PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

10 degrees warmer here. Mostly sunny with some high clouds. 

I think a lot of places will be colder tomorrow as the low level cold increases its grip.  Hard to say exactly how that will evolve due to changing gradient angles.  I'm really surprised how fast this inversion tightened its grip here.  It got colder here so quickly because of this areas access to drier air seeping in which allowed it to get colder last night.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Even watching from afar it’s crazy how ma’ nature trolls you guys every January. The timing is so on point it feels deliberate.

HARP

[TacomaWaWx]

40 degrees and the sky is clearing here a bit. Gonna be some good playoff games today and tomorrow not really rooting for anyone in particular just hope they’ll be close good games. 

[TacomaWaWx]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see what happens the next few runs.  It would be surprising to not get another round this winter after scoring in December in a Nina winter.

Well there’s still time for something interesting like late February 2018 if early February doesn’t work out…we will see the stuff early next month isn’t dead yet. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well there’s still time for something interesting like late February 2018 if early February doesn’t work out…we will see the stuff early next month isn’t dead yet. 

Maybe a March special this year.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well there’s still time for something interesting like late February 2018 if early February doesn’t work out…we will see the stuff early next month isn’t dead yet. 

Absolutely.  There have been some model runs that show the first attempt biffing it, but show us scoring later.

[snow_wizard]

I think one interesting thing about the ensembles is both the GEFS and EPS have a notable number of very cold members.  Kind of an unusual mix.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

47 and sun for days here. Ahhhhh, my eyes. Bring back the gloom please. 

[MossMan]

Well since everyone has packed it in for this season I might as well start thinking about those amazing warm days at Lake Entiat again…Ahhhhhh!

[FroYoBro]

All sunshine here and up to 50 degrees. Nice day. Hope we can at least keep the clear skies for some colder lows. 

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS looks a lot better than the 12z as far as it's run so far.

[Kuna_Idaho_Dude]

Cant wait! 

[Slushy Inch]

18z is much improved.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

All sunshine here and up to 50 degrees. Nice day. Hope we can at least keep the clear skies for some colder lows. 

Amazing how different it is here.  Only 35 and solid low clouds right now.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

18z is much improved.

Indeed.

[Slushy Inch]

A bit of a shift north and east with this trough and Western Washington will be looking good. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like those really cold ensemble members aren't totally nuts after all.  This GFS run goes to show how the general pieces are there for something great.  It all comes down to details in the evolution.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

A bit of a shift north and east with this trough and Western Washington will be looking good. 

That's a pretty block.  The next few frames should be interesting.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's a pretty block.  The next few frames should be interesting.

It sure is. Nice to see agreement with EPS.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it's back on again.  I hope people were joking about thinking this was over.  Typical model behavior.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's back on again.  I hope people were joking about thinking this was over.  Typical model behavior.

A couple light snow events for western Washington to boot, could be a lot more with minor adjustments.

[snow_wizard]

How low will it go?

[Slushy Inch]

Wow GEFS is even better than GFS with more troughing on the 29th than the OP. Reminds me of that one CMC run that was really good.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

A couple light snow events for western Washington to boot, could be a lot more with minor adjustments.

Hopefully this place will wake up again now.  Let's see if the GEFS lends some support to this.

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's back on again.  I hope people were joking about thinking this was over.  Typical model behavior.

Too early to call either way lol…even with full sunshine here only up to 43. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

How low will it go?

Areas of the Puget sound lowlands have the potential to get four days in a row of snow fall if everything is positioned perfectly.

[Slushy Inch]

What a beast!

[snow_wizard]

Hard to complain about this!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

What a beast!

Vodka cold on this run.

[Slushy Inch]

Can't remember ever seeing such a continuous stalling of a perfect pattern like in the 18z gfs.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Hard to complain about this!

Looks like it’s about 3 miles too far west. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Vodka cold on this run.

Doesn't get that cold but looks to stay in the low thirties and twenties throughout.

[snow_wizard]

Really top drawer run.

[lowlandsnow]

Portland does really well not as much snow in Seattle though

[Gradient Keeper]

Drunk uncle off the wagon again, or is it on the wagon. I don't know. What I do know is a drunk and a wagon is involved to some extent. Here we go!

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 29 minutes

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Doesn't get that cold but looks to stay in the low thirties and twenties throughout.

I think it will get REALLY cold before the run is over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

45 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

All sunshine here and up to 50 degrees. Nice day. Hope we can at least keep the clear skies for some colder lows. 

Jim says this is not possible. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it will get REALLY cold before the run is over.

Probably once the low pressure exits and there are some clear nights.

[snow_wizard]

Vodka anyone?