PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[snow_wizard]

The control model on the GEFS was even colder than the operational.

[Canadian guy]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably the worst ensemble run in 4-5 days. Trend continues sadly. Still some potential, but Matt was right.

Seems to be quite a bit of potential to me. If you get rid of some of those warm members then the mean will start looking pretty nice.
 

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Because we've lived here our whole lives.

I don't buy it.  It's not like it hasn't gotten cold in recent winters.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Canadian guy said:

Seems to be quite a bit of potential to me. If you get rid of some of those warm members then the mean will start looking pretty nice.
 

We have a whole bunch of glass half empty people on here.  All anyone is saying is this thing could work out.

[gusky]

Back to watching Hr 384 maps for big snow

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably the worst ensemble run in 4-5 days. Trend continues sadly. Still some potential, but Matt was right.

Maybe. Probably. We'll see.

[snow_wizard]

5 consecutive highs of 30 or lower for SEA on the 18z GFS.  If that happened that would be 10 freezing highs for the winter.  It also showed a low of 3 on the final day.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

Back to watching Hr 384 maps for big snow

It falls before hour 384 obviously.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Maybe. Probably. We'll see.

We go through this every time.  I'm sure you remember that.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The GEFS control has gone -13 or lower on 850s for the last 4 runs.  Might mean something.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It could work out, but 99/100 times it doesn't. 

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It could work out, but 99/100 times it doesn't. 

92/100

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 15 minutes

[Deweydog]

Y’all are making Jim mad. Stop it.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Wow! Still alive 22 days into January.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It could work out, but 99/100 times it doesn't. 

Not true.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Y’all are making Jim mad. Stop it.

It's fine.

[Anti Marine Layer]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It could work out, but 99/100 times it doesn't. 

Where are your stats?

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

92/100

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 15 minutes

I think it works out a lot more often when you have the right context, the EPS on board, and multiple other models on board for several runs.  All of which we have/had this time.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Where are your stats?

You are asking someone that has already had a huge snow event this winter.  In other words he doesn't have them.

[snow_wizard]

The newest analog on the 18z GFS was 1989.  Love seeing that!  It is kind of interesting to note that the good and bad runs of the GFS have basically had the same analogs.  Goes to show the big picture is good.

[TacomaWaWx]

Already down to 37 here. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Already down to 37 here. 

I was hoping the clearing you got might help out.  It never cleared out here, but the low clouds are lowering into fog which means it will still be able to cool tonight.  I think the colder temps will be more widespread tomorrow.

[T-Town]

Great sunset. Down to 39 here. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

35 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Wow! Still alive 22 days into January.

It has not been split into a new topic by iFred

[T-Town]

Looks like some low clouds are forming in place here. 

[GHweatherChris]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Forgot to post Portland…

Where's Portland?

[GHweatherChris]

Today was one of the nicest June days in recent memory. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother hit 68 in Coquille today.

[Deweydog]

D**n boy!!!

PDX avoided 50 despite several hours of sunshine and late January son angels.

[SouthHillFrosty]

My gf ft me showing a nice sunset in Seattle. Here in the swamp, we never lost our clouds

[Tyler Mode]

Yesterday's annoying cloud cover apparently lead to today's bonus sunshine.  Only dropped to 37 last night, and it was easy to mix out today around noon.  Now with clear skies it's dropped down to 39 already after a high of 47.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A 41.5F temp avg today so we should be right at normal. Nice day!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are still in the ballgame, don't get me wrong. Things just don't look as good today as they did a few days ago. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are still in the ballgame, don't get me wrong. Things just don't look as good today as they did a few days ago. 

How many outs?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are still in the ballgame, don't get me wrong. Things just don't look as good today as they did a few days ago. 

Down by 10 with all 3 timeouts and 4 mins to go, got the opponent in 3rd and long.

[jakerepp]

53 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Great sunset. Down to 39 here. 

It was gorgeous!

I didn't put that vignette on it.

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Hard to complain about this!

I don't like the shape of it.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Down by 10 with all 3 timeouts and 4 mins to go, got the opponent in 3rd and long.

In their own territory and it’s a home game. Maybe down by only 9.  

[Weiner Warrior]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Back to watching Hr 384 maps for big snow

That's not enough total snow. Throw it out.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Ended up sunny most of the day here...46/37 for the temps.  We did have some thick fog roll through about 8am, but it was gone by 9:30 or so.

I was able to get out and get the Christmas lights down, washed the road grime off both cars, and finally got the traction sand washed off the driveway.

 

Spending this evening shopping for new living room furniture, stove and dishwasher while watching the pack/niners game.