very balmy compare to what you have been dealing w.

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Snowfall as of today May, 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

Break out the shorts. That must seem very balmy compare to what you have been dealing w.

It is. I'm taking advantage of it to get some cleaning and other outdoor work done. Not exactly pleasant walking to the other side of the complex where the dumpster is and back when it's subzero.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Pretty depressing for the coldest days of the year and the "dead" of winter.  

- Much of the next 7 days features dry weather -

We will be in a northwest flow much of the next 7 days with
shortwaves rotating through the area at times. The issue is that
moisture is not very deep and the systems are rather weak. A
shortwave moves through on Thursday and could see additional light
snow or flurries with it, but again any amounts would be very
light. The clipper that looked like it may impact the area Friday
night into Saturday is now forecast to move almost due south in
the Plains, so its precipitation misses us to the west. Maybe the
best looking wave of the forecast is out on Sunday night into
Monday, but it looks to lose strength in favor of a strong east
coast system. So, its precipitation also ends up being light.
Bottom line is no major systems are expected to affect our area
through next Tuesday. We will end up slightly above normal for
temperatures the next 2 days and the a colder than normal signal
is in place over the weekend and into next week.
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We were able to hit 40º in the city this afternoon, a bit higher than expected.  Wednesday's high has also been raised a bit.  We will certainly be melting some snow.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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