PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Phishy Wx]

maybe Spokane finally goes below 0 in the Feb blast, been almost 3 years

[T-Town]

Some fun colors on the water today. And… it’s sunny!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Obviously would love to be wrong here but I’m sensing next winter will be an El Niño dud. 

Maybe... Though last winter was a pretty big dud south of Portland, and 19-20 was a dud south of Everett... Hard to say, if we have some good stuff in February/March I will agree we are due for a dud regionally. If we continue this unending torch, which is basically what this winter has been outside of about 7-10 days south of Olympia, then I won't be so sure...

[Omegaraptor]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Obviously would love to be wrong here but I’m sensing next winter will be an El Niño dud. 

Not Oregon so much but Olympia to Bellingham has done insanely well for cold and snow in the last 5 years. Honestly western WA is kind of a due for a dud.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

55 in Corvallis with southerlies.

No N/S gradient at all today. Not only is it warmer here than in Eugene and Roseburg, but it’s warmer than nearly all of northern CA right now.

It's 57F here...

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's 57F here...

Twas 54 when I made that post

[Deweydog]

Getting a good feeling about January 2023…

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe... Though last winter was a pretty big dud south of Portland, and 19-20 was a dud south of Everett... Hard to say, if we have some good stuff in February/March I will agree we are due for a dud regionally. If we continue this unending torch, which is basically what this winter has been outside of about 7-10 days south of Olympia, then I won't be so sure...

We did get a little atleast in January 2020 but yeah pretty close to a dud. Western WA has just been on such a roll lately can’t imagine we’re going to make it 7 years in a row up here. Here at my location we’ve averaged almost 11” of snow the last 6 winters. 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Getting a good feeling about January 2023…

why?

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Getting a good feeling about January 2023…

[Phil]

10 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

****'s gonna flip on a dime once the calendar switches to February. This cold February phenomena is baffling. I have no earthly idea why (even when factoring out AGW warming) 1980-2022 climo has hated January and loved February so, so much...

The last FOUR years, starting 2018, have had Feb come in colder than Jan. By a ruthless margin. Wild. Feb 2019 came in at a savage 36.7°F, just 1.1°F warmer than the all time coldest Feb in 1956, and 8.3°F colder than January.

How climate change is expressed can be baffling (whether of anthropogenic or natural origin). Changes in seasonal dynamics/cycles, mean states, heat flows, etc, all in quasi-resonance, through which “climate change” arises, either internal to system dynamics or forced externally.

It is evident in all proxy data that the climate system generally jumps between quasi-stable mean states upon the crossing of unstable/fluid boundary condition thresholds. The same external “forcing” can/will trigger a wildly different system state response(s) from decade to decade, century to century, etc.

Keep that in mind, with respect to climate projections. We treat ECS/TCR to GHG forcing as if they’re static/can be projected from, when in reality they’re basically 100% state dependent.

And that’s only with regards to a **known** external forcing (such as GHG concentration). We can’t even begin to attempt to simulate naturally-arising climate change because it’s generally a result of changes to heat/radiation fluxes that arise from internal system state dynamics. So we’re relegated to modeling the simple stuff (like solar irradiance and aerosols) even though they’re probably not responsible for much (if any) of the longer term climate change.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

why?

Because it’s coming.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Because it’s coming.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Getting a good feeling about January 2023…

Hitting that early January El Niño window. 

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe... Though last winter was a pretty big dud south of Portland, and 19-20 was a dud south of Everett... Hard to say, if we have some good stuff in February/March I will agree we are due for a dud regionally. If we continue this unending torch, which is basically what this winter has been outside of about 7-10 days south of Olympia, then I won't be so sure...

19/20 was not terrible in the suburbs of Seattle area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

19/20 was not terrible in the suburbs of Seattle area. 

February and March were really decent here, but for the Willamette Valley it was pretty much a lost cause. 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Because it’s coming.

Lake Mazama is boiling 

[ShawniganLake]

First 50F here since December 1st.    down to 49F now. Just a very brief spike into the 50s today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eventually we'll have another 2014-15 dud, and I am not looking forward to it. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Because it’s coming.

How about February 2022?  

