PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Bryant]

With that said, would be nice to see the Euro put out some nice snow totals on the 12z

[Esquimalt]

How is it that the wrf and the gfs show me getting 8-10 inches and the RGEM and euro show me getting 3 lol? I’ve never had a situation where within 12 hours of the event theres been that much variation 

[gusky]

5 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

GFS, not Euro.

Yes thank you, that's what I was intending to say. My hands didn't coordinate with my brain.

[gusky]

Leavenworth has 19-35" of snow depth in this image

[The Blob]

Fox 12 broke the news about having a midnight high for today.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Yes thank you, that's what I was intending to say. My hands didn't coordinate with my brain.

It’s alright. I’d love it if that were the Euro map.

[Blizzard777]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z 3km NAM for 4PM today. Snow from Seattle northward and W over to Kitsap. Rain/snow mix from Tacoma southward with the southern EPSL getting warm nosed and going straight to rain, probably due to downsloping easterlies. That's great.

By 6PM it shows King County southward being pretty much rain with Snohomish northward and Kitsap still snowing. By 8PM Kitsap has mostly mixed out and Snohomish is on it's way to rain as well. Totals through 1AM at the bottom. Must be a lot of very wet snow because the dark blues don't necessarily correlate to high accumulations. 

Another night of live entertainment on the forum!  If anything…..will enjoy the snow through everyone’s reports and excitement!  

[RentonHill]

19 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Always

Or is it saying thats an early switchover to rain? Whats total precip map say? 

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

How is it that the wrf and the gfs show me getting 8-10 inches and the RGEM and euro show me getting 3 lol? I’ve never had a situation where within 12 hours of the event theres been that much variation 

I expect a full report later on of the actual event so we can hold these models that gave false hope accountable!!! 

[gusky]

EPS has also been trending up, however slightly.

[gusky]

Just now, gusky said:

EPS has also been trending up, however slightly.

But temps VERY marginal

[gusky]

Oh and here y'all go, idk if anyone wants this but feel free to add anything you want. For the hard workers of the night crew

https://open.spotify.com/playlist/0C386XfqyBpxIesnJMc2yX?si=aada62c16f4e4fa2

 

[RentonHill]

[gusky]

Southerlies start to push in tonight. Let's hope we can get some good snow before then!

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

Oh and here y'all go, idk if anyone wants this but feel free to add anything you want. For the hard workers of the night crew

https://open.spotify.com/playlist/0C386XfqyBpxIesnJMc2yX?si=aada62c16f4e4fa2

 

Are these quasi-weather/nighttime related tracks?

[gusky]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Are these quasi-weather/nighttime related tracks?

I didn't really decide yet. I just kinda added stuff, we can make it weather/nighttime related if we want.

[jakerepp]

Just now, gusky said:

I didn't really decide yet. I just kinda added stuff, we can make it weather/nighttime related if we want.

Snow, Rocky Mountain High, Dancing in the Dark, Sunshine on my Shoulders...seemed like there was a theme

[GHweatherChris]

925s are continuing to cool.

[Gummy]

35 minutes ago, gusky said:

Is this WRF overestimating easterly drying?

That and also snowfall totals south of Everett.

[gusky]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Snow, Rocky Mountain High, Dancing in the Dark, Sunshine on my Shoulders...seemed like there was a theme

Those were actually unintentional, but yeah I see that now! I can see clearly now was intentional though.

[Blizzard777]

12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Reminds me of the old wireless phone adds using the bars!   This is the correct order 

[Blizzard777]

37* and East wind 1-6

Dew points in area around the 36 mark 

[Bryant]

35 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

How is it that the wrf and the gfs show me getting 8-10 inches and the RGEM and euro show me getting 3 lol? I’ve never had a situation where within 12 hours of the event theres been that much variation 

Literally happens all of the time

[Phishy Wx]

[BLI snowman]

Early Friday morning is starting to look like it could be a pretty significant windstorm. 12z GFS and ICON get pretty close to a major event for western OR.

 

[gusky]

It is actually slightly cooler for most of the early run, though. Consistently 1-2F cooler than 06z

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

whered they post this? dont see this on their twitter or page

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, gusky said:

It is actually slightly cooler for most of the early run, though. Consistently 1-2F cooler than 06z

Certainly looks significantly too warm for Bellingham since their currently 25/17 with outflow. Going to be a difficult race to get that colder drier air South of Skagit County today before the warm air advection begins though I think. Really close call for the Puget Sound area.

[GHweatherChris]

10 AM 925s

[gusky]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Certainly looks significantly too warm for Bellingham. Going to be a difficult race to get that colder drier air South of Skagit County today before the warm air advection begins though I think. Really close call for the Puget Sound area.

I'd like to think that it will end up in our favor, but I certainly see opportunity for the warm air to win out.

[Meatyorologist]

56 minutes ago, gusky said:

Is this WRF overestimating easterly drying?

Those are southerlies cutting away at the snow on this map, not the easterlies. You can see the wind barbs pointing SSW over the south Sound. If the wind patterns depicted here were accurate, this snowfall map would be alright. Peeking at precip maps this is warming+melting, not drying.

[joelgombiner]

OLM-BLI gradient is steepening a little, now down to -1.5 mb. This should help to pull a little of that cold Fraser outflow south through Seattle. 

But it's still a weak gradient. Absolutely no wind in N. Seattle at the moment. 

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Those are southerlies cutting away at the snow on this map, not the easterlies. You can see the wind barbs pointing SSW over the south Sound. If the wind patterns depicted here were accurate, this snowfall map would be alright. Peeking at precip maps this is warming+melting, not drying.

Thanks! I'm slowly learning more about the local weather. Still got a lot to learn.

[gusky]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Certainly looks significantly too warm for Bellingham since their currently 25/17 with outflow. Going to be a difficult race to get that colder drier air South of Skagit County today before the warm air advection begins though I think. Really close call for the Puget Sound area.

Yep, euro Is lost with the temps around Bellingham.  Also way off for snow there. Going to be more than that.

[gusky]

HRRR certainly paints a short lived picture. Snow really starts up around 3, turning to rain around 7

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm going to loose my mind missing out on that storm in Eastern Washington.  I could leave and I have workers here at my business but I have a hard time leaving and not feeling guilty.  To get two storms there in a 96hr period that each dump 8 inches is rare there.

[Tyler Mode]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Early Friday morning is starting to look like it could be a pretty significant windstorm. 12z GFS and ICON get pretty close to a major event for western OR.

 

Earlier it was looking strong for pdx, but now it’s shifted south some. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp was dropping a little this morning, down to 35 when I left for work and some wet snow was mixing in. I thought that was kind of weird given snow levels down here were supposed to be fairly high and going up to 7,000' later today. Then my wife just texts me and says its snowing and down to 33. I'm sure we'll get the expected warm up, but kind of interesting, and perhaps a good sign for folks much further north. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

HRRR certainly paints a short lived picture. Snow really starts up around 3, turning to rain around 7

And this is where it's tricky. Depending on wind and precip rates if we can actually get snow falling then it will probably last longer than forecast says. Normally these events have snow falling longer.