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January 2022 Observations & Discussion


Tom

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2022-01-17 09_43_25-Text Products for LSR Issued by RLX.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Looks like a swing and a miss up here on the clipper tomorrow unless the GFS beats them all. Trails are beat up pretty bad from the insane traffic this past weekend.

My nws point forecast says 3-5" tomorrow. That seems to be all in on the loner gfs. I'd be happy with a couple inches. 

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On 1/16/2022 at 1:28 PM, Tom said:

14th-16th system...Check...Hudson Bay Block & slow mover...Check...Sustained Cold...Check....Visits from the Polar Vortex are coming later this week and into Next week...NW Flow will produce several systems to traverse the GL's (1st one this Wed/Thu) the second system next weekend...Check...you got anything else??? 

I don't see to many people in IA/KC/MN/WI complaining about the snow they have OTG, esp the Big Snow that just hit them.  Meanwhile, my snow cover is sitting at 1" and grass showing up.  I'm not being a "debbie downer" bc that's not my DNA.  I am an optimist at heart and always seek what is fun and exciting during the winter months.  That's why I post the way I do but I also do suggest (at times) bad patterns when they show up in the LR.  

 

 

What I shared specifically was your posts that said "post storm 14-16th." There's no active pattern of fun storm tracking showing up on any of the models, unless you love clippers bringing an inch or two at a time. Nor cold rivaling last year's sustained 2 week outbreak when records were broken. Cold shots? Sure. Followed by warm shots and rinse and repeat. "Verge of something special"? Huh?

I do think I have realized something though in reference to your past posts. It appears I've been misunderstanding you when you say "the majority of this forum" or "most of this sub", you actually meant the majority of the number of people on here, not the majority of the area that this forum covers. That clears it up considering the majority of the posters here are close to the Great Lakes where yes it will be much colder and full of clippers.

I'll also take note that when you use the hyperbole you always do, it's just your excitement and positive outlook that's coming through in your posts and to take it with a grain of salt.

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I'm curious to know why the models are so different with the temperature across Iowa Friday morning as the ridge moves overhead.  The GFS is predicting -7º in Cedar Rapids.  The NAM is predicting -5º.  Meanwhile, the Euro continues to predict -20s across Iowa, including -24º in Cedar Rapids.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

MJO forecast for the rest of January.

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

I'm seeing some interesting EPS/GEFS members for early next week in and around your area and into the OHV.  Let's see how the models handle that cut-off energy.  What are your thoughts for end of the month?  It appears the models are heading towards the west coast trough-like pattern and Upper MW cold pattern and a reversal in the PNA.  This should set up a more active SW Flow pattern.

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Temps surge into the low 40's today and will prob nuke the rest of the snow pack.  Prob a good idea to take down my lights and decor outside today.  It was a nice ride to have some snow OTG since about New Year's till today.  Time to rebuild it and hopefully cash in on the NW Flow clipper regime late this weekend into early next week.

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There was (is) a coating of ice from yesterdays freezing mist. There remains 3.5" of a snow/ice combination on the ground but there are some thin spots as well with some ground showing. There now has been 1" of more of snow cover at Grand Rapids for 22 days in a row and a total of 29 for the season so far. The 30 year average is 67 days of snow cover the most on record is 124 in 1903/04 and the least on record is 23 in 1982/83. The last year there was 54. The overnight low here was 27 and at this time it is cloudy and 30.

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50 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm seeing some interesting EPS/GEFS members for early next week in and around your area and into the OHV.  Let's see how the models handle that cut-off energy.  What are your thoughts for end of the month?  It appears the models are heading towards the west coast trough-like pattern and Upper MW cold pattern and a reversal in the PNA.  This should set up a more active SW Flow pattern.

I also noticed some of the ensembles trying to put together a storm here a week from today.  The last cycle did produce a 1/4 inch of rain here with the frontal passage but the storm really got it's act together over the Ohio Valley.  Sometimes though those troughs can carve out further west in Jan and Feb so I'm keeping an eye on it.  As far as the end of the month the 0z Euro Control shows a nice storm but temps are marginal, if we can block in the cold it could be a nice one.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I also noticed some of the ensembles trying to put together a storm here a week from today.  The last cycle did produce a 1/4 inch of rain here with the frontal passage but the storm really got it's act together over the Ohio Valley.  Sometimes though those troughs can carve out further west in Jan and Feb so I'm keeping an eye on it.  As far as the end of the month the 0z Euro Control shows a nice storm but temps are marginal, if we can block in the cold it could be a nice one.

Ya, I've been seeing some interesting runs from the EC over the past couple days.  I think with a -EPO/-WPO and neutral to -PNA there would be enough cold air in the pattern to produce a winter storm in that late month timeframe.  It sucks to see the NAO/AO go back + thought.

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Looks like we stay BN for the rest of this month, unfortunately, dry comes along w/ it for mby, unless something changes. Still have some snows here and there, so that makes it look a little wintry. Bitter cold air spills in next week.   Still remains dry, although, I think there are a few systems to watch that might trigger some snowfall here in S MI.