I am trying to remember a time when you went against the EPS and stuck with your prediction.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February and March were really decent here, but for the Willamette Valley it was pretty much a lost cause. 

It rained one night for a couple hours in Feb 2020. Snow came back in March but wasn't a great amount. 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How about February 2022?  

I am trying to remember a time when you went against the EPS and stuck with your prediction.  

to be fair, this upcoming stuff still looks kinda funky. And we are 10 days out, at the earliest. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

First 50F here since December 1st.    down to 49F now. Just a very brief spike into the 50s today. 

Wow... today is the 13th day at 50+ in North Bend just this month.     13 out of 20 days... 65% of the days.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Eventually we'll have another 2014-15 dud, and I am not looking forward to it. 

Yeah that’s what I foresee coming soon. We went from February 2014 to December 2016 with a measly 1/2” of snow that was gone 6 hours later.

[AlTahoe]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

How climate change is expressed can be baffling (whether of anthropogenic or natural origin). Changes in seasonal dynamics/cycles, mean states, heat flows, etc, all in quasi-resonance, through which “climate change” arises, either internal to system dynamics or forced externally.

It is evident in all proxy data that the climate system generally jumps between quasi-stable mean states upon the crossing of unstable/fluid boundary condition thresholds. The same external “forcing” can/will trigger a wildly different system state response(s) from decade to decade, century to century, etc.

Keep that in mind, with respect to climate projections. We treat ECS/TCR to GHG forcing as if they’re static/can be projected from, when in reality they’re basically 100% state dependent.

And that’s only with regards to a **known** external forcing (such as GHG concentration). We can’t even begin to attempt to simulate naturally-arising climate change because it’s generally a result of changes to heat/radiation fluxes that arise from internal system state dynamics. So we’re relegated to modeling the simple stuff (like solar irradiance and aerosols) even though they’re probably not responsible for much (if any) of the longer term climate change.

All I know is something wonky started going on with our winters starting in 2011-2012 till present. This Jan will be the 3rd driest ever recorded in 150 years for Tahoe. Following of course our Snowiest Dec. We seem to flip flop between one extreme or the other for the last 10 years with no semblance of average any more. Very strange. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

All I know is something wonky started going on with our winters starting in 2011-2012 till present. This Jan will be the 3rd driest ever recorded in 150 years for Tahoe. Following of course our Snowiest Dec. We seem to flip flop between one extreme or the other for the last 10 years with no semblance of average any more. Very strange. 

For here the 2013 flip was like night and day, it's not even remotely the same climate. 

[AlTahoe]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah that’s what I foresee coming soon. We went from February 2014 to December 2016 with a measly 1/2” of snow that was gone 6 hours later.

2014-2015 was a once in 500 or 1000 year winter for California depending on the study. Hopefully we never see one like that again in our lifetime. We hit 66F in Mid Jan 2015 at 6200'!!!!

[RentonHill]

Interesting Control run from the EPS

[Phishy Wx]

I blame the blob. (not the poster here, the actual N PAC phenomenon) that's been present a lot of the previous 10 years in some shape or form 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Weeklies out, each frame is a 5 day average.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

2014-2015 was a once in 500 or 1000 year winter for California depending on the study. Hopefully we never see one like that again in our lifetime. We hit 66F in Mid Jan 2015 at 6200'!!!!

I had nearly 60 days it didn't snow (not even wet flakes) from late December 2014 to late February 2015 in Klamath Falls.

That was by far the longest stretch I've seen it not snow, and since then they never went longer than a month without seeing some. 

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... today is the 13th day at 50+ in North Bend just this month.     13 out of 20 days... 65% of the days.

It’s been incredibly dull, drizzly and foggy here since the big snowstorm.  Pretty tough to hit 50 here without some sun or a strong Pineapple Express connection, in January. 

[BLI snowman]

47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I just noticed 78 and 79' were really cold out there too. 

But it is interesting how much colder our winters were in the 50s-60s compared to now, and looking at their stats the past 15 years, they have had several months that were colder than any month recorded when my Dad was growing up there during that time. 

It seems like their winters were more consistently cool, but in terms of extremes there hasn't been the same kind of difference we have seen here. February seems to have performed pretty well out there the past 15 years or so too. 

The 1950s were pretty mild for a lot of the East and SE especially. Lots of persistent -PNA patterns that decade that teleconnected with sprawling SE ridges. Still had some standout airmasses back there like November 1950, February 1951, and February 1958, but their winters weren't great in that decade unlike ours.

The 1960s were a much blockier period in general with deep -NAO and -PDO and more long lived extreme patterns. Stretches like March 1960, 1962-63, and late January 1966 were definitely more anomalous than anything the East has seen recently (post 2015).

You also had the big wave of mega arctic airmasses in the Eastern U.S. from 1976-85. Almost every winter in there had at least one extreme airmass that really stands out compared to what they see nowadays. 2013-14 and February 2015 bucked that trend a little, but even those are a little ways in the rearview mirror now.  So pretty similar to us. The extreme airmasses just aren't happening as often.

 

[Phil]

56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I just noticed 78 and 79' were really cold out there too. 

But it is interesting how much colder our winters were in the 50s-60s compared to now, and looking at their stats the past 15 years, they have had several months that were colder than any month recorded when my Dad was growing up there during that time. 

It seems like their winters were more consistently cool, but in terms of extremes there hasn't been the same kind of difference we have seen here. February seems to have performed pretty well out there the past 15 years or so too. 

The 1950s-1970s had a consistent -NAO/-PNA mean state. It’s a colder regime from a climatological standpoint across the W-Hem middle latitudes as well as the high arctic (less WAA to the CAB via the NATL).

Would love to return to this.

[AlTahoe]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I had nearly 60 days it didn't snow (not even wet flakes) from late December 2014 to late February 2015 in Klamath Falls.

That was by far the longest stretch I've seen it not snow, and since then they never went longer than a month without seeing some. 

I had 11" of snow Oct-March. I never had a single day with snow cover as the trace to 2" amounts would melt immediately after falling. 

Echo summit recorded 0" of snow on the ground during the April 1st snow survey. I think the lowest ever before that was 38" during the 1976-1977 drought winter. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The 1950s were pretty mild for a lot of the East and SE especially. Lots of persistent -PNA patterns that decade that teleconnected with sprawling SE ridges. Still had some standout airmasses back there like November 1950, February 1951, and February 1958, but their winters weren't great in that decade unlike ours.

The 1960s were a much blockier period in general with deep -NAO and -PDO and more long lived extreme patterns. Stretches like March 1960, 1962-63, and late January 1966 were definitely more anomalous than anything the East has seen recently (post 2015).

You also had the big wave of mega arctic airmasses in the Eastern U.S. from 1976-85. Almost every winter in there had at least one extreme airmass that really stands out compared to what they see nowadays. 2013-14 and February 2015 bucked that trend a little, but even those are a little ways in the rearview mirror now.  So pretty similar to us. The extreme airmasses just aren't happening as often.

 

Interestingly, the difference between the mean states of the 1950s and 1960s is surprisingly subtle. They’re very similar. But those small, subtle changes are all it takes to massively change regional outcomes.

The 1950s was actually one of the most -NAO dominant decades of the last century. Only the 1960s beats it.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weeklies out, each frame is a 5 day average.

 

As you can probably deduce from those maps, nearly all EPS members now develop a super +NAM/+NAO pattern in late February and March. Could be looking at widespread late-winter warmth across the CONUS.

However, a possible consequence of a coupled super +NAM is a belated/dynamic final warming, which could lead to some serious cold anomalies in April/May, somewhere in the CONUS.

[AlTahoe]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

As you can probably deduce from those maps, nearly all EPS members now develop a super +NAM/+NAO pattern in late February and March. Could be looking at widespread late-winter warmth across the CONUS.

However, a possible consequence of a coupled super +NAM is a belated/dynamic final warming, which could lead to some serious cold anomalies in April/May, somewhere in the CONUS.

Hmm if that's the case we could be looking at a repeat of 2002-2003. We had a record snowy Dec 2002 with nothing again till a record snowy April 2003. 

[Kayla]

Our February 2019 redux is starting to get into the CPC range now...

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Our February 2019 redux is starting to get into the CPC range now...

Are you thinking a February 2019 redux is going to happen?