Btw: I saw that SMI missed out on a major winterstorm. Izza was just 40miles to my east. Ouch!! So close! That darn H.P Area that was on top of us really kept it from moving any further west, but D**n, that was too close. Flurries were seen falling in downtown Detroit from that storm. Anyhow, time to move on to the next potential!

Note: EC by weeks end could be looking at an all snowevent and could be major winterstorm for the coastline. A weaker storm for Thursday's time frame, could be followed by a much stronger system for Friday into Saturday. So, a one - two punch for them coming up.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/AnaFrontSnow18Jan7a.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/StormPotentialFriSat17Jan.png?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Cold with no snow outside light lake effect for the foreseeable future.  Depressing.  Snowpack dwindling.  No measurable snow 2 weeks now and counting.  Where's the storms?  Nothing coming except some weak clippers, maybe?  On to February?  You'd think in this pattern we'd get some snow here, but nope,  too dry, even for LES.  

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The lack of lake effect is something else. Same as last year up here. Not as bad, but far from normal farther north in the Keweenaw while they have had plenty, still not up to normal standards. Especially with the cold shots that have migrated through.

Even today....clipper moves through large temp/ lake temp differences. NNW wind and even in the UP maybe 1-3" of lake effect after the clipper. Not saying always, but that should spell 5-10" if not more off the lake. 

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How many ground blizzards am I at now this winter? Jfc

Quote
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions. Winds
  gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very
  cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 45 below
  zero. For the Winter Weather Advisory, blowing snow expected.
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until 9 PM CST this evening.
  For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight tonight to noon CST
  Thursday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 9 PM this
  evening to midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow will significantly reduce
  visibility in open country. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the evening commute. The dangerously cold wind chills
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10
  minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

Use caution while outside. Wear appropriate winter clothing.

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas.

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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low to mid 60s out in central Nebraska about 70 miles west of here. We've made it 55.6 IMBY so far and that's the current temp. It's always weird to walk outside when you see snow on the ground, and for it to be warm enough for just a tshirt.

Quite the change coming tonight though as the cold front moves through and keeps us in the teens for highs Wednesday and Thursday before we warm back up.

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Someone relieve my anxiety and tell me when the DFW area will see rain?!   
Really need it.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Power plant in the area...happens every now and then

Screenshot_20220118-164006_Facebook.jpg

I remember getting that when I lived in Lincoln. But as far as I know, there are no plants in the area big enough to produce substantial snowfall.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Interesting, convective snow rolls causing the snow?! WTH is that?? This is from the NWS up there.

 

increasing winds, winds gusting over to 50
mph is expected to push into the southern valley and temps falling
into the single digits along with horizontal convective rolls are
producing snow showers and based on satellite trends, have
increased in coverage, pushing into the central valley. Unless
snow streamers or HCRs are moving overhead the blizzard
conditions are in the primarily for open country. Across SE ND
winds have coupled and are mixing stronger 850mb winds down to the
sfc with 58mph measured at Valley City this past hour.
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Its a beautiful evening outside w temps in the low 30s. I consider this to be a heatwave. Much bitter cold coming. Tomorrows highs in the mid to upper 30s. Break out the shorts😄

Btw: not sure why we were in the AN precipitation for January, where it has been totally the opposite. Dry as can be. Big bust there by NOAA.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Man, the EC could be in for a beautiful ride late this week: Big cities..lookout if all pans out;

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/StormSetup18Jan10a.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/SnowIcePotential18JanChan10a.jpg?w=632

If trends continue to point toward a stronger storm developing, then areas along the I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic and New England could be in for not only travel-snarling snow, but also a storm that could bury many locations under a foot or more of powdery snow. Blowing and drifting of snow could occur due to gusty winds in that scenario, adding to the hazards.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

low to mid 60s out in central Nebraska about 70 miles west of here. We've made it 55.6 IMBY so far and that's the current temp. It's always weird to walk outside when you see snow on the ground, and for it to be warm enough for just a tshirt.

Sioux City, the one location in Iowa with no snow cover, hit 62º this afternoon. 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Snowfall amounts from Jan 16-17 storm. Ashland just misses the yellow by a few miles.

272045881_291868012976617_1851115446131463628_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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My friends out in OH got clobbered with 12-14" in parts of Akron, OH, however, just the NE they received over 24" of powder.  Iirc, this part of the region had been missed by storms that tracked over head and were mostly rain to snow or mixed systems over the past few years.  Nature certainly balanced it out with this storm.  I don't think I've seen this much snow over parts of OH in a long time.

1.png

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The temperature reached 41 here overnight but is now down to 34 with cloudy skies. The snow pack in really showing its age now and is down to just 2.5" here. Snow chances while not zero do not look all that great for areas away from the lake at this time. There could be some better chances of snow later on as we head into February but that is still too far off to say for sure.

